A destructive shifted Poisson cure model for interval censored data and an efficient estimation algorithm

Abstract

In this paper, we consider a competitive risk scenario in which the initial number of competing risks, assumed to follow a shifted Poisson distribution, is subject to a destructive element. In such settings, both the number of initial risks and risks remaining active after destruction represent missing data. Assuming the population of interest to have a cure component and the form of the data as interval-censored, we extend the destructive shifted Poisson cure model with Weibull lifetimes to accommodate interval-censored data and develop an efficient expectation maximization algorithm for this model. By using the conditional distributions of the missing data, the conditional expected complete log-likelihood function is decomposed into simpler functions which are then maximized independently. An extensive simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method through calculated bias, root mean square error, and coverage probability of the asymptotic confidence interval. Also considered is the efficacy of the proposed EM algorithm as compared to direct maximization of the observed log-likelihood function. Finally, data from a crime recidivism study is analyzed for illustrative purpose.

Keywords:

• Crime recidivism
• EM algorithm
• Interval censoring
• Weibull distribution