Risk factors of recurrent pancreatitis after first acute pancreatitis attack: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Background and aims: Few studies have been conducted in Asia on the recurrence of acute pancreatitis (AP). This study was designed to investigate characteristics of the disease to predict recurrence.

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 617 patients that experienced a first AP attack between January 2009 and December 2014. Based on reviews of clinical and follow-up data, we attempted to identify risk factors of recurrence using Cox regression analysis.

Results: During a median follow-up of 3.2 years (range 3–72 months), 100(16.2%) of the 617 study subjects experienced one or more episodes of recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP). Of these 100 patients, 75(75%) experienced one relapse, 12(12%) two relapses, and 13(13%) three or more relapses. The etiologies of RAP were an alcohol (48%), gallstone (31%), idiopathic (14%), and others (7%). Univariate analysis showed that an age of <60 years, male gender, smoking, an alcohol-associated etiology, and a local complication at index admission were significant risk factors of RAP. Cox regression analysis showed that an age of <60 years (HR = 1.602, 95% CI: 1.029–2.493), male gender (HR = 1.927, 95% CI: 1.127–3.295), and the presence of a local complication (HR = 3.334, 95% CI: 2.211–5.026) were significant risk factors of RAP development.

Conclusion: A local complication at index admission was found to be the strongest risk factor of RAP, and a male gender and an age of <60 years were significantly associated with RAP. Special attention and close follow-up should be afforded to patients with a local complication at index admission or male patients <60 years old.

Keywords:

• Acute pancreatitis
• recurrent acute pancreatitis
• risk factors

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the 2018 Yeungnam University Research Grant.