Impact of socio-economic conditions on the incidence of visceral leishmaniasis in Bihar, India

Abstract

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is one of the world's worst parasitic killers, second only to Malaria, claiming thousands of lives every year. More than three fifths of the world's VL cases occur in the Indian state of Bihar alone. While some research has been conducted with emphasis on the effects of climatic variables on the VL incidence rate, rigorous analysis of the effects of socio-economic variables is still lacking. In this paper a regression model is developed that describes the relationship between VL incidence rate and a variety of socio-economic factors. It uses data from 2005 and explains 92% of the observed variance. In addition, a stepwise regression model is also used to identify the most important factors that facilitate the prevalence of the VL disease. A discussion on how to most effectively distribute Bihar's limited resources on various control measures to decrease the incidence of VL is also presented.

Keywords:

• Kala-azar
• leishmaniasis
• socio-economic conditions
• vector-borne disease
• regression model

Acknowledgements

A.N. acknowledges partial support from the Mathematical and Theoretical Biology Institute and a grant from the Norman Hackerman Advanced Research Program.