On the decomposition of life expectancy and limits to life

Abstract

Life expectancy is a measure of how long people are expected to live and is widely used as a measure of human development. Variations in the measure reflect not only the process of ageing but also the impacts of such events as epidemics, wars, and economic recessions. Since 1950, the influence of these events in the most developed countries has waned and life expectancy continues to lengthen unabated. As a result, it has become more difficult to forecast long-run trends accurately, or identify possible upper limits. We present new methods for comparing past improvements in life expectancy and also future prospects, using data from five developed, low-mortality countries. We consider life expectancy in 10-year age intervals rather than over the remaining lifetime, and show how natural limits to life expectancy can be used to extrapolate trends. We discuss the implications and compare our approach with other commonly used methods.

Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2014.972433

Keywords:

• decomposition
• life expectancy
• limits to life
• developed countries

Notes

1. Les Mayhew and David Smith are at the Faculty of Actuarial Science and Insurance, Cass Business School, City University London, 106 Bunhill Row, London EC1Y 8TZ, UK. E-mail: [email protected]