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ABSTRACT
The argument that incumbent politicians are frequently reelected into office gained traction in the legislative literature – giving birth to the incumbency advantage theory. This paper investigates why incumbents lost elections they are supposed to win – subjecting the incumbency advantage theory to new scrutiny. Using interview data collected in 2017 examining Ghana's 2016 parliamentary and presidential elections, including relying on data from the Electoral Commission (EC) and parliamentary archives, the article evaluates the sources of incumbency disadvantage among Ghanaian sitting legislators. It traces the growing trend in incumbency disadvantage to: (a) the overbearing effects of a strong executive arm of government on the legislature, (b) management of primary elections, (c) effective opposition party dynamics, and (d) perceptions of incumbent parliamentarians’ governance effectiveness. The evidence emerging from Ghana shows incumbents are susceptible to electoral defeats as their challengers, contrary to the dominant view that incumbents’ defeats are challenging, especially in African politics.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 We want to thank the Editor-in-Chief, Professor for The Lord Norton of Louth, and the three anonymous reviewers for the comments, which ultimately have improved the quality of the manuscript. We also want to thank our contacts at the NCCE who helped with the interview data collection and transcription in the various constituencies.
2 Senior member of the NDC in the Madina Constituency, Greater Accra, Ghana.
3 NDC Constituency Director of Election.
4 Interview with NDC Constituency Secretary.
5 Interview with a defeated incumbent MP.
6 Interview with NPP Constituency Chairman.
7 Interview with NDC Constituency Secretary.
8 Interview with NPP constituency Secretary.
9 Interview with NDC Constituency Women’s organizer.
10 A defeated MP at the primary election. This was corroborated by experts informants from Civil society and think tanks
11 Almost all interviewees confirmed the systematic manipulation of the primary election processes in favor of incumbent MPs or candida
12 This perception was corroborated by defeated MPs at the primary elections, constituency level executives, and experts from civil society and policy think tanks.
13 NDC Constituency Secretary in Ahanta-West Constituency.
14 Interview with an expert from civil society and confirmed by some constituency executives both NDC and NPP.
15 This was corroborated by interviews with most NDC Constituency executives across the constituencies. The monetization of Ghana’s elections was confirmed by experts from civil society and policy tanks.
16 Interview with NDC Constituency Chairman.
17 Majority of interview partners intimated this concern.
18 NDC Constituency Secretary
19 NPP constituency Chairman. This view was confirmed by experts from civil society and policy think tanks.
20 Interview NDC Constituency Chairman.
21 NDC Constituency Secretary and confirmed by some constituency executives of the NPP.
22 This was widely confirmed by the NDC Constituency level executives majority of the constituencies.
23 Interviews with both the NDC and NPP constituency executives.
24 Interview with NDC constituency treasurer.
25 Interview with NDC secretary, Tempane constituency.
26 Majority of NDC constituency executives confirmed this perception across the constituencies.
27 NDC party executive in the Ashanti Region.
28 Respondent from the National Commission for Civic Education (NCCE).
29 Governance expert from NCCE.
30 See the previous note.
31 Please help change the publication year from 2008 to 2009. This change also reflects in the reference section.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Kingsley S. Agomor
Prof Kingsley S. Agomor was the immediate past Head of the Department of Public Management and International Relations at the GIMPA School of Public Service and Governance. He obtained his Ph.D. from the University of Ghana, Legon. His research interest is in governance and leadership, electoral politics, and public management.
Daniel Kofi Banini
Daniel K. Banini is an Instructor of Comparative Politics in the Department of Political Science at Eastern Illinois University. His research focuses on conflict processes, democratization, and governance, emphasizing Africa. He earned his Ph.D. from the School of Politics, Security & International Affairs, University of Central Florida.
Zechariah Langnel
Zechariah Langnel is a Lecturer at the Department of Political Science, University of Education, Winneba, Ghana.