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ORIGINAL RESEARCH

A Novel Nomogram to Predict Prognosis in Elderly Early-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients After Ablation Therapy

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Pages 901-911 | Received 12 Jan 2024, Accepted 07 May 2024, Published online: 16 May 2024

Figures & data

Table 1 Demographic and Clinical Characteristics of the Patients in Two Cohorts

Figure 1 Screening of variables using Lasso regression and Random Survival Forest (A) The variation characteristics of variable coefficients in Lasso regression; (B) The process of selecting the optimal value for the parameter λ in the Lasso regression model was conducted through a cross-validation method. (C) Error rate of the Random Survival Forest; (D) Out-of-bag variable importance ranking of the Random Survival Forest.

Abbreviations: T.N, Tumor number; T.S, Tumor size; GGT, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase; PTA, prothrombin time activity; AFP, alpha fetoprotein; RBC, red blood cell; Palb, prealbumin; PTR, Prothrombin Time Ratio; INR, international normalized ratio; NLR, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio; DBIL, direct bilirubin; Alb, albumin; Fib, fibrous protein; TBIL: total bilirubin; APTTR, activated partial thromboplastin time ratio; ALT, alanine aminotransferase; TT, thrombin time; PLR, platelet to lymphocyte ratio.
Figure 1 Screening of variables using Lasso regression and Random Survival Forest (A) The variation characteristics of variable coefficients in Lasso regression; (B) The process of selecting the optimal value for the parameter λ in the Lasso regression model was conducted through a cross-validation method. (C) Error rate of the Random Survival Forest; (D) Out-of-bag variable importance ranking of the Random Survival Forest.

Figure 2 Nomogram for predicting time-related recurrence in elderly patients with early-stage HCC after ablation therapy.

Figure 2 Nomogram for predicting time-related recurrence in elderly patients with early-stage HCC after ablation therapy.

Figure 3 Comparison of ROC curves for the original scoring system at various time points in both the primary (A) and validation (B) cohorts.

Abbreviations: ROC, receiver operating characteristics; AUC, the area under the curve.
Figure 3 Comparison of ROC curves for the original scoring system at various time points in both the primary (A) and validation (B) cohorts.

Figure 4 Calibration plots of predicted 1-, 3-, and 5-year RFS based on Cox regression modeling in the primary and validation cohorts. (A) primary cohort; (B) validation cohort.

Abbreviation: RFS, recurrence-free survival.
Figure 4 Calibration plots of predicted 1-, 3-, and 5-year RFS based on Cox regression modeling in the primary and validation cohorts. (A) primary cohort; (B) validation cohort.

Figure 5 The DCA curves of the original scoring system in 1, 3, and 5 years of RFS in the primary (A) and validation (B) cohorts.

Abbreviations: RFS, recurrence-free survival; DCA, decision curve analysis.
Figure 5 The DCA curves of the original scoring system in 1, 3, and 5 years of RFS in the primary (A) and validation (B) cohorts.

Figure 6 The risk stratification for RFS is based on the nomogram risk scores in the primary (A) and validation (B) cohorts.

Abbreviation: RFS, recurrence-free survival.
Figure 6 The risk stratification for RFS is based on the nomogram risk scores in the primary (A) and validation (B) cohorts.