The territorial genealogies of Russia's political parties and the transferability of political machines

Abstract

This article uses statistical analysis of aggregate electoral returns in order to establish continuities in the territorial patterns of support between four major political parties of contemporary Russia, on the one hand, and those parties that contested national legislative (Duma) elections from 1993 through 2007, on the other hand. It is hypothesized that such continuities, dubbed “territorial genealogies,” are largely rooted in the migration of region-based gubernatorial political machines from one national party to another, which constitutes a major flow of organizational continuity in the development of political parties. Statistical analysis confirms that the main hubs of machine politics in Russia's regions, originating from the intra-elite struggles of the 1990s, provide United Russia with the territorial core of its current support. Other political parties retain electoral salience in those regions where their electoral appeal is not mitigated by the presence of political machines, which underscores the importance of non-machine party organization for their electoral destinies.

Keywords::

• political parties
• territorial bases of support
• elections
• political machines
• regions of Russia
• territorial genealogies

Notes

^1. Those autonomous districts that ceased to exist in 2007–2011 are disregarded, and Chechnya is excluded for the obvious reason that some of the national elections were not held on its territory, either effectively or even formally.