Transitions to sustainability in small islands: combining foresight scenarios with multi-criteria analysis to develop viable sustainability strategies in an EOR

ABSTRACT

Islands face similar challenges for sustainability as continental areas, but their geographic situation conditions their options for development. However, thanks to their clear geographic boundaries, they are an opportunity to think about sustainability in an integrated way. The objective of the study was to explore from a local (island) and regional (archipelago) perspective strategies for sustainability. ‘Participative foresight scenario mapping’ (PFSM) methodology was used to explore the sustainable future of a small island (Flores Island, Azores, Portugal). The need to acknowledge the limit to growth is a key finding of this article. But the research also allowed us to analyse in depth specific strategies that can be applied to different sectors of activity, the most important being to: improve the quality of local products, diversify the economy and increase self-sufficiency. PFSM succeeded in identifying key themes and facilitating debate around these subjects. These findings can inform sustainable development in other islands or territories sharing similar geographic characteristics.

KEYWORDS:

• Flores Island
• land use management
• participative scenario building
• small islands
• sustainability

Acknowledgements

The authors thank the anonymous referees, Brunel University London that funded this research project, the participants in the project and all those who have helped in the process, and in general all the Florentinos. We would like to thank Andy Stirling for use of the MCM software. We would also like to thank Sandra Hervías, Pablo, Andrés and Julián Pinazo, Artur Gil, Mario Burghausen, Karim Yafi, Lucio Urtubia, Pablo Coret and Julien Canavera who have been of great support to the first author.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.