Iraqi Futures, Turkish Options

Abstract

This paper, completed as Ankara was considering extending its green light to cross-border military operations in northern Iraq, will explore a range of possible outcomes for Iraq, and Ankara's stakes in and policy preferences for Iraq and particularly northern Iraq. It will consider the aspirations of Iraq's Kurds, and the domestic, regional and international constraints on both Iraq's Kurds and Turkey. A range of alternative policy approaches available to Ankara will be discussed, and their implications assessed. The paper will argue that, whatever the outcome for Iraq overall, a high degree of Iraqi Kurdish independence will be an unavoidable feature of the region's political arrangements. Ankara's adjustment to this reality will be difficult.

Notes

1. The definitive history of the Kurds is by David McDowall, A Modern History of the Kurds (London and New York: I.B. Tauris 1997).

2. For general overviews of Turkey's Kurdish war, see McDowell, A Modern History, pp. 418–44; Henri J. Barkey and Graham E. Fuller, Turkey's Kurdish Question (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield 1998); Kemal Kirisci and Gareth M. Winrow, The Kurdish Question and Turkey: An Example of a Trans-state Ethnic Conflict (London and Portland, OR: Frank Cass 1997); Andrew Mango, Turkey and the War on Terror (London and New York: Routledge 2005); Robert Olson (ed.), The Kurdish Nationalist Movement in the 1990s: Its Impact on Turkey and the Middle East (Lexington: University Press of Kentucky 1996).

3. For the website of the KRG, see http://www.krg.org.

4. See, for example, ‘PKK and Iraqi Kurds are “One and the Same”, Turk Military Believes’, Turkish Daily News (TDN), 19 November 2006; ‘PM: Barzani is a Tribe Leader, Supports PKK’, TDN, 8 June 2007.

5. For an account of Turkish policy towards the KRG during this period, see Philip Robins, Suits and Uniforms; Turkish Foreign Policy since the Cold War (London: Hurst and Co. 2003), pp. 312–42.

6. For a wider analysis of this see my ‘US–Turkish Relations: Can the Future Resemble the Past?’, Defense and Security Analysis 23/1 (March 2007), pp. 41–54.

7. For a fuller consideration of the issues this raises and that are covered by this article, see my Turkey's Policy towards Northern Iraq: Problems and Perspectives, Adelphi Paper no. 374 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies/Routledge May 2005); and Asa Lundgren, The Unwelcome Neighbour: Turkey's Kurdish Policy (London: I.B. Tauris 2007).

8. There are numerous analyses of Iraq's current plight and possible future. For examples, see Patrick Clawson, ‘Iraq's Future: A Concept Paper’, Middle East Review of International Affairs 10/2 (June 2006), pp. 60–72; Patrick Cockburn, The Occupation: War and Resistance in Iraq (New York: Verso Press 2006); Toby Dodge, Iraq's Future; The Aftermath of Regime Change, Adelphi Paper no 372 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies/Routledge April 2005); James Fearon, ‘Iraq's Civil War’, Foreign Affairs 86/2 (March/April 2007), pp. 2–16; Eric Herring and Glen Rangwala, Iraq in Fragment: The Occupation and its Legacy (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press 2007); Walter Posch (ed.), Looking into Iraq, Chaillot Paper no. 79 (Paris: Institute for Security Studies July 2005). For a more optimistic assessment, see Michael Rubin, ‘The Future of Iraq: Democracy, Civil War, or Chaos?’, Middle East Review of International Affairs 9/3 (September 2005), pp. 125–38.

9. A transcript of Iraq's constitution can be found, among other places, at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/12/AR2005101201450.html accessed on 22 October 2007. For an account of the horse-trading involved in drawing up the constitution, see Ibrahim al-Marashi, ‘Iraq's Constitutional Debate’, Middle East Review of International Affairs 9/3 (September 2005), pp. 139–75.

10. ‘Parliament Approves Measure Allowing Autonomous Regions’, Washington Post, 12 October 2006.

11. For a text of the motion, see http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d110:SP2997 accessed on 22 October 2007.

12. A copy of the draft law can be found at http://www.priceofoil.org/wp-content/uploads/2007/03/Iraqoillaw021507 accessed on 22 October 2007.

13. The text of this can be found at the KRG website, http://www.krg.org.

14. A text of the unification agreement can be found at the KRG website, http://www.krg.org.

15. For an account of the emergence, nature, and prospects of Iraqi Kurdistan, see Brendan O'Leary et al., The Future of Kurdistan In Iraq (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press 2005).

16. Michael Knights, ‘Increased Factional Fighting Pulls Basra towards Chaos’, Jane's Intelligence Review, 1 December 2006.

17. For the text of the President's address announcing the surge, see http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/01/20070110-3.html accessed on 22 October 2007.

18. ‘Iraq bomb death toll reaches 344’, available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6951221.stm 17 August 2007.

19. Available at http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/Petraeus-Testimony20070910.pdf accessed on 22 October 2007.

20. Report to Congress on the situation in Iraq, General David H. Petraeus, 8–9 April 2008, available at http://www.armed-services.senate.gov/statemnt/2008/April/Petraeus04-08-08.pdf.

21. For a recent study of the creation of Iraq, see Christopher Catherwood, Winston's Folly: Imperialism and the Creation of Modern Iraq (London: Constable 2004).

22. By Gareth Jenkins, in Context and Circumstance: The Turkish Military and Politics, Adelphi Paper no 337 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies/Oxford University Press 2001), p. 16.

23. See McDowall, A Modern History, pp. 184–213, for an account of Turkey's wars against its Kurdish population during this period.

24. ‘PKK uses Northern Iraq as Arsenal, says Official Report’, Today's Zaman, 17 September 2007.

25. ‘Turkish Military Reports Problem on Anti-PKK Mechanism’, TDN, 17 November 2006.

26. The Iraq Study Group Report: The Way Forward—A New Approach, available at http://www.usip.org/isg/iraq_study_group_report/report/1206/index accessed on 22 October 2007.

27. ‘Buffer Zone in Northern Iraq’, TDN, 15 June 2007.

28. For the text see http://www.mfa.gov.tr.

29. ‘Turkey, Iraq Sign Terrorism Deal but No Hot Pursuit Clause’, TDN, 29 September 2007.

30. ‘Kurdish Groups Rule Out any Terror Deal Excluding Them’, TDN, 1 August 2007.

31. ‘Parliament Gives Go-ahead for Incursion’, Today's Zaman, 18 October 2007.

32. See, for example, deputy assistant secretary of state Matt Bryza's comments, ‘US Credibility in Turkey at Stake, Official Admits’, TDN, 3 February 2007. US ambassador to Turkey Ross Wilson has made similar comments.

33. ‘US Finally Admits Kurdish Influence on PKK’, TDN, 19 October 2007.

34. See, for example, the text of a television interview with Massoud Barzani, ‘Special Dispatch-Turkey/Iraq, no. 1547, 18 April 2007, available at http://www.thememriblog.org.

35. ‘Kurds “Will Fight Turkish Raids”’, available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/7052566.stm 19 October 2007.

36. For a comprehensive survey of the Kirkuk issue, see the International Crisis Group Middle East Report no. 64, Iraq and the Kurds: Resolving the Kirkuk Crisis, Brussels, 19 April 2007, available at http://www.crisisgroup.org.

37. ‘U.N. Hopes for "Grand Deal" to Resolve Iraq's Kirkuk’, International Herald Tribune, 20 August 2008. The failure to agree the future of Kirkuk has also held up the passage of an Iraqi electoral law. See ‘Iraq's Parliament must Pass Elections Law for this Year’, Kurdnet, available at http://www.ekurd.net/mismas/articles/misc2008/8/kirkukkurdistan444.htm 31 August 2008.

38. See Park, Turkey's Policy towards Northern Iraq, pp. 36–8. For a general consideration of Turkish policy towards the Turkmen, see H. Tarik Oguzlu, ‘The “Turcomans” as a Factor in Turkish Foreign Policy’, Turkish Studies 3/2 (Autumn 2002), pp. 139–48.

39. Amit R. Paley, ‘Iraqi Kurds Extend Role beyond Kurdistan's Borders’, 13 September 2008, available at http://www.ekurd.net/mismas/articles/misc2008/9/independentstate2385.htm.

40. For example, see comments by President Bush supporting the referendum, ‘US Rejects Turkish Calls on Kirkuk’, 18 January 2007; by Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns, ‘US says Kirkuk Decision up to Iraqis’, 20 January 2007; and by State Department spokesman Tom Casey, ‘US Rejects Turkish Calls on Kirkuk’, 18 January 2007, all TDN.

41. Lale Sariibrahimoglu, ‘US works with Turkey to counter PKK in Iraq’, Jane's Defence Weekly, 14 November 2007.

42. ‘US Helps Turkey Hit Rebel Kurds in Iraq’, Washington Post, 18 December 2007.

43. Gareth Jenkins, 2008. ‘A Military Analysis of Turkey's Incursion into Northern Iraq’, Terrorism Monitor 6/5, 7 March 2008, available at http://www.jamestown.org.

44. ‘Barzani Hopes Talabani's Visit Serves for Good Relations’, Today's Zaman, 11 March 2008.

45. Irfan Bozan, ‘Northern Iraq: From Deadlock to Dialogue’, Foreign Policy Bulletin, no. 6 (Istanbul: TESEV December 2007), pp. 5–7.

46. Head of Foreign Relations, KRG Minister Falah Mustafa Bakir's answer to a question on Turkish–Kurdish relations during a meeting held in International Institute for Strategic Studies on 9 June 2008.

47. Bozan, ‘Northern Iraq’.

48. ‘Syrian President Expresses Support for Incursion into Northern Iraq’, Today's Zaman, 18 October 2007.

49. ‘Turkey and Iran Coordinating Strikes on Kurds in Iraqi Kurdistan’, Kurdnet, available at http://www.ekurd.net/mismas/articles/misc2008/6/turkeykurdistan1870.htm 5 June 2008.

50. ‘Turkey: Ankara gives US assurances over intelligence’, Kurdnet, available at http://www.ekurd.net/mismas/articles/misc2008/6/turkeykurdistan1883.htm accessed on 21 June 2008.

51. ‘Meeting Hits Nail on the Head’, TDN, 5 November 2007.

52. For some comment on this, see Gareth Jenkins, ‘Turkey and Northern Iraq: An Overview’, Occasional Paper, The Jamestown Foundation, available at http://www.jamestown.org/docs/Jamestown-JenkinsTurkeyNIraq.pdf, February 2008, pp. 18–19.

53. See Park, Turkey's Policy towards Northern Iraq, pp. 58–61; also ‘Time for New “Modus Vivendi” between Iraqi Kurds and Turkey’, 28 December 2006; ‘Ankara and Northern Iraq Gear Up for Dialogue’, 26 February 2007; ‘US Says Facilitating Turk–Iraqi Kurd Talks as Gul Slams Barzani’, 1 March 2007; ‘Kurdish Leaders see Turkey as their Strategic Depth’, 21 March 2007, all TDN.

54. For a general analysis, see Geoffrey Gresh, ‘Turkish–Kurdish Reconciliation; Promise and Peril’, Turkish Policy Quarterly 5/3 (Fall 2006), available at http://www.turkishpolicy.com/default.asp?show=fall_2006_greshandchorev.

55. See the Turkish Daily News archived special online edition, ‘Turkey's Vote-2007’, available at http://www.turkishdailynews.com.

56. ‘PM's Cornucopia for the Southeast’, TDN, 28 May 2008.

57. ‘Gov't plans to Extend Cross-border Motion’, TDN, 16 September 2008.

58. For the DTP's website, see http://www.dtpgm.org.tr.

59. ‘Pro-Kurdish Party Calls for Spanish-style Constitution’, TDN, 17 October 2007.

60. ‘Turkey's Pro-Kurdish DTP Party Leader Calls on PKK to Lay Down Arms’, TDN, 23 August 2008.

61. ‘Iraq Gov't, Kurds to Tackle Strained Ties: Deputy PM Barham Salih’, Kurdnet, http://www.ekurd.net/mismas/articles/misc2008/9/kirkukkurdistan447.htm 11 September 2008.