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Abstract
The ongoing encroachment of urban land into natural landscapes has resulted in the degradation of ecosystems throughout Europe. Understanding why the share of urban land has increased is important for managing urban growth and maintaining ecosystem services. We estimate a model of landscape change that integrates geospatial and socioeconomic data in a spatial autoregressive model to explain the variance in urban growth observed in Germany between 2000 and 2006. In doing so, we test several determinants of urbanization identified by theoretical frameworks from landscape ecology and economics, including landscape pattern and transit infrastructure. The results show that despite planning guidelines and policies to promote dense development, urban growth has been extensive. Regions with a high degree of fragmented land and the prevalence of environmental amenities are characterized by particularly strong growth, pointing to challenges in crafting landscape policies that balance economic development with environmental conservation.
城市土地不断侵入自然地景，已导致全欧洲生态系统的恶化。理解城市土地为何增加, 对管理城市成长与维持生态系统服务而言相当重要。我们评估一个在空间自迴归模型中整合地理空间与社会经济数据的地景变迁模型, 以解释 2000 年至 2006 年间在德国观察到的城市成长之变化。为此, 我们检验由地景生态学与经济学理论架构所指认的若干决定因素, 包括地景模式与交通基础建设。研究结果显示, 规划方针与政策虽提倡高密度的发展, 但城市仍大范围成长。具有高度破碎土地与环境舒适度盛行之区域, 以特别高度的成长为特徵, 指向了打造能够平衡经济发展与环境保存的地景政策之挑战。
La invasión en curso de los paisajes naturales por usos urbanos ha resultado en degradación de los ecosistemas en toda Europa. Entender por qué la cuota de tierra urbana se ha incrementado es importante para el manejo del crecimiento de las ciudades y el mantenimiento de los servicios ecosistémicos. Calculamos un modelo sobre el cambio del paisaje en el que se integran datos geoespaciales y socioeconómicos en una estructura espacial auto-regresiva para explicar la varianza en el crecimiento urbano observado en Alemania entre el 2000 y el 2006. Al hacer esto, pusimos a prueba varios determinantes de la urbanización identificados por marcos teóricos de la ecología del paisaje y la economía, incluyendo el patrón paisajístico y la infraestructura del tráfico. Los resultados indican que, a pesar de las guías de planificación y las políticas para promover el desarrollo densificado, el crecimiento urbano ha sido vasto. Las regiones que tienen un alto grado de tierra fragmentada y en donde predominan las facilidades ambientales se caracterizan por un crecimiento particularmente fuerte, apuntando a retos por el diseño y aplicación de políticas paisajistas que equilibren el desarrollo económico con la conservación ambiental.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to acknowledge the University of Bremen, Fakultät für Geowissenschafften, for the use of their GIS lab. We also extend our thanks to Gundars Rudzitis for his time spent reviewing the article and help in the environmental amenity literature. The authors especially wish to thank the two anonymous reviews for their extensive feedback and invaluable critiques, which have greatly enhanced this article.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Rose Keller
ROSE KELLER serves the National Park Service as the regional lead Social Scientist for Denali National Park and Preserve, Division of Resources, Denali Park, AK 99743. E-mail: [email protected]. She coordinates all social science research in the park and conducts studies to target how the park has changed over time with varied human use, how landscape alters human mobility, and the role of place in the traditional subsistence of the region's Native villages.
Colin Vance
COLIN VANCE is a Professor in the Department of Social and Economic Sciences at Jacobs University Bremen, Bremen, Germany 28759. E-mail: [email protected]. His research interests include transportation, human mobility, valuation of protected areas, and econometric methods.