The ABC of demographic behaviour: How the interplays of alleles, brains, and contexts over the life course should shape research aimed at understanding population processes

1. John Hobcraft is Professor of Social Policy and Demography at the University of York. E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract

This paper proposes core innovations in the strategy of research on demographic behaviour. One aim is a shift of attention away from events and towards a focus on dynamic processes and their interplay: away from a preoccupation with marriage and divorce, births, deaths, migrations, and household structure towards a broader perspective that takes account of partnership and intimacy, parenthood, potential and well-being, position in society and space, and personal ties. Another aim is a much closer engagement with genetics, neuroscience, psychology, and behavioural economics. A third aim is a strategy that pays more attention to pathways within the individual, to the processes entailed when the individual interacts with various contexts, and to progressions that involve the interplay of the pathways and processes through the life course. These shifts of emphasis, which have already begun to occur, require a systematic reassessment of priorities for research on demographic behaviour.

Keywords:

• demographic research
• genetics
• neuroscience
• psychology
• behavioural economics
• theory
• research strategy
• life course

Acknowledgments

Work on this paper was facilitated through extended stays at the Center for Health and Well-being, the Center for Research on Child Well-being, and the Office of Population Research at Princeton University, and the Demography Department at the Australian National University. Both universities provided a stimulating intellectual environment and access to libraries that covered genetics, neuroscience, and psychology; my recent move to the University of York has helped this process further, with new colleagues John Hey and Andy Young providing needed reassurance on revised sections of the draft. I am deeply indebted to friends and colleagues far too numerous to list, for their insights, knowledge, and support in learning about the issues addressed in the paper over an extended period. I have benefited from several extended discussions with Kathleen Kiernan, Bob and Nancy Michael, Nina Segre, and my many friends in Princeton, especially over regular dinners with Sara McLanahan, Irv Garfinkel, Anne Case, and Angus Deaton who provided much help in clarifying my ideas. I have also benefited from feedback in seminars at ANU and the Universities of Chicago, Princeton, and Johns Hopkins, and from a day-long discussion with Chris Bachrach, Jennifer Johnson-Hanks, Hans-Peter Kohler, and Phil Morgan on parenthood issues whilst revising the paper. Finally, I should like to acknowledge the valuable comments I have received on the complete draft manuscript from Tom Burch, John Bynner, Angus Deaton, Kathleen Kiernan, Steve Martin, Bob Michael, Mike Rutter, Jackie Scott, and eight anonymous referees.

Notes

1. John Hobcraft is Professor of Social Policy and Demography at the University of York. E-mail: [email protected]