A systematic review of mathematical models of the Ebola virus disease

ABSTRACT

Several studies have surveyed the literature of mathematical modelling of the Ebola virus disease (EVD). However, most of these reviews did not report any work published after January 2016. Furthermore, those that have considered such work focused on particular types of models, presented only findings for some models, or included just a few articles published in 2016. Additionally, these reviews did not focus on examining models by systematically identifying advantages and limitations. In light of this, we conduct a systematic review of mathematical models of EVD. We focus on the PubMed publications between January 2016 and December 2018. The objectives of this review are to present an overview of the mathematical modelling literature on EVD, identify gaps, and improve prospective models by addressing current models’ constraints. The reported studies are categorised broadly in terms of the modelling approaches, model conclusions and constraints. Crucial modelling gaps are identified, and future research motivated.

KEYWORDS:

• Ebola epidemiology
• Ebola modelling systematic review
• Ebola modelling gaps
• Ebola virus disease models
• mathematical models of Ebola

Acknowledgments

This work is based on the research supported wholly by the National Research Foundation of South Africa (NRF) (Grant Number: 110931). We acknowledge that opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in the current research are of the authors alone, and that the NRF accepts no liability whatsoever in this regard. We also thank the anonymous reviewers for helpful suggestions and additional references that enhanced the quality of this submission.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the National Research Foundation - South Africa [110931].

Notes on contributors

Suliman Jamiel M. Abdalla

Mr Suliman Jamiel M. Abdalla is currently a PhD student at the University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN) in South Africa and supervised by Prof. Keshlan S. Govinder and Dr Faraimunashe Chirove. Mr Abdalla completed his BSc in Mathematics and Computer Science in Sudan. He then moved to South Africa for his postgraduate studies. Mr Abdalla completed his MSc at UKZN under the supervision of Prof. Jacek Banasiak, in which he worked on mathematical modelling of population theory. He later got interested in understanding the Ebola virus disease (EVD) dynamics, one of the deadliest diseases in Africa. He is currently working on few projects on the subject of EVD modelling.

Faraimunashe Chirove

Dr Faraimunashe Chirove is a strong education professional with a Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) focused in Mathematical Biology from the University of Botswana. He is currently working as a senior lecturer at the University of Johannesburg in South Africa. His research interests span from within-host modelling, population dynamics, data-based modelling, multi-scale modelling, immunoinformatics, Stochastic modelling, among others. He is an experienced faculty member with a demonstrated history of working in higher education. Dr Chirove is an awardee of distinguished teacher award. He supervised and graduated 21 postgraduate research students, inclusive of seven PhDs.

Keshlan S. Govinder

Prof Keshlan S. Govinder is an accomplished and visionary academic. He is currently a Professor of Applied Mathematics at the University of KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa. He has earned a distinguished record as an expert in applied mathematics and research. His background includes demonstrated excellence in teaching, including postgraduate examination, postdoctoral fellows and postgraduate students supervised, and numerous conference appearances and publications.