Africa’s Evolving Employment Trends

Abstract

Using nationally representative data from nine countries, we document demographic and employment trends in Africa’s workforce based on full-time labour equivalents (FTE). The FTE approach takes account of individuals’ multiple jobs throughout the year and is therefore likely to give more accurate estimates of the pace of structural transformation. Since 2000, Africa has experienced a sharp decline in the share of its labour force in farming. Because of the seasonal nature of farming, the share of the labour force remaining in farming is substantially lower using the FTE approach than when examined in terms of individuals’ primary sources of employment or total numbers of jobs. Using the FTE approach, the share of the labour force in farming ranges across the nine countries from 35 per cent in Ghana to 54 per cent in Rwanda. Employment in off-farm segments of agri-food systems is expanding rapidly in percentage terms, but in terms of absolute numbers, non-farm activities are by far the major source of employment outside of farming. Contrary to widespread perceptions, the mean age of adults engaged primarily in farming is not rising – in fact it is falling slightly in some countries and remains stable in most others. The pace at which the labour force is shifting out of agriculture is strongly and positively tied to the rate of lagged farm productivity growth. Given the unprecedented growth in the number of young Africans entering the labour market, an effective youth employment strategy in most African countries will rely on massive job expansion, which in turn will rely on the multiplier effects of agricultural productivity growth. Strategies that raise the returns to labour in farming therefore remain crucial for achieving rapid economic transformation and may constitute the core of effective youth employment strategies.

Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge support for this study from the Gates Foundation-funded Guiding Investments in Sustainable Agricultural Intensification in Africa (GISAIA) Project, from the USAID-funded Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy (FSP), and from the MasterCard-funded Agrifood Youth Employment and Engagement Study (AgYEES) to Michigan State University. The authors also appreciate discussions of earlier versions of this study with David Atwood, Alemayehu Konde, Meredith Lee, Milu Muyanga, and David Tschirley.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. Six of the world’s 10 fastest growing economies between 2000 and 2010 were in Africa. The region’s average GDP growth was 4.84 per cent during this period, but it has slowed slightly between 2011–2015 to 3.89 per cent (World Development Indicators, 2017).

2. LSMS-ISA surveys are implemented by national statistical offices with technical assistance from the World Bank Economic Research Group. Datasets and survey descriptions for the various countries can be found at http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/EXTLSMS/0,,contentMDK:23,617,057~pagePK:64,168,445~piPK:64,168,309~theSitePK:3,358,997,00.html .

3. Specific surveys used are Ghana’s Living Standard Survey (GLSS 5 and 6); Nigeria’s Living Standard Survey (2004) and General Household Survey (2013); Rwanda’s Integrated Household Living Survey (EICV 2 and 3); Tanzania National Panel Survey (2009 and 2015); Uganda’s National Panel Survey (2005, 2012); Zambia’s Labor Force Surveys (2005, 2012); Data for Kenya’s Population and Housing Census (1999 and 2000), Malawi’s Household and Population Census (1998 and 2009) and Mali’s Quatrieme recensement general de la population et de l’habitat (1998 and 2009) were obtained from IPUMS (https://international.ipums.org/international/).

4. By ILO (1982) definition, an individual cannot be classified as unemployed if he/she has worked for even one hour on any economic activity including household enterprises during the reference period.

5. Agriculture is defined in the traditional sense to include crop and livestock production, hunting and related services, forestry and logging and fishery and aquaculture.

6. In most countries, the 15–24 year age range spans the period during which secondary and tertiary education is obtained.

7. TFP growth rates were obtained from the Economic Research Service Total Factor Productivity Database, courtesy of Keith Fuglie.

8. Africa sector data is compiled by the Groningen Growth and Development Center and is available at http://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/10-sector/.

Additional information

Funding

We gratefully acknowledge funding for this study from The MasterCard Foundation through the Agri-food Youth Employment and Engagement Study (AgYees), the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation through the Guiding Investments in Sustainable Agricultural Intensification in Africa (GISAIA) grant, and the Food Security Policy Innovation Lab to Michigan State University, funded by USAID’s Bureau for Food Security.