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Abstract
This article discusses the transformation of the liberal international order, with reference to the ways in which global shifts affect the developmental paradigms among the emerging middle powers. Although it is rarely contested that the liberal order is being severely tested, the dynamics and potential consequences of this transformation are a matter of intense controversy. Also, the debate mainly focuses on great power politics, without paying adequate attention to the ways in which middle powers are influenced by and inform the transition to a post-liberal international order. By focusing on the case of Turkey, this article addresses whether non-Western great powers (Russia and China in particular) are leading the emergence of alternative order(s), and if so, through what mechanisms. Based on the reciprocal interactions between ideas, material capabilities and institutions, I argue that the preferences of the Turkish ruling elite seem to be gradually shifting from a Western-oriented liberal model towards a variety of ‘state capitalism’ as an alternative developmental paradigm in a post-liberal international order.
Acknowledgements
The Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) Institutional Block Grant (48240AY), City, University of London, supported this research. I would like to extend my thanks to the participants of the two workshops organised as part of the GCRF grant. Different versions of this paper were presented at the PSA Annual International Conference 2019 in Nottingham and the 4th UPTAKE Training School 2018 in Uppsala. I also thank the anonymous reviewers, Ziya Öniş, Elias Götz, Muzaffer Kutlay, Emrah Karaoguz and Umut Adisonmez for valuable comments on different versions of the manuscript.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
Notes
1 Ikenberry, “End of Liberal International Order”; Ikenberry, “Liberal International Order and Its Discontents.”
2 Deudney and Ikenberry, “Liberal World: The Resilient Order,” 18–9.
3 Ikenberry, “Liberal International Order and Its Discontents.”
4 Kahler, “Rising Powers and Global Governance,” 712.
5 Flockhart, “Coming Multi-Order World”; Acharya, End of American World Order.
6 Acharya, “After Liberal Hegemony,” 277.
7 Sil and Katzenstein, Beyond Paradigms, 11.
8 Cox, “Social Forces, States and World Orders,” 136.
9 Hall, “Role of Interests, Institutions, and Ideas.”
10 Hay, “Crisis and the Structural Transformation”; Capoccia and Kelemen, “Study of Critical Junctures.”
11 Blyth, Great Transformations, 9, 10.
12 Cox, “Social Forces, States and World Orders,” 136.
13 Legro, “Transformation of Policy Ideas.”
14 Öniş and Kutlay, “Global Shifts.”
15 Polanyi, Great Transformation.
16 Öniş and Şenses, “Rethinking the Emerging Post-Washington Consensus.”
17 Stiglitz, Globalization and Its Discontents.
18 Hodgson, “Great Crash of 2008.”
19 Wolf, The Shifts and the Shocks.
20 Bruff, “Rise of Authoritarian Neoliberalism,” 123–4.
21 Blyth, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea.
22 Öniş and Kutlay, “Global Shifts,” 229–32, 234.
23 Flockhart, “Coming Multi-Order World,” 23.
24 Bremmer, End of the Free Market.
25 Nölke et al. “Domestic Structures,” 543.
26 Bremmer, End of the Free Market; Kurlantzick, State Capitalism.
27 McNally, “Sino-Capitalism,” 744-5; Nölke et al. “Domestic Structures,” 543–5.
28 Bremmer, End of Free Market, 52.
29 Evans, Embedded Autonomy.
30 Chang, Kicking Away the Ladder.
31 Haggard, “Developmental State Is Dead”; Mazzucato, Entrepreneurial State.
32 Strange, Towards a New Political Economy.
33 Ban, “Brazil’s Liberal Neo-Developmentalism,” 300. Bresser-Pereira, “Reflecting on New Developmentalism.”
34 Nölke, “Dependent versus State-permeated Capitalism,” 273.
35 Ibid.
36 Strange, Towards a New Political Economy, chapter 3.
37 Saad-Filho and Morais, Brazil: Neoliberalism vs. Democracy, 93.
38 Epstein, “Developmental Central Banking.”
39 Gilpin, “U.S. Power,” 40–1.
40 Öniş and Kutlay, “Global Shifts,” 234; Diamond, “Facing up to the Democratic Recession.”
41 Foa, “Modernization and Authoritarianism,” 133.
42 Nathan, “China’s Challenge.”
43 Hay, “Crisis and the Structural Transformation,” 317.
44 Ibid., 323. Also see Hay, “Narrating Crisis.”
45 Tansey, Koehler, and Schmotz, “Ties to the Rest.”
46 New Development Bank, “Role of BRICS in the World Economy,” 18.
47 Ibid., 29.
48 For the full list see: http://fortune.com/global500/
49 Mounk and Foa, “End of the Democratic Century,” 30.
50 Yakouchyk, “Beyond Autocracy Promotion.”
51 Risse and Babayan, “Democracy Promotion,” 389.
52 Balding, “Why Democracies Are Turning.”
53 Strauss, “IMF Faces China Debt Dilemma.”
54 Chin and Thakur, “Will China Change the Rules,” 125.
55 Cox, “Social Forces, States and World Orders,” 136.
56 Hall, “The Role of Interests, Institutions, and Ideas,” 184.
57 Cox, “Social Forces, States and World Orders,” 137.
58 Ikenberry, After Victory.
59 Hurrell, “Beyond the BRICS.”
60 Wade, “Emerging World Order?”
61 Perlez, “US Opposing China’s Answer.”
62 Benabdallah, “Contesting the International Order,” 93.
63 Layne, “US–Chinese Power Shift,” 100.
64 Gerring, “Is There a (Viable),” 232.
65 Inalcik, Turkey and Europe in History.
66 Yalman, Transition to Neoliberalism.
67 Data retrieved from Turkish Statistical Institute.
68 Özel, “Emerging on an Illiberal Path,” 170; Kutlay, Political Economies of Turkey and Greece, 75.
69 Öniş and Kutlay, “Rising Powers.”
70 Kutlay, Political Economies of Turkey and Greece, 96.
71 Interview with senior policy consultant, expert and scholar (Istanbul, 2019).
72 Ertem, “NATO ve Faiz-enflasyon.”
73 Ertem, “Güncel-Somut Orneklerle.”
74 Ibid.
75 Interview with senior policy consultant, expert and scholar (Istanbul, 2019).
76 The ministry was renamed the ‘Ministry of Industry and Technology’ in July 2018.
77 Ministry of Science, Industry and Technology, Turkish Industrial Strategy Document. The document was updated in 2015 and 2019.
78 Gal, “A Canal through Turkey?”
79 Daily Sabah, “Five Turkish Companies,” November 2, 2017.
80 TCCB, “100 Günlük İcraat Programı.”
81 Data retrieved from the World Bank Database: https://ppi.worldbank.org/snapshots/rankings
82 Ibid.
83 Esen and Gumuscu, “Building a Competitive Authoritarian Regime.”
84 Öniş, “Turkey under the Challenge,” 202.
85 Öniş, “Turkey under the Challenge,” 210.
86 Anadolu Ajansi, “Erdoğan Cumhurbaşkanlığı.”
87 Yörük and Yüksel, “Class and Politics in Turkey’s Gezi Protests.”
88 Bilgic, “Reclaiming the National Will,” 273–4.
89 Köstem, “Political Economy of Turkish–Russian Relations.”
90 Taas, “Putin Comments on Russian–Turkish Relations.”
91 Bulut, “Doğu’daki Ekonomik.”
92 RDIF, “RDIF and Türkiye Wealth Fund.” Also see Bulut, “Doğu’daki Ekonomik.”
93 Hurriyet Daily News, “US ‘against’ Turkey.”
94 Aktürk, “Toward a Turkish–Russian Axis?”
95 Öniş, “Turkey under the Challenge,” 210.
96 Köstem, “Political Economy of Turkish–Russian Relations,” 23.
97 RT, “Turkey Favors Switching.”
98 Interview with senior consultant and expert (Istanbul, 2019).
99 Atlı, “Turkey Seeking Its Place.”
100 Hurriyet Daily News, “Chinese Bank to Lend.”
101 Hurriyet, “Cumhurbaşkanı Erdogan’dan Onemli Aciklamalar.” Also see Aydin-Duzgit and Keyman, “Turkey–EU Relations.”
102 Öniş and Kutlay, “Rising Powers in a Changing Global Order.”
103 Bulut, “Türkiye, Avrupa Birliği.”
104 Bulut, “2023 Büyük Türkiye.”
105 Daily Sabah, “Turkey May Become Member.”
106 Munyar, “Erdoğan Suggests adding ‘T’ to BRICS.”
107 Sputnik News, “Erdoğan.”
108 Haberturk, “Avrupa Birliği Bakanlığı.”
109 Özel, “Reverting Structural Reforms in Turkey.”
110 Özel, “Emerging on an Illiberal Path,” 170.
111 Interview with senior policy expert and scholar (Istanbul, 2019).
112 Interview with senior policy consultant, expert and scholar (Istanbul, 2019).
113 Yağcı, “Political Economy of Central Banking,” 532.
114 Hurriyet Daily News, “President Erdoğan.”
115 Ant, “Erdoğan Names Himself.”
116 Cumhurbaşkanlığı Kararnamesi, Resmi Gazete, no. 30083, August 7, 2019.
117 Babb and Chorev, “International Organizations.”
118 Ban and Blyth, “BRICs and the Washinton Consensus,” 241.
119 Snyder, “The Modernization Trap.”
120 Acemoğlu and Robinson, Why Nations Fail; Rodrik, Subramanian and Trebbi, Institutions Rule.
121 Doner and Schneider, “The Middle-Income Trap,” 610–1.
122 Foa, “Modernization and Authoritarianism,” 137.
123 Kutlay and Karaoğuz, “Neo-Developmentalist Turn.”
124 Güven, “Rethinking Development Space.”
125 Ibid., 1006.
126 Goldman and Harris, “US Imposes Sanctions.”
127 Acemoğlu and Üçer, “Ups and Downs of Turkish Growth,” 15–6.
128 Öniş, “Turkey under the Challenge.”
129 Tansel, “Reproducing Authoritarian Neoliberalism in Turkey,” 323.
130 Data retrieved from Turkish Central Bank database.
131 Bugra and Savaskan, New Capitalism in Turkey.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Mustafa Kutlay
Dr Mustafa Kutlay is a lecturer in the Department of International Politics at City, University of London. He works on comparative politics, political economy, emerging powers, and Southern Europe. His articles have appeared in, inter alia, Government and Opposition, Third World Quarterly and the Australian Journal of International Affairs. His most recent book is The Political Economies of Turkey and Greece: Crisis and Change (Palgrave Macmillan, 2019).