When Can Conflicts be Resolved? A Critique of Ripeness

Abstract

The idea that conflicts cannot be resolved until they are ‘ripe’ has been influential in conflict resolution literature in recent years. This article critiques the theoretical underpinnings of ripeness using the Northern Ireland peace process as a case study. It highlights the problems that results from the subjectiveness of both the theory itself and the information needed to apply it. By critically examining William Zartman's six ‘propositions’ of ripeness, the inadequacy of the approach is highlighted and claims that the theory can help predict when conflicts are ripe for resolution are shown to be unsustainable. It advocates a more dynamic approach to conflict resolution than ripeness suggests that parties and mediators adopt.

Notes

 1. I. William Zartman, ‘Ripeness: The Hurting Stalemate and Beyond’ in Paul C. Stern and Daniel Druckman (eds.) International Conflict Resolution After the Cold War (Washington DC: National Research Council Press 2000) p.225.

 2. Ibid.

 3. See, for example, John McGarry (ed.), Northern Ireland and the Divided World (Oxford: Oxford University Press 2001) and John Darby, ‘Borrowing and Lending in Peace Processes’ in John Darby and Roger Mac Ginty (eds.) Contemporary Peacemaking (Basingstoke: Palgrave 2003). The Northern Ireland peace process was even recently cited as a potential model by Iraqi foreign minister, Hoshyar Zebari, Irish Times 14 November 2005.

 4. Zartman (note 1) pp.232–3.

 5. Ibid. p.225.

 6. Ibid. p.228.

 7. Ed Moloney, A Secret History of the IRA (London: Penguin 2002) p.249.

 8. Zartman (note 1) p.227.

 9. John Paul Lederach, ‘Cultivating Peace’ in Darby and Mac Ginty (note 3).

10. Zartman (note 1) pp.228–9.

11. Ibid. p.228.

12. Thomas Hennessey, The Northern Ireland Peace Process: Ending the Troubles? (Dublin: Gill and Macmillan 2000) p.285.

13. Paul Dixon, Northern Ireland: The Politics of War and Peace (Basingstoke: Palgrave 2001) p.169.

14. Moloney (note 7).

15. Quoted in Henry Patterson, Ireland Since 1939 (Oxford: Oxford University Press 2002) p.320.

16. Moloney (note 7) p.356.

17. Endgame in Ireland (BBC Television, 2001).

18. Zartman (note 1) p.228.

19. Daniel Lieberfeld, ‘Conflict “Ripeness” Revisited: The South African and Israeli/Palestinian Cases’, Negotiation Journal XV/I (1999) p.64.

20. Christopher R. Mitchell, ‘Cutting Losses: reflections on Appropriate Timings’, ICAR Working Paper 9 (1996) available at http://ciaonet.org/wps/mic01/.

21. Ibid. – emphasis in the original.

22. Ibid.

23. I. William Zartman, ‘The Timing of Peace Initiatives’ in Darby and Mac Ginty (note 3) p.20.

24. Zartman, ‘Ripeness: The Hurting Stalemate and Beyond’ (note 1) p.231.

25. Paul Dixon, ‘Political Skills or Lying and Manipulation? The Choreography of the Northern Ireland Peace Process’, Political Studies 50/4 (2002), pp. 725–41.

26. Zartman, ‘Ripeness: The Hurting Stalemate and Beyond’ (note 1) p.229.

27. Ibid. pp.230–1.

28. Daily Telegraph 6 March 1998. The Sunningdale Agreement, negotiated in 1973, was an attempt to restore devolved government to Northern Ireland and create Council of Ireland to promote North–South co-operation. It was brought down by the Ulster Workers' Council strike of 1974.

29. Zartman, ‘Ripeness: The Hurting Stalemate and Beyond’ (note 1) pp.231–2.

30. Paul Bew and Gordon Gillespie, Northern Ireland: A Chronology of the Troubles, 1968–1999 (Dublin: Gill and Macmillan 1999).

31. Henry Patterson, The Politics of Illusion (London: Serif 1997) p.231; Eamonn Mallie and David McKittrick The Fight for Peace (London: Macmillan 1996).

32. Zartman, ‘Ripeness: The Hurting Stalemate and Beyond’ (note 1) p.232.

33. Ibid. p.235.

34. House of Commons, Debates (11 November 1992), vol.213 cols. 891.

35. Jim Prior, A Balance of Power (London: Hamish Hamilton 1996) p.181.

36. Dick Spring, ‘British–Irish Relations: A new vision’, Etudes Irlandaises 21/1 (1996) p. 137.

37. Hugh Miall, Oliver Ramsbotham and Tom Woodhouse, Contemporary Conflict Resolution (Cambridge: Polity Press) p.18.

38. Zartman, ‘Ripeness: The Hurting Stalemate and Beyond’ (note 1) pp.243–5. For an examination of possible roles of mediators see Christopher Mitchell, ‘Mediation and the Ending of Conflicts’, in Darby and Mac Ginty (note 3) pp. 77–86.

39. Zartman, ‘Ripeness: The Hurting Stalemate and Beyond’ (note 1) p.232.

40. Sean Duignan, One Spin on the Merry-Go-Round (Dublin: Blackwater Press 1996) pp.139–40.

41. Endgame in Ireland (note 17).

42. Duignan (note 40) p.102.

43. Zartman, ‘Ripeness: The Hurting Stalemate and Beyond’ (note 1) p.243.

44. Lederach (note 9) p.32.

45. The Independent 26 July 1994.

46. Duignan (note 40) p.145.

47. Lederach (note 9) pp.31–2.

48. Interview with the author (2001).

49. Lederach (note 9) p.32.

50. Miall et al. (note 37) p.163.