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Abstract
Many studies have argued that corruption undermines perceived democratic legitimacy, trust in state institutions, and government support. However, few prior studies have included transitional or hybrid regimes in their analyses, or simultaneously examined multiple aspects of this relationship. Using focus groups and a nationally representative survey conducted throughout a tumultuous transitional period in Kyrgyzstan, we find evidence for our hypotheses that citizens with greater corruption concerns will be more pro-democratic when evaluating democracy or its institutional components in the abstract; yet, they distrust existing government institutions. Even in a hybrid regime lacking democratic experience, citizens exhibit attributes of distrusting democrats.
The authors would like to acknowledge Paul Goren, Ben Bagozzi, James Hollyer, David Samuels, Cory Welt and, Teri Caraway for comments and suggestions on various drafts. The authors also thank several friends and colleagues in Kyrgyzstan for their suggestions. They prefer to remain anonymous. The authors thank participants at panels at ASN (Columbia) and Minnesota for their comments, and Adam Casey for research assistance. Kathleen Collins acknowledges the generous research support from the National Council for Eurasian and East European Research, United States Institute of Peace, the Carnegie Corporation of New York, and the McKnight Land Grant, which funded the survey and focus groups.
Notes
1 We use the terms ‘democratic’, ‘democratising’, and ‘transition to democracy’ in quotations when we are referring to governments, such as Kyrgyzstan’s, that claim to be transitioning to democracy and have made significant democratising steps, but the endpoint is uncertain. Democratic openings are often reversed.
2 ‘Kyrgyzstan Nation Opinion Poll, April 22–May 9, 2009’, International Republican Institute, available at: http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/2009%20July%2013%20Survey%20of%20Kyrgyzstani%20Public%20Opinion,%20April%2022-May%209,%202009%281%29.pdf, accessed 1 April 2016; ‘Kyrgyzstan National Opinion Poll, February 4–February 27, 2012’, International Republican Institute, available at: http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/2012%20April%2011%20Survey%20of%20Kyrgyzstan%20Public%20Opinion%2C%20February%204-27%2C%202012.pdf, accessed 15 January 2014; ‘Public Opinion Survey Residents of Kyrgyzstan February 10–March 5, 2015’, International Republican Institute, available at: http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/wysiwyg/2015-04-21_public_opinion_survey_residents_of_kyrgyzstan_february_10-march_5_2015.pdf, accessed 1 April 2016.
3 ‘Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index’, 2010, available at: https://www.transparency.org/cpi2010/results#table, accessed 30 May 2013; ‘Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index’, 2016, available at: www.transparency.org/news/feature/corruption_perceptions_index_2016#table, accessed 13 September 2017.
4 Personal communication with anonymous NGO activist, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, 15 May 2013.
5 ‘Grave Secrecy: How Does a Dead Man Set up a Company?’, Global Witness, 20 June 2012, available at: https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/corruption-and-money-laundering/anonymous-company-owners/grave-secrecy/, accessed 1 April 2015; ‘Former Kyrgyz President’s Son Lives in £3.5 M Surrey Mansion Despite Convictions for Attempted Murder of UK Citizen and Grand Corruption at Home’, Global Witness, 24 March 2015, available at: https://www.globalwitness.org/en/archive/former-kyrgyz-presidents-son-lives-35m-surrey-mansion-despite-convictions-attempted-murder/, accessed 1 April 2015.
6 ‘Former Kyrgyz President’s Son Lives in £3.5 M Surrey Mansion Despite Convictions for Attempted Murder of UK Citizen and Grand Corruption at Home’, Global Witness, 24 March 2015, available at: https://www.globalwitness.org/en/archive/former-kyrgyz-presidents-son-lives-35m-surrey-mansion-despite-convictions-attempted-murder/, accessed 1 April 2015.
7 ‘E.Gurevich osuzhden zaochno na 15 let tiur’my, a Sydykov-mladshii opravdan’, AKIpress, 16 March 2011, available at: www.svo-lka.aki.press.org/news.77641, accessed 8 March 2013.
8 ‘“Rossiya podstavila Bishkek po voprosu ob arende bazy Manas”,―K. Bakiyev dal press-konferentsiyu v Minske’, centralasia.ru, 23 April 2010, available at: http://www.centrasia.ru/newsA.php, accessed 8 March 2013.
9 ‘Grave Secrecy: How Does a Dead Man Set up a Company?’, Global Witness, 20 June 2012, available at: https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/corruption-and-money-laundering/anonymous-company-owners/grave-secrecy/, accessed 1 April 2015.
10 ‘Kyrgyz Government Wants Peace with Protesters’, Eurasianet.org, 30 April 2006, available at: http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav050106.shtml, accessed 8 April 2013.
11 Again, we use quotations because this process has not ended in liberal democracy; the transitional leaders’ intentions appear mixed and are not fully known.
12 ‘Kyrgyz Republic Parliamentary Elections 10 October 2010, OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission Report’, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, 20 December 2010, available at: http://www.osce.org/odihr/74649?download=true, accessed 15 January 2014.
13 ‘Authority Trends, 1991–2013: Kyrgyzstan’, Polity IV Project, 2014, available at http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/kyr2.htm, accessed 12 September 2017.
14 Personal communication with anonymous NGO activist, Bishkek, 1 June 2013.
15 ‘International Election Observation: Kyrgyz Republic-Presidential Election, 30 October, 2011’, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, available at: http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/84573?download=true, accessed 18 January 2014.
16 ‘Sacked Kyrgyz Prosecutor General to Run for President’, Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, 16 May 2011, available at: http://www.rferl.org/content/sacked_kyrgyz_prosecutor_general_to_tun_for_president/24176654.html, accessed 2 June 2012.
17 ‘Plan meropriyatii po protivodeistviyu korruptsii ministerstva na 2017 god’, Ministry of Finance of the Kyrgyz Republic, 26 January 2017, available at: http://www.minfin.kg/ru/novosti/borba-s-korruptsiey/vedomstvennye-plany-v-sfere-protivodeystviya-korru/plan-meropriyatiy-po-protivodeystviyu-korruptsii-m.html, accessed 1 June 2017.
18 Personal communication with anonymous NGO activist, Bishkek, 1 June 2013.
19 Further explanation of the design of the focus group study, as well as the composition of each focus group, is included in Appendices 1 and 3.
20 More than one response was allowed. ‘Kyrgyzstan Nation Opinion Poll, April 22–May 9, 2009’, International Republican Institute, available at: http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/2009%20July%2013%20Survey%20of%20Kyrgyzstani%20Public%20Opinion,%20April%2022-May%209,%202009%281%29.pdf, accessed 1 April 2016.
21 Our findings dovetail with Hale’s study of Russia (Citation2011, p. 1361).
22 The survey was part of a broader project but we use the battery of questions on democracy, corruption, and trust for this article.
23 See Appendix 4. ‘Distrust in State Institutions’ is a composite variable of trust in courts, police, local government, and the national parliament.
24 Details of the factor analysis are available in Appendix 4.
25 As noted above, these existing institutions included both Bakiyev-era rank and file and new hires and appointees. The question about trust in the national parliament is more abstract; responses reflect respondents’ views of Akayev- and Bakiyev-era parliaments, and possibly expectations about the one that would be elected in October 2010, since no parliament was in office during the transition period from April through December 2010.
26 Full analytic results, including tests of individual variable significance, are included in the additional materials online.
27 ‘Kyrgyz Republic Parliamentary Elections 10 October 2010, OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission Report’, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, 20 December 2010, available at: http://www.osce.org/odihr/74649?download=true, accessed 15 January 2014.
28 ‘Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index’, 2010, available at: https://www.transparency.org/cpi2010/results#table accessed 30 May 2013; ‘Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index’, 2012, available at: https://www.transparency.org/cpi2012/results, accessed 15 January 2014.
29 See the additional materials online for the models included.
30 ‘“Kyrgyzstan National Opinion Poll”. Gallup Organization. “Public Opinion Survey: Residents of Kyrgyzstan, March 7–20, 2016”’, International Republican Institute, p. 18, available at: http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/wysiwyg/public-iri_poll_presentation-kyrgyzstan_march_2016_eng.pdf, accessed 20 May 2016.
31 ‘Public Opinion Survey Residents of Kyrgyzstan February 10–March 5, 2015’, International Republican Institute, p. 5, available at: http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/wysiwyg/2015-04-21_public_opinion_survey_residents_of_kyrgyzstan_february_10-march_5_2015.pdf, accessed 1 April 2016.
32 ‘Public Opinion Survey Residents of Kyrgyzstan February 10–March 5, 2015’, International Republican Institute, p. 13, available at: http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/wysiwyg/2015-04-21_public_opinion_survey_residents_of_kyrgyzstan_february_10-march_5_2015.pdf, accessed 1 April 2016.
33 ‘Public Opinion Survey Residents of Kyrgyzstan February 10–March 5, 2015’, International Republican Institute, p. 4, available at: http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/wysiwyg/2015-04-21_public_opinion_survey_residents_of_kyrgyzstan_february_10-march_5_2015.pdf, accessed 1 April 2016.
34 The survey was part of a broader project directed by the first author. We use the battery of questions on democracy, corruption, and trust for this article.