The 2008 Russian–Georgian war via the lens of Offensive Realism

Abstract

The Russian intervention in Georgia's breakaway republic of South Ossetia in August 2008, Moscow's first-ever use of military force against a sovereign state in the post-cold war period, deserves a theoretical explanation. By following the tenets of Offensive Realism, this article will argue that the US–Russian competition in the South Caucasus is the main cause of the 2008 Russian–Georgian war. During the 1990s, the USA passed the buck to Turkey to contain Russian influence in the South Caucasus. In the early to mid-2000s, however, the Russian–Turkish relations were improved so rapidly that the USA opted, through NATO expansion, to step in as an offshore balancer. Following Bush administration's decision to support the Georgian candidacy for NATO membership and Georgia's ill-fated attempt to seize South Ossetia, Moscow went to war to re-establish hegemony in the South Caucasus. In this way, as the theory of Offensive Realism claims, the Kremlin believes that Russian state will enhance its chances of survival in the anarchical international system.

Keywords:

• South Caucasus
• Georgia
• Offensive Realism
• offshore balancer
• hegemony

Notes

1. Mearsheimer has argued that great power competition will re-emerge in Europe after the end of the cold war. More specifically, he has predicted that Germany or Russia could attempt to become the regional hegemon in a multipolar Europe. Yet, his predictions have failed to materialize (see Mearsheimer 2001, pp. 394–396).

2. On the US–Russia–China competition in the Caspian Sea (see Ebel and Menon 2000, Chufrin 2001, Nation and Trenin 2007).

3. On the Russian preparations for war see Felgenhauer 2008.