Teaching and learning about risk

Early in the vaccination programme, several governments halted roll-out of the so-called Oxford vaccine. A number of people had very sadly died from blood clots after being vaccinated. At that stage, their decision appeared unwise. The number of deaths was no more than would be expected from ‘natural causes’ (Spiegelhalter 2021), and the chance of dying from Covid-19 was (and still is) much higher than the chance of dying from a blood clot after vaccination.

So how do we make sense of their decision at the time? Schneider et al. (2021) identified trust as a key predictor of risk perception in relation to Covid-19. If you don’t trust the people who are telling you about Covid-19, your perception of disease risk is lower; if you don’t trust what they are saying about vaccination, your perception of vaccination risk is higher. Hence, governments’ decisions may have been taken to maintain public trust, and preserve the vaccination programme in the long term. Indeed, communicating with the public based on data may itself have been ineffective. Schneider et al. found that numbers of confirmed Covid-19 cases was a less important predictor of risk perception than people’s direct experience with the virus, prosocial tendencies, individual worldviews, and personal and collective efficacy. This suggests that developing our own students’ understanding of risk may be complex.

Levinson et al. (2011) highlight why risk is challenging to teach because of its contested conceptual basis incorporating epistemic and non-epistemic values, its situated nature and its reliance on probability and statistics. Hansen and Hammann (2017) identified three types of knowledge as important: (1) scientific knowledge and knowledge about statistics and probability, (2) knowledge about science, including uncertainty, and (3) knowledge about risk assessment, including risk-benefit analysis, ethical deliberations, and decision-making. Schenk et al. (2019) developed a model for teaching and learning about risk, which focuses at its core on consequence, and the need to engage students with uncertainty, probability, and severity of the consequence. They highlighted the role of objective and subjective components, lying on the interface between knowledge and values. Teaching which starts from science content must find ways to relate that knowledge to students’ values, and teaching which starts from values must provide opportunities to engage with knowledge as part of students’ reasoning. Such an approach may itself provide opportunity to engage with students’ worldviews, and give them a sense of personal and collective efficacy.

Based on more recent data, some governments have now restricted the use of the Oxford vaccine to particular age groups. Public statements that a vaccine is safe, not safe, and then safe only for particular age groups may themselves cause mistrust. As biology educators, it is more important than ever that we build students’ decision-making about risk, and hence allow them to understand the decision-making of others, and make informed decisions for themselves.