Trajectories of income offending: examining PTSD as a predictor of development

ABSTRACT

Income offending presents a major criminal justice issue associated with generating financial gain through illicit means. Such crimes may cause financial harm on an individual level and lead to additional strain on our criminal justice system when criminals who engage in such offending are caught and prosecuted. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) may present one mental health risk factor associated with differential development of income offending patterns across the life-course. This is because issues like low impulse control and potentially substance use habits that are often observed in PTSD may result in an increased risk for income offending among individuals with the disorder. This study sought to identify heterogeneity in income offending patterns and determine the relevance of PTSD as a risk factor. The Pathways to Desistance data were used in analyses. Group-based trajectory modeling was utilized to identify heterogeneity in developmental patterns of income offending. Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine the relevance of PTSD as predictor of development. Results indicated that a six-group trajectory model best fit the data. Meeting criteria for a lifetime diagnosis of PTSD predicted increased risk of assignment to the High Chronic income offending group. Implications are discussed.

KEYWORDS:

• Income offending
• PTSD
• group-Based trajectory modeling

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1. The cited study provides this cost in euros which had a 1:1 exchange rate at the time of this writing.

2. The following items were included in the count of income offenses at each wave: broke in to steal; shoplifted; bought, received, or sold something that you knew was stolen; use checks or credit cards illegally; stolen a car or motorcycle to keep or sell; sold marijuana; sold other illegal drugs; been paid by someone for having sexual relations with them; taken something from someone by force using a weapon; take something from someone by force without using a weapon.

3. The income offending variable demonstrated issues when Stata attempted to model it in its original form because of high outlier variables. Consistent with Wojciechowski (2020a) (see also: Matsuda et al. 2022), an iterative process of assigning top-codes to a ceiling category was done until the data had been cut down enough for Stata to model using the traj function. The ceiling category of 30 was identified as the highest frequency at which the software could model the data while also maintaining as much of the original variation as possible.

4. Several other variables were also considered as potential confounds of the main relationship: exposure to violence, negative affect, and impulse control. These variables were not included mainly because they are all defining characteristics of PTSD, thus, their inclusion may lead to an inability to understand the direct relationship between the disorder and the outcome. That said, sensitivity analyses which included baseline measurements of all three of these variables were conducted and the findings were analogous to those observed in the main analyses anyway.