Ethno-Federalism and Subnational Conflicts in Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

Ethiopia is unique in its extreme version of ethno-federalism as it constitutionally grants unconditional rights of self-determination and secession to all ethnic communities. The defacto practices of power in governing multiple contesting groups, however, creates regime priorities. The post-2018 politics generated violent opportunities to make viable claims on control, representation, and authority. Further, conflicts at the local, regional and national level increased because of the new regime’s need to co-opt and placate subnational elites. This suggests that ethno-federal systems incentivize distinct, co-occurring forms of political violence. Such a system provides the context for violence, but regime politics provides the spark.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1. See Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation Facebook page 15th July 2022 (in Amharic).

2. See the Ethiopian Peace Observatory for collected data and statistics at epo.acleddata.com. The EPO is a project of ACLED, a global non-profit crisis-mapping organisation based in the United States. EPO data are collected through ACLED and sourced in English, Amharic, Oromiffa, and Tigrinya.

3. In fact, the Sidama Nationality Zone Council had gone as far as approving a demand for a separate regional state, a demand which also received support from the government of the SNNP. However, the EPRDF stopped the implementation of this decision (Aalen 2008). This did not settle well among ethnic communities with relatively large population since ethnic communities such as the Hareri, which have much smaller population, had their own states.

4. Author interviews with local officials throughout Oromia and Amhara during 2021.

5. Author interviews with local officials throughout Oromia and Amhara during 2021.

6. See epo.acleddata.com/analysis.

Additional information

Funding

Funding for Fuller and Raleigh provided by Horizon 2020 under ERC grant no. [726504].

Notes on contributors

Zemelek Ayele

Zemelak Ayele is an associate professor at the Centre for Federalism and Governance Studies (CFGS) and an extraordinary associate professor at Dullah Omar Institute of the University of the Western Cape (UWC).

Braden Fuller

Braden Fuller is a PhD Candidate and a research associate at the Versus Project on Violence and Political Elites at the University of Sussex

Clionadh Raleigh

Clionadh Raleigh is a professor of political violence and geography and the president and founder of the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED).