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Abstract
Background: Cultivation of raw material represents a large proportion of biofuels´ GHG emissions. The EU renewable energy directive 2009/28/EC specifies a GHG emission default value for cultivation of biofuel raw material (23 g CO2-e/MJ ethanol for wheat). The aim of this study was to quantify the uncertainty in GHG emissions for wheat cultivation in Sweden, considering uncertainty and variability in data at farm level. Results: Two levels of data collection at farm level were analyzed; simple (only yield and amount of N) and advanced (also including amounts and types of energy). The 2.5–97.5 percentile uncertainty for Swedish winter wheat was 20–27 g CO2-e/MJ, which can be considered large in the context of the Directive’s threshold of 23 g (to two significant figures). Conclusion: It is concluded that quantifying GHG emissions in order to regulate biofuels is a difficult task, especially emissions from cultivation, since these are biological systems with large variability.
Acknowledgments
The authors wish to acknowledge the help of S Karlsson (Lantmännen R&D, Stockholm) and J Nordenblad (SvenskaFoder, Lidköping, Sweden) in data collection.
Financial & competing interests disclosure
This research was carried out with financial support from The Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (Formas). The authors have no other relevant affiliations or financial involvement with any organization or entity with a financial interest in or financial conflict with the subject matter or materials discussed in the manuscript apart from those disclosed.
No writing assistance was utilized in the production of this manuscript.