Predictive tools for university performance: an explorative study

Abstract

The role of mathematics in secondary-tertiary transition is subject to increasing analysis in several education contexts. We explore the longitudinal relationships among a standardized test used for assessing secondary school mathematics, high school final grades and the academic progress of a sample of Italian undergraduates. Results from regression analyses showed that the standardized test and high school final grades together are predictive both of the student's academic success in terms of Grade Point Average and of academic credits earned, whereas a more specific relationship emerged between the standardized test and the mathematics exam. This study provides findings on the importance of secondary school mathematics as a predictor of university performance, even in courses where mathematics is a service subject.

Keywords:

• Tertiary education
• mathematics education
• large-scale assessment
• university performance
• predictive validity

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank INVALSI for supplying the items used for the test analyses presented in this paper. Nevertheless, the views and opinions expressed in this article are purely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view and the official policy or position of INVALSI or its Management.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1 second cycle of instruction also comprises regional vocational and training courses. These courses last three or four years and do not give direct access to university degree programs.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Open Access Publishing Fund of the Free University of Bozen-Bolzano.