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Original Articles

The Link between Protracted Refugee Situations and Civil War in Africa: Encouraging a New Direction for Research

Pages 214-225 | Published online: 15 Aug 2009
 

Abstract

Most of the refugees in the world today are mired in protracted refugee situations (PRS). While PRS around the world last for years with no apparent solution on the horizon, the problem is especially prominent in Africa where traditional refugee protection approaches and solutions are not working. This study applies an innovative framework recently developed to study civil war to the analysis of PRS. The enduring rivalry framework was developed for studying the long-term dynamics of serious conflicts between pairs of states. By applying this framework to rivals in civil wars, this study presents a new way of thinking of PRS by tracing the problem back to the enduring internal rivalries that cause and sustain them.

Notes

 1. UNHCR, ‘Protracted Refugee Situations,’ Executive Committee of the High Commissioner's Programme, Standing Committee, 30th meeting (2004).

 2. US Committee for Refugees and Immigrants, World Refugee Survey 2005, Table 1.

 3. UNHCR (note 2).

 4. See, for example, Jeff Crisp, ‘No Solutions in Sight: the Problem of Protracted Refugee Situations in Africa’, The Center for Comparative Immigration Studies Working Paper 68 (San Diego:Univ. of California 2002).

 5. Mikael Ericsson and Peter Wallensteen, ‘Armed Conflict, 1989–2003’, Journal of Peace Research 41/5(2004) pp.625–36 and Michael Doyle and Nicholas Sambanis, ‘International Peacebuilding: A Theoretical and Quantitative Analysis’, American Political Science Review 94/4 (2000) pp.779–801.

 6. T. David Mason and Jason Quinn, ‘Sustaining the Peace: Determinants of Civil War Recurrence’, paper presented at Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, 2004.

 7. Barbara Walter, ‘Does Conflict Beget Conflict? Explaining Recurring Civil War’, Journal Peace Research 41/3 (2004) pp.371–88.

 8. Doyle and Sambanis (note 5).

 9. Ibid.

10. Michael Barutciski and Karl DeRouen, ‘The Endogenous Relationship between Civil Wars and Refugees’, paper presented at International Studies Association annual meeting held in Honolulu, March 2005.

11. James Milner, ‘Protracted Refugee Situations: Human Rights, Political Implications and the Search for Practical Solutions’, paper presented at the fall consultations of the Canadian Council for Refugees, 31 Oct. 2005, p.18.

12. Crisp (note 4) pp.20–2.

13. Ibid. p.20.

14. Merrill Smith, ‘Warehousing Refugees: A Denial of Rights, a Waste of Humanity’, World Refugee Survey (2004) pp.38–56.

15. Crisp (note 4) p.20.

16. Milner (note 11) p.29.

17. Karl DeRouen, and Jacob Bercovitch, ‘EIRs: A New Framework for the Study of Civil War’, Journal of Peace Research (forthcoming).

18. Gary Goertz and Paul F. Diehl, ‘The Empirical Importance of Enduring Rivalries’, International Interactions 18/2 (1992) pp.151–63.

19. Paul Diehl and Gary Goertz, War and Peace in International Rivalry (Ann Arbor: Univ. of Michigan Press 2000) p.16.

20. Gary Goertz and Paul F. Diehl, ‘Enduring Rivalries Theoretical Constructs and Empirical Patterns’, International Studies Quarterly 37 (1993) pp.147–71.

21. Gary Goertz, Bradford Jones and Paul F. Diehl, ‘Maintenance Processes in International Rivalries’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (2005) pp.742–69.

22. See generally Doyle and Sambanis (note 5) and Gil Loescher and James Milner, ‘The Long Road Home: Protracted Refugee Situations in Africa’, Survival 47/2 (Summer 2005) pp.153–74.

23. DeRouen and Bercovitch (note 17); see also Karl DeRouen, ‘Secessionist Wars as Enduring Internal Rivalries,’ in John Henderson and Greg Watson (eds.), Securing a Peaceful Pacific (Christchurch, NZ: Canterbury UP 2005).

24. DeRouen and Bercovitch (note 17).

25. Ericsson and Wallensteen (note 5).

26. Peter Wallensteen, ‘Conflict Termination Data’, Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Uppsala Univ. 2005. Downloaded at < www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/States_in_Armed_Conflict_Annual_Data_Eriksson1.htm>.

27. DeRouen and Bercovitch (note 17).

28. Diehl and Goertz (note 19).

29. For a review of the literature, see Nicholas Sambanis, ‘What is Civil War? Conceptual and Empirical Complexities’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 48/6 (2004) pp.814–58.

30. Ericsson and Wallensteen (note 5).

31. David Cunningham, Kristian Gleditsch, and Idean Salehyan, ‘Dyadic Interactions and Civil War Duration’, paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Honolulu, Hawaii, 2005.

32. Halvard Buhaug, Scott Gates, and Paiva Lujala, ‘Geography, Strategic Ambition and the Duration of Civil Conflict’, paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, 2005.

33. DeRouen and Bercovitch (note 17).

34. Cunningham et al. (note 32).

35. Karl DeRouen, Jun Wei, and Jacob Bercovitch, ‘Duration of the Peace after Repeated Civil Wars in Southeast Asia’, paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, 2006.

36. James Fearon, ‘Why Do some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer than Others?’, Journal of Peace Research 41/3(2004) pp.275–301.

37. James Fearon, ‘Civil War Since 1945: Some Facts and a Theory’, paper presented at Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington DC, 2005.

38. John Vasquez, The War Puzzle (Cambridge: CUP 1993), but see William R. Thompson, ‘Principal Rivalries’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 39/2 (1995) pp.195–223.

39. Fearon (note 38).

40. Ibid.

41. Fearon notes that some wars begin as small guerrilla affairs and then expand. The African examples he provides are Uganda in the 1980s and Ethiopia. Ibid.

42. This also ties in to the sons of the soil argument described below. The government will often not go all out-out in a region if they have the upper hand and ‘control’ the rebels even while not eradicating them. Ibid.

43. Fearon (note 37).

44. Goertz and Diehl (note 19).

45. Fearon (note 37).

46. Ibid.

47. Ibid.

48. Ibid.

49. James Fearon and David Laitin (2005) Sons of the Soil, Immigrants, and Civil War. Unpublished book manuscript. Stanford University.

50. Fearon (note 37).

51. The Colombian civil war is tied to contraband (coca) and originally was a revolutionary type, but now has lost much of its original political motivations.

52. Philippe Le Billon, ‘The Political Ecology of War: Natural Resources and Armed Conflicts’, Political Geography 20 (2001) pp.561–84.

53. Karen Ballentine and Jake Sherman, The Political Economy of Armed Conflict (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner 2003); Mats Berdal and David Malone (eds.), Greed and Grievance: Economic Agendas in Civil Wars (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner 2000)

54. DeRouen and Bercovitch (note 17).

55. Cunningham et al. (note 32).

56. See Fearon (note 37).

57. DeRouen and Bercovitch (note 17).

58. Loescher and Milner (note 22) p.69.

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