Addressing racial bias in parole decisions: A pre-registered study of the Five-Level Risk and Needs System of risk communication

ABSTRACT

Indigenous peoples are disproportionately influenced by biases in risk assessment and risk communication. The Five-Level Risk and Needs System (5-levels) is a risk communication strategy that adds standardized definitions to risk categories and incorporates evidence-based recommendations for rehabilitation. The current pre-registered study examined the ability of the 5-levels to mitigate biases in a mock parole case using a 2 (risk communication format: status quo vs. 5-levels) × 2 (race: Indigenous vs. White) between-subjects design. Four hundred and twenty-three community members residing in Canada were asked to make decisions regarding parole and other risk, treatment amenability, and report utility outcomes. Risk communication format had no effect on parole. However, participants in the 5-levels condition did provide more accurate risk information than those in the status quo condition. The 5-levels system was also rated lower in terms of understandability and resulted in lower levels of confidence in decisions. Contrary to expectations, participants assigned to the case involving an Indigenous client were more likely to grant parole and provided more favourable ratings of the client compared to participants assigned the case of a White client. Findings from this study may inform risk communication strategies resulting in more consistent and reliable decision-making.

KEYWORDS:

• Risk communication
• racial bias
• five-level risk and needs system
• Indigenous peoples

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank those who consulted on this project including Patricia Whyte, an Indigenous Peer Support worker in the Mi’kma’ki area. More information about the project and the pre-registration can be accessed on the Open Science Framework (OSF): https://osf.io/t5bfz

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1 The general term “Indigenous peoples” refers to the original inhabitants of what is now known as Canada. Section 35 of the Constitution Act recognizes three groups of Indigenous peoples: First Nations, Métis, and Inuit. It is important to note that the experiences of each group are unique based on history, heritage, language, cultural practices, and beliefs.

2 At the time of the search, there were 140 members of the PBC (full – and part-time). This includes members of the national board combined with members of the three additional provincial boards in Ontario, Alberta, and Québec.

3 Qualtrics project managers handle all data collection including eliminating people who do not meet the study inclusion criteria, complete the survey too quickly (defined as ½ the median of the soft launch time of 9.5 min), or fail the manipulation check. A final dataset is then provided to the researchers. For this reason, it’s not possible to know how many people failed the manipulation check; it is only possible to say that everyone included in the current study provided an accurate response to the manipulation check question.

4 For missing values, n = 4 provided no response, n = 6 indicated they were unsure, and n = 1 was illegible.

5 Of the remaining 329 responses, n = 311 provided no response, n = 17 indicated no additional information was useful, and n = 1 was illegible.

6 Of the remaining 283 responses, n = 146 indicated no additional information was needed, n = 132 provided no response, n = 2 stated ‘yes’ but did not elaborate, and n = 3 were unclear.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada Insight Grant [grant number 435-2022-0154.