Sex and mortality: Real risk and perceived vulnerability

The public's perceived susceptibility to health risks does not always accurately reflect the epidemiological estimates of actual risk. We assessed whether this discrepancy exists for HIV infection by outlining and comparing the actual statistical probabilities of acquiring HIV and another sexually transmitted disease (chlamydia) with the perceived probabilities of acquiring these diseases for heterosexuals who do not use intravenous drugs. Our analysis of heterosexual college students' perceived probabilities revealed that they do not distinguish between chlamydia and HIV infection: Their predictions are accurate estimates of the probability of chlamydial infection but overestimates of the probability of HIV infection. We also found no relationship between the frequency of participants' risk‐reducing behaviors and their perceived probability of HIV infection.