Figures & data
Figure 1. (A) Epidemiological predictions for cumulative number of cases in Sierra Leone based on the SIR birth-death (BD) model for the phylogenetic tree prior. The gray region indicates the time during which sequences were collected (from day 147 – 169) and the black dots are the actual cumulative number of cases reported through Sept 10 (Day 253). Light green lines show the trajectories of stochastic model simulations, and the solid dark blue line indicates the deterministic solution (with the dashed dark blue lines indicating 95% confidence intervals and the dotted blue lines the 50% confidence intervals). (B) The same comparison as in panel A, but using the coalescent model with exponential growth (EXP) for the phylogenetic tree prior. (C) Bayesian Skyline skyline with 95% HPD inferred using the BS coalescent model for the phylogenetic tree prior.
