Scotland, NATO, and transatlantic security

Abstract

This article explores the political and strategic implications of Scottish Independence for existing transatlantic security arrangements. It examines the potential institutional, legal and political obstacles Scotland might face during the transition to independence and discusses the specific challenges in the area of security and defence, including the nuclear issue and the question of what form an independent Scottish Defence Force (SDF) would need to take to allow and facilitate integration in transatlantic security structures. It argues that a number of strategic and political issues could be mitigated in the course of negotiations between Edinburgh and London. Moreover, Scotland's geostrategic position and political orientation make it an important prospective partner in international security cooperation across the Eastern Atlantic, High North and North Sea, which suggests that an advanced partnership with NATO, and eventually full membership, seems like an option that is both politically viable and more likely than any scenario that predicts seeing an independent Scotland (IS) outside these structures. This challenges some of the main strategic and security political arguments against independence and thus seeks to spark a debate about the realistic options for Scotland should it become independent after 2016.

Keywords:

• Scotland
• security
• independence

Notes on contributors

Colin Fleming is a Research Fellow at the ESRC funded Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change at the University of Edinburgh, where he is a Project Leader on Defence and Security policy relating to Scottish Independence or enhanced devolution. Colin is also part of separate research team, also funded by the ESRC, which examines the Politics of Monitoring on three case studies: immigration, climate change and defence procurement. Colin completed his PhD in International Relations from Royal Holloway, University of London in 2010, and held a Max Weber Fellowship at the European University Institute in Florence 2009–2010. Colin was also previously a Leverhulme Early Career Fellow at the University of Edinburgh 2010–2012, and he holds an Honorary Fellowship in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Aberdeen.

Carmen Gebhard is a Lecturer in European Politics and Global Security at the School of Social and Political Science at the University of Edinburgh. She is a Research Associate of the Institute for Peace Support and Conflict Management (IFK) at the National Defence Academy in Vienna and the Centre of Conflict, Security and Terrorism (CST) at the University of Nottingham. After working as a Research Fellow at the Austrian Institute for European Security Policy (AIES) 2005–2006 and at the European Institute of Public Administration (EIPA) in Maastricht 2006–2007, Carmen completed her PhD in Comparative Politics at the University of Vienna in 2007. From 2007 to 2010, she held a Postdoctoral Fellowship at the Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) in Vienna before joining the School of Politics at the University of Nottingham (2010–2012).

Notes

1. The agreement was signed by the British Prime Minister, David Cameron, Scottish Secretary of State, Michael Moore, First Minister of Scotland, Alex Salmond (2012) and Deputy First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon on 15 October 2012, creating the legal basis for the way the referendum takes place and is received by the parties involved.

2. The majority of European states would expect the leaders of an IS to demonstrate their inclination and willingness for Scotland to join NATO, which could smooth Scotland's way into the wider European security framework.

3. Although Scotland's estimated defence budget would not reach the 2 per cent GDP that membership supposes, currently only three – USA, UK and France – match this target, which makes it unlikely to be a deal breaker (Scotland Institute 2013, p. 55).

4. See footnote 1.

5. While NATO is operating in the same mission space with a very similar mandate, the EU's maritime operation ‘Atalanta’ has even taken on precedence as the more resourced and sustainable mission (Gebhard and Smith forthcoming).