Conditioning Factors for Re-election and Incumbency Advantage after a Natural Disaster: Evidence from a Large-scale Earthquake

Abstract

Since the public assessment of political leadership is more evident during crisis events, natural disasters have become a plausible explanation for electoral outcomes and public support. This imposes a prominent challenge for developing countries, which are less prepared to deal with catastrophes. This paper proposes a theoretical and an empirical approach to evaluate the unrestricted and conditional impact of natural disasters on the continuity of local authorities. Our theoretical framework treats natural disasters as an exogenous shock that is beyond the incumbent’s influence but provides valuable information to rational voters about high-quality candidates. The empirical approach uses county-level data to test this model by estimating the impact of the Chile earthquake occurred in 2010 on re-election probability and incumbent mayor’s vote share. Aggregate- and individual-level evidence shows that incumbents’ continuity is not unconditionally threatened due to the earthquake, but contingent on conditioning factors that exacerbate or mitigate its negative effect on incumbency advantage. That is, local governments with higher human capital endowments and a better post-disaster assessment are more likely to be re-elected in Chile.

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the Ministry of Social Development of Chile for providing the data from the household survey of National Socioeconomic Characterization (CASEN). Data were also supplied by the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) at Vanderbilt University, which takes no responsibility for any interpretation of the data. Thanks are also due to the participants at the 2017 Annual Conference of the Chilean Society of Economists (SECHI), IX Meeting of the Chilean Society of Regional Studies (SOCHER), and the research seminar of the Department of Economics and Finance (University of Bio-Bio) for constructive comments. Finally, they especially thank Dr. Carlos Oyarzún for his helpful comments on an earlier version of the paper. All results are the authors’ responsibility.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Supplementary materials

Supplementary Materials are available for this article which can be accessed via the online version of this journal available at https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2021.1887477

Notes

1. Chile is an interesting case to evaluate the effect of natural disasters. The country is located in a highly seismic area called the ‘Ring of Fire’ and has an extensive record of large-scale earthquakes during the twentieth century. In fact, the Chilean population has experienced ten earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or greater on the Richter scale (including the strongest on record in 1960). And three of them have occurred since 2010: 8.2 in Iquique, 2014; 8.3 in Illapel, 2015, and; 8.8 in offshore Cobquecura, 2010 (USGS, 2016).

2. Additional research has shown that unanticipated natural shocks have caused enormous monetary damages, thereby affecting long-term growth rates of countries, and exacerbating territorial disparities (Barone & Mocetti, 2014; Cavallo, Powell, & Becerra, 2010). Other consequences on migrations have also been reported to be significant (Boustan, Kahn, & Rhode, 2012). The magnitude of these effects depends on the type of natural shock (geophysical versus meteorological disasters), country income, and quality of institutions (Felbermayr & Gröschl, 2014).

3. In Chile, right-wing mayors were those affiliated with the political parties Renovación Nacional (RN) and Unión Demócrata Independiente (UDI). Analogously, left-wing mayors were those associated with the political parties Democracia Cristiana (DC), Partido Socialista de Chile (PS), Partido por la Democracia (PPD), Partido Radical Socialdemócrata (PRSD), Partido Humanista (PH), Movimiento Amplio Social (MAS), Partido Progresista (PRO), Partido Regionalista de los Independientes (PRI), and Partido Comunista de Chile (PC).

4. The 2012 wave of the AmericasBarometer survey included a few questions related to a post-disaster assessment of elected local authorities in Chile. In particular, respondents were asked to express their willingness to re-elect the incumbent mayor and evaluate the progress of reconstruction efforts on their own county (LAPOP, 2012).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Office of Research (Dirección de Investigación y Creación Artística) at University of Bio-Bio, Chile, under the research project ‘Economía política en Chile y América Latina: Democracia, instituciones y participación’ [grant number 2030436 IF/R].