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ABSTRACT
This contribution addresses the need for a simple model for managers to employ when planning strategies for the management of touristic beaches under sea level rise. A methodological framework was developed and tested in two Aegean archipelago islands (Lesvos and Rhodes, Greece). The scheme can represent the status of touristic island beaches, based on easily obtained variables/indicators and projections of beach erosion/retreat under different scenarios of mean sea level rise (MSLR) and extreme events. Information on beach geomorphological characteristics, environmental setting, water quality, management, and services (such as those used in the “Blue Flag” classification) was collated/collected and beach erosion/retreat due to CV & C was estimated through suitable ensembles of cross-shore (1-D) morphodynamic models. A Strength-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats (SWOT) framework was employed to assist in the selection of indicators and multicriteria analysis used to optimize indicator weights and rank beaches according to their sustainability under sea level rise. Implementation of the framework at the two islands has shown that: the majority of Lesvos and Rhodes beaches (82% of a total of 217 beaches and 58% of a total of 97 beaches, respectively) can be classified as beaches with no, or minimal, human interference, suggesting that under environmentally sound coastal management further touristic development might be afforded; there could be very significant effects of the sea level rise on the carrying and buffering capacities of the most developed (“Blue Flag”) beaches, with some expected even under conservative projections to be completely eroded by 2100, unless technical adaptation measures are taken; and using the proposed framework, touristic beaches can be rapidly ranked in terms of their resilience to sea level rise and their development potential, allowing prioritization of effective management responses.
Acknowledgments
The current work was supported by the action “Cross-Border Cooperation for the development of Marine Spatial Planning”—THAL-CHOR (ΘΑΛ-ΧΩΡ in Greek), cofunded by the European Regional Development Fund-ERDF (80%) and Greek and Cyprus national funds (20%), under the Cross-Border Cooperation Programme “Greece-Cyprus 2007–2013.” The senior authors (OT, INM and AFV), also acknowledge support during the research writing-up from the ERABEACH Project, cofunded by the EEA Grants, 2009–2014 (85%), and Greek Public Investment Programme (15%). The authors would like to thank the University of the Aegean, Marine Science Department, Prof. M. Karydis for its remarkable review and PhD student Antonis Chatzipavlis for his assistance with the ISLA database.