Effects of climate change in winter ice cover and ice thickness in flooding: a case study of Grand River, Ohio, USA

ABSTRACT

The major objective of this research is to assess the effects of winter ice cover and simulate the flooding within bridge vicinity of the Grand River, Ohio, the USA for both in the historical period (1959–2014) and future period (2015–2098). The LiDAR data along with field-verified survey data were utilized for the calibration and validation of HEC-RAS. The stage increments up to 6.75 ft were detected at the upstream section of the Bridge due to historical ice jams. Moreover, the increment in the inundation area varied from 24% to 52% for various percentile winter flows. The percentage increase in the inundation area was highest for the 25-percentile flow than the higher percentile flow when the same thickness of ice cover was used in the simulation. The estimated ice thickness using Stefan’s equation for various emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for three climate models were found to be decreasing in the future period.

As per the standard practice in the United States, authors have used U.S. Customary Unit System (fps unit system) in this paper.

KEYWORDS:

• AFDD
• ice jam
• flooding
• inundation mapping

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed here.

Additional information

Funding

The authors would like to acknowledge the support from the Ohio Sea Grant System through Ohio State University to conduct this research (R/EM-032) [Grant No. 60055607].