Complexity, emergence and cellular urban models: lessons learned from applying SLEUTH to two Portuguese metropolitan areas

Abstract

We explore the simulation of urban growth using complex systems theory and cellular automata (CA). The SLEUTH urban CA model was applied to two different metropolitan areas in Portugal, with the purposes of allowing a comparative analysis, of using the past to understand the dynamics of the regions under study, and of learning how to adapt the model to local characteristics in the simulation of future scenarios. Analysis of the two case studies show the importance of SLEUTH's self-modification rules in creating emergent urban forms. This behavior can help build an understanding of urban social systems through this class of CA.

Acknowledgements

This research is the result of two grants: between 1998-1999 from the Luso-America Foundation (FLAD); and between 2000-2002 from the Portuguese National Science Foundation (FCT-PRAXIS XXI). Work was conducted while the primary author was a visiting scholar at the US National Science Foundation-funded National Center for Geographic Information and Analysis at the University of California, Santa Barbara. We thank the anonymous reviewers for suggestions and additions to the manuscript.