What Configuration Can Trigger Pro-Environmental Policy Agenda Setting in an Uncertain Social Context: A Qualitative Comparative Analysis Based on the Multiple Streams Framework

Abstract

This study examines the configuration of conditions that trigger pro-environmental policy agenda setting (PAS) in an uncertain social context. It discusses the suitability and explanatory power of Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Framework (MSF) in this context. It employs the MSF and implements a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis on 25 pro-environmental cases in China. The results indicate that the seven solutions that could be recombined into three successful driven patterns may trigger the establishment of China’s pro-environmental policy agenda. China’s pro-environmental PAS does not require the complete collection of conditions for all three streams.

Keywords:

• uncertain social context
• pro-environmental policy
• policy agenda setting
• Multiple Streams Framework
• qualitative comparative analysis

1. Introduction

Environmental issues have natural externalities and cause an increasing risk of uncertainty. To counteract the uncertainty and complexity, people participate in public policy activities and attempt to ensure that pro-environmental conflicts and challenges are submitted to policymakers and included in the policy agenda. Therefore, the government may allocate public resources to alleviate conflict and reduce confusion in an uncertain social context. Scholars have always paid extensive attention to the legitimacy of pro-environmental policy and the implementation process. However, they have failed to systematically discuss how environmental issues are related to and enter the policy agenda (Rosenberg 2017; Hedlund et al. 2021).

Chinese people have their own logic regarding public action in this uncertain social context. This study employs Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Framework (MSF) to explain the action process for the unsafe and vulnerable societal background. It can also fully capture the complexities of policy agenda setting (PAS) following prior academic documents (Béland 2016; DeLeo 2017; Fowler 2020). In environmental events, MSF can explain the prioritization of public issues by the government and how they enter the pro-environmental policy agenda. The MSF illustrates PAS with three streams in each social setting: problem, policy and political. The policy window will briefly open due to urgent issues or political events. Policy entrepreneurs (PEP) have an opportunity to promote the convergence of the three sources and submit alternatives (ATN) to the decision-making agenda (Kingdon 2014). It thus converts social problems into policy issues and suggests the available solutions. This type of coupled logic adapts to the uncertain social context and has strong explanatory power that is optimized over alternate agenda-setting theories.

Scholars have paid extensive attention to the factors that influence agenda setting in different fields (Olavarria-Gambi 2016; Dai et al. 2021). However, there is a paucity of research on the interaction between these determinants and how they jointly promote PAS. In traditional studies, quantitative and qualitative research are usually adopted as the main methods (Ragin 2000). Quantitative analysis explains a linear relationship without addressing the complexity of cause and effect. Qualitative analysis requires additional evidence to demonstrate its universality. Fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) (Ragin 2014) transcends the boundary of these analyses and integrates their advantages by treating cases as the result of multiple conditions. It serves to replace independent variables with conditional configurations, net benefit thoughts with configuration ones, and correlation relations with set ones. Based on MSF and the comparison of multiple cases of citizen pro-environmental actions in China, this study aims to answer the following: What conditions or combinations thereof would successfully initiate environmental PAS? To what extent is MSF applicable in the pro-environmental PAS in China? How can MSF be more relevant to China’s uncertain social context?

Using 25 pro-environmental cases from China, this study shows that PEP and public emotions (PEN) are prerequisite conditions and that seven paths can successfully initiate a pro-environmental PAS. The successful configurations may be recombined into three valid patterns, driven by: focusing events, public opinion, and government attentiveness. The conditional combinations’ diversity is a response to social uncertainty. Each combination is the optimal path to solving environmental problems in a specific context. Conversely, China’s pro-environmental PAS does not require all the conditions of MSF’s three streams. The interpretability of Kingdon’s MSF needs to be redefined when studying pro-environmental policy issues in uncertain social contexts. Therefore, MSF has some explanatory power. However, MSF’s unsuitability in different contexts may have a metaphorical meaning. We determine multiple streams theory’s limitation in explaining the pro-environmental PAS in uncertain social contexts. The theory should be intertwined with dialogue on local culture and power structures to enhance its inclusiveness and explanatory power.

This manuscript is arranged as follows: Section 2 presents the theoretical approach for the causal determinants under MSF for PAS. Section 3 introduces the materials and illustrates the fsQCA’s conceptualization and calibration. Section 4 reports and discusses the results and Section 5 concludes this study and provides recommendations.

2. Literature Review and Conceptual Framework

MSF suggests that there are three streams in the policy process: problem, policy, and political. Only when the three streams converge at a specified time can the policy window be opened and thus the policy agendas be set (Kingdon 2014). Compared with the rational model (RM) (Easton 1979), the political model (PM) (Zahariadis 2003), the multiple causal funnel model (MCFM) (Hofferbert 1974), and the punctuated equilibrium theory (PET) (Baumgartner and Jones 1993), MSF can explain why agendas are noticed or disregarded by policymakers (Weible and Sabatier 2017). In this case, the most critical factor for triggering agenda setting is not a stimulus-based response or political consideration, but the combination of three streams. This is not entirely predictable.

2.1. Uncertainty and the MSF

Currently, uncertainty pervades every field of society, including the environmental field (Torfing et al. 2012). Lerner and Wanat (1983) argued that the decision-making process is often ambiguous and unpredictable due to information asymmetry, bounded rationality, and limited resources. The objects that the government intervenes in are complex social factors in ambiguous conflicts. The agenda-setting process is not only constrained by the complexity of external conditions, but also by the policy systems that make the decisions (Klijn and Koppenjan 2016). The government that attempts to solve the problems inevitably creates problems, especially when human intervention is involved (Young 2017). This increases the uncertainty of decision-making.

Since uncertainty has become an unavoidable phenomenon in the field of environmental governance, researchers request predictability and robustness to optimize responses in the environmental field (Capano and Woo 2017). The RM is a trade-off comparison between values and ATN based on the costs and benefits. This may fail in complex contexts due to a lack of reliable information and the complexity of ranking values. The PM emphasizes the value of political factors but cannot explain the lack of consistency. The MCFM demonstrates the complex relationship between multiple variables but is criticized for being unable to clearly articulate the specific mechanism involving these variables. The PET challenges the RM and proposes that political attention is the key to understanding decision-making choices (Jones and Baumgartner 2005; Flavin and Franko 2017). However, it fails to depict how this attention promoted setting of the policy agenda (Koski and Workman 2018). The MSF explores public policy agenda setting (Zahariadis 2016). It states that this pre-decision stage is fraught with ambiguity, randomness, and irrationality (Koebele 2021). It uses the coupling of streams to predict the opening of the policy window. It thus makes the complex process of agenda setting more predictable. This study employs the MSF to analyze the environmental agenda-setting challenge under uncertain conditions and the underlying logic of agenda setting.

2.2. The MSF and Its Determinants

Drawing from the Garbage Can Model’s advantages set out by Olson and Cohen et al. (1972), the MSF focuses on three independent streams, as mentioned: problem, policy, and political (Kingdon 2014). The policy agenda is highly influenced by the problem and political streams, while the policy stream mainly affects the ATN. When there is a change in the political stream or a new problem noted by the administrator, the PEP compete to propose solutions. This will more likely promote convergence of the three streams and realize the PAS.

2.2.1. Problem Stream

Various social issues await government solutions. The reasons why policymakers prioritize certain issues over others needs to be explored (Béland 2016). Kingdon (1993) emphasizes that the key is not how challenges are identified or how decisions are implemented, but how problems become those to be solved. In the political field, indicators (IND) help policymakers perceive changes and assess the severity of the challenge. These include the number of road deaths, immunization rates, and car-ride rates (Kingdon 2014). It is not a direct recognition of the facts, but a factor with powerful implications (DeLeo 2017). Focusing events (FET) are types of public crises, natural disasters, or powerful symbols. The government’s agenda has been reflective of and will always reflect these crises. The transmission scope and popularity of the topic affect the attention garnered by the event (Cobb and Elder 1972). Feedback (FDB) is the data collection method for policy system information (Kingdon 2014). It not only creates awareness of the problems, but also forms a powerful self-reinforcing cycle.

2.2.2. Policy Stream

At this stage, PEP compete to initiate various plans and solutions for policy issues. However, not all concepts or proposals may be carefully considered. Most are not given adequate attention and eventually dissipate (Zohlnhöfer et al. 2016). The proposals that are considered and successfully influence policymakers have three key characteristics: technical feasibility, value acceptability, and compliance with future expectations (Kingdon 2014). An ATN’s technical feasibility is usually related to whether it may be implemented and the desired goal be achieved. If an ATN is not technically feasible, it will not be sustainable and valued (Herweg et al. 2017). In addition, ATN need to be consistent with the values embodied by state actors, which reflect current political feasibility or value acceptance (Zhu 2008). Future expectations, such as budgetary constraints and public acceptance, must be considered (Kingdon 2014).

2.2.3. Political Stream

Unlike the problem and policy streams, the political stream refers to elements. These include PEN, the interaction between organized political forces (OPF), government change, and jurisdictional distinctions. PEN, or “national climate” (Kingdon 2014), are complex to recognize. Policymakers can identify them via emails from the public, receptions from representatives, hearing from interest groups, or via internet channels (Zhou and Moy 2007). OPF are often associated with political mobilization, interest group pressure, or the behavior of political elites. Bureaucratic actors may have the power to set the agenda (Zahariadis 2016). However, non-bureaucratic actors, such as local political activists, experts, academics, and government advisors, may also participate in the process. Government change and jurisdictional distinctions in the political stream are transformed into one variable: the ruling party’s ideology (Zahariadis 2015). The political stream may only mature when this party supports an ATN. Therefore, the ruling party’s ideology or preferences are crucial for how the streams combine (Herweg et al. 2017).

2.3. Conceptual Framework

Based on the above literature analysis, we construct a conceptual framework containing eight conditional variables and one outcome variable (Figure 1). Since MSF is a theoretical product of Western practice, directly applying it may not explain the inherent logic of agenda setting in China (Teets 2018). Thus, the MSF is adjusted for increased relevance of the study’s selection of the determinants to China’s system and social context.

Figure 1. Conceptual framework

Source: Adapted from Kingdon’s MSF

In recent years, MSF has been widely used in research on China’s legislation regarding early childhood education (Li and Lu 2018), cross-border energy cooperation (Liu and Xu 2021), and environmental policymaking (Du and Baark 2021). These depict some of the Chinese system’s inherent characteristics. The Chinese system’s most significant feature is that China is ruled by the Communist Party of China (CPC), which leads public policy formulation and implementation. Consequently, the CPC performs the most important role in the PAS (Chen and Lin 2021). Policy preferences expressed by the policymaking elite are not automatically adopted in China (van den Dool 2022). The shaping of public policy by public opinion in China has clearly defined phases. When and how local governments respond to public opinion will determine whether policy issues can be effectively resolved. China is currently in a critical period of social transformation, and the superposition of multiple contradictions has complicated the political ecology. PEP may include both policymakers and target groups and the multiple identity roles may create ambivalence between the three sources (Lin and Wang 2021). This may result in varying degrees of coupling effects and impetus forces on establishment of a policy agenda.

In the problem stream, we focus on the functions and changes of IND, FET, and FDB in actions of pro-environmental citizens. In the policy stream, we consider the key roles of ATN and PEP in policy advocacy. Regarding the political stream, PEN, OPF, and government preferences (GPF) that are always affected by the CPC (Jones et al. 2019) are included in this study. Moreover, we choose PAS as the outcome variable.

3. Methodology

3.1. FsQCA

FsQCA was first proposed by Charles Ragin. It was initially used to explore the causal mechanism of complex events and the interaction of various factors based on small and medium-sized samples. FsQCA is based on Boolean algebra and set theory and analyzes the causal mechanisms of social phenomena from a configuration perspective (Ragin 2000). The overall qualitative comparative analysis technique may effectively overcome the disadvantages of insufficient interpretation of multivariate interaction effects that exist in a traditional regression analysis. It may optimally present the formation mechanism of a certain social phenomenon (Ragin 2014). FsQCA mainly demonstrates the necessity and sufficiency of the conditions, based on the set relationship between causal conditions and case results. The set relationship is reflected by two indexes: consistency and coverage. Scholars propose that the set consistency value of the necessity test should be >0.9 (Schneider and Wagemann 2012), and the sufficient consistency value of the conditions should be >0.8 (Fiss 2011). Once the set relationship is consistent, the set coverage may be analyzed to show the extent to which the conditional configuration may lead to the result.

3.2. Case Selection

According to the principle of maximum similarity and difference proposed by Rihoux and Ragin (2009, p. 25), cases of public pro-environmental action events were selected from the different regions of China (Table 1). The principle of maximum similarity means that the selected cases should have a degree of compatibility. The principle of maximum difference refers to the diversification of cases and the maximum heterogeneity between them. The public incidents presented in these cases pertain to regional public actions that aroused strong public dissatisfaction and protests. These are regarding public project facilities or enterprise production activities, such as the construction of waste incineration plants. During case selection, we comprehensively considered time and space, and the pro-environmental events represented by these cases that had a significant impact on China at the time; some even generated international public opinion, indicating that these cases are highly typical.

Table 1. List of selected cases

No.	Case titles	Location	Year
1	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Liulitun, Beijing	2007
2	Xiamen PX Project Incident	Xiamen, Fujian	2007
3	Anti-construction of Maglev Train Incident	Shanghai	2008
4	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Panyu, Guangdong	2009
5	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Asuwei, Beijing	2009
6	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Jiangqiao, Shanghai	2009
7	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Wujiang, Jiangsu	2009
8	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Qinhuangdao, Hebei	2010
9	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Haimen, Guangdong	2011
10	PC Project Incident	Tianjin	2012
11	Anti-construction Molybdenum Copper Project Incident	Shifang, Sichuan	2012
12	Prince Paper Mill Incident	Qidong, Jiangsu	2012
13	Anti-construction of Nuclear Fuel Project Incident	Heshan, Guangdong	2013
14	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Zhongtai, Hangzhou	2014
15	Anti-construction of Kangle Garden Incident	Sanjiang, Hainan	2014
16	Maoming PX Project Incident	Maoming, Guangdong	2014
17	Anti-construction of Xiaonanhai Hydropower Station Incident	Chongqing	2015
18	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Shenzhen, Guangdong	2015
19	Anti-construction of Youjia Program Incident	Yangzhou, Jiangsu	2015
20	Anti-construction of Nuclear Waste Plant Incident	Lianyungang, Jiangsu	2016
21	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Xiantao, Hubei	2016
22	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Luhe, Nanjing	2016
23	Anti-construction of Zhongwang Aluminum Project Incident	Daqing, Heilongjiang	2017
24	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Qingyuan, Guangdong	2017
25	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Anshan, Liaoning	2018

3.3. Concept Operationalization

FsQCA analysis requires the operationalization of case conditions and results. During the operationalization process, theoretical literature, Chinese official documents, and social surveys of expert interviews were used.

3.3.1. IND

This study considers the scale of environmental events as an IND of problem severity. This is as it highlights the degree of people’s concern for environmental protection. We measure the event scale according to expert opinions and the classification standard for major public emergencies issued by the State Council of China (2005). This study therefore used the participant count to operationalize IND. The larger the number, the more severe the problem.

3.3.2. FET

Whether an environmental event may become an FET is usually influenced by policymakers’ personal experience and reputation. In modern society, people obtain information from and express their concern regarding external events through the media. The media’s reach has a direct correlation with its role in transmission of environmental events and thus their popularity. Therefore, we determined whether an event is a focusing one by reviewing its level of media attention.

3.3.3. FDB

We employed the variable FDB to explore whether concerns regarding public projects or social development operations can be submitted to the government system (Fontana 2015). Usually, citizens provide FDB via complaints or by speaking to public opinion representatives. Administrative officials also obtain valuable information from their daily management activities (Schneider and Ingram 2019). We employed the number of FDB channels to measure whether the public interest demands were effectively reintroduced into the policy system.

3.3.4. ATN

ATN are solutions or projects tailored for a specific goal or solution. If a problem is presented with a solution, its probability of placement on the government’s decision-making agenda increases (Kingdon 2014). We use the conditions for the formation of ATN to estimate whether the policy solutions are effective in promoting a pro-environmental PAS. These include: forming a policy community, being technically feasible, being likely to develop future constraints, gaining value acceptability, and resulting in an effective scheme.

3.3.5. PEP

PEP are key advocates that promote social issues to the policy agenda. Some issues may become prominent agenda items, partly because influential policymakers may ensure that they garner much attention (Kingdon 2014). In facing pro-environmental policy issues, political leaders, administrative organs, public opinion representatives, social media, and stakeholders are important influences to promote agenda setting. They can accelerate policy termination and transformation. We assigned PEP values based on whether the case involved the above actors.

3.3.6. PEN

In environmental protection cases, the public is the direct stakeholder, and is often the most active influencer (Best et al. 2019). This is also an important influencing source for effective governance (Best et al. 2019; Clark 2021). Therefore, it is necessary to consider public opinion when implementing public projects. This study measures this concept by means of channels for expression of public opinion and the intensity of those opinions.

3.3.7. OPF

OPF often have the resources to influence policy agendas. They can suppress the adoption of policy recommendations that are unfavorable to them. They can also reduce the sincere consideration of such recommendations (Kingdon 2014). During the development of pro-environmental actions, interest groups, mainly local governments and enterprises related to the projects, hope the projects will be implemented because they are the potential beneficiaries. According to Rozbicka and Spohr (2016), the influence of interest groups can be observed through their attitudes and behavior.

3.3.8. GPF

Kingdon (2014) proposes that the turnover of key personnel and jurisdiction adjustments may affect the policy agenda because of changes in action preference. Some new projects may be prioritized for the government’s agenda by new decision-makers. In some environmental events, the residents even oppose the pro-environmental facilities. Whether this demand enters the policy agenda needs to be determined from the administrative authorities’ responses (Flavin and Franko 2017). We used responsiveness, which involves timeliness and effectiveness, to measure the government’s stance on pro-environmental public events (Liao 2018).

3.3.9. PAS

This is the outcome variable. In the selected pro-environmental cases, actions of citizens and efforts of PEP have cumulatively prompted the government to express varying levels of concern for relevant environmental projects. However, environmental issues, political events, and the duration of the policy window will determine whether the solutions may successfully enter the policy agenda (Olavarria-Gambi 2016). Upon setting the agenda, the authorities will act. We used diversified scales between 0 and 1 to reflect the PAS’s quantitative values for the different cases. This was based on whether the government agencies took action and clearly expressed their opinions.

3.4. Measurement and Calibration

We developed measurement and calibration rules of the case conditions and results, and six different scales were established for each concept (Table 2). We assigned values to the causal conditions based on case contents (for details see Appendix Tables A1 and A2). The case information and assignment basis were obtained from authoritative media reports, environmental events stakeholders, and public policy research experts. In accordance with Cepiku et al. (2020), we conducted many semi-structured interviews with experts, the public, and government officials, who were familiar with the incidents. We collected approximately 200 case reports from authoritative media sources and conducted approximately 80 interviews with 35 individuals from April to August 2021 (for details see Appendix Table A3).

Table 2. Calibration rules for causal conditions and case outcomes

			Measurement	Calibrations
				0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.8	1
Causal condition	Problem stream	IND	Number of participants	0	≤250	≤500	≤1,000	≤5,000	>5,000
		FET	Highest level of media involved	No report	County	Municipal	Provincial	National	International
		FDB	Number of feedback channels (social organizations, experts and scholars, public opinion representatives, corporates, and governments)	0	1	2	3	4	≥5
	Policy stream	ATN	Number of the solution features (common-value-oriented, feasible, professional, predictable, and effective)	0	1	2	3	4	5
		PEP	Number of participant types (political leaders, administrative agencies, public opinion representatives, social media, and stakeholders)	0	1	2	3	4	≥5
	Political stream	PEN	Expression channels (online/offline); emotions intensity (intense/mild)	No expression	Either & mild	Both & mild	Either & intense	Both & intense	Extreme situation
		OPF	Influence from local governments and interest groups	No influence	Extremely weak	Weak	General	Strong	Extremely strong
		GPF	Timeliness and effectiveness of government response	No response	Untimely & invalid	Untimely or invalid	Timely & invalid/untimely & valid	Timely or valid	Timely & valid
Outcome	PAS		Actions (positive/negative); statements (explicit/vague)	No response	Negative & vague	Negative or vague	Positive & vague/negative & explicit	Positive or explicit	Positive & explicit

3.5. Ethical Considerations

The data used in this study are partly from the public secondary data and partly from the interviewees (for interview outlines see Appendix B). The data we obtained from the participants are their descriptions of environmental events and the application of these data in the study is approved by them. During the interviews, we clearly explained the purpose of this study to the participants and told them that they could refuse the interviews at any time. We have promised them that we will not disclose or infringe their privacy during the research period and will always abide by all research ethics.

4. Results and Discussion

4.1. Necessity Analysis

We employed the software fsQCA version 3.0 to disclose the trigger combinations of environmental protection public PAS as based on previous data calibration. The consistency scores of PEP and PEN through the set analysis were 0.919 and 0.942, respectively. They are both >0.9. However, the consistency values of the other conditions are <0.9. This indicates that PEP and PEN are prerequisites to promoting the pro-environmental PAS, while the remaining variables are not (Table 3).

Table 3. Necessity analysis of causal conditions (outcome = PAS)

	Consistency	Coverage		Consistency	Coverage
IND	0.8372	0.7579	~IND	0.3372	0.9667
FET	0.8488	0.8295	~FET	0.3837	0.8919
FDB	0.8372	0.8471	~FDB	0.4302	0.9250
ATN	0.7674	0.9296	~ATN	0.5349	0.8519
PEP	0.9186	0.7822	~PEP	0.2791	1.0000
PEN	0.9419	0.7941	~PEN	0.2674	1.0000
OPF	0.7209	0.74699	~OPF	0.4651	0.9524
GPF	0.6977	0.9677	~GPF	0.5581	0.7619

This finding indicates that PEP and PEN are significant influential factors of pro-environmental PAS. This should attract policymakers. Environmental events usually emerge when a project is perceived to threaten residents’ safety or tranquility. Chinese citizens, who are usually highly attached to their native land, possibly due to a long agricultural civilization, usually yearn to live and work in peace and contentment (Yang et al. 2019). Any external behavior intending to change their environment may induce feelings of insecurity. This is especially so under the current conditions of uncertainty. PEN, such as public opinions and mass disturbance, are prominent factors. These need to be considered by the government or other related parties. This serves to enhance the prioritization of social issues and influence policymakers’ decisions within a pro-environmental context (Zahariadis 2016). Street bureaucrats, government leaders, stakeholders, social workers, and experts may become PEP to boost policy formulation and implementation. They may promote pro-environmental issues from public to policy agenda. This may occur via strategies of seeking legitimacy, creating and disseminating knowledge, allying with political elites, and communicating with the most influential leadership (Aviv et al. 2021; Zhang et al. 2021).

4.2. Configurations Analysis

Based on the construction and calculation of truth tables, we discuss the successful “recipes” for pro-environmental PAS. Regarding setting a policy agenda, successful paths require their own characteristics as cases occur in different times and spaces, and each is unique. We set the case frequency threshold to one and the consistency threshold to 0.9. Fourteen configurations are valid and they reflect all 25 cases (Table 4).

Table 4. Truth table for PAS

IND	FET	FDB	ATN	PEP	PEN	OPF	GPF	PAS	cases	raw consist.	PRI consist.	SYM consist
1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	7, 10, 12, 13, 16, 21	1	1	1
1	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	14	1	1	1
1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1
0	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	15	1	1	1
0	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	22	1	1	1
0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	11	1	1	1
1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	1	9, 23	0.967	0.875	0.875
1	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	25	0.963	0.833	0.833
1	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	6	0.960	0.857	0.857
0	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	17, 24	0.955	0.875	0.875
1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1, 4, 5, 19, 20	0.951	0.867	0.867
1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	8	0.946	0.833	0.833
1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	18	0.931	0.750	0.750
1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	3	0.909	0.667	0.667

Seven complex and seven intermediate solutions are obtained via truth table analysis (Table 5). The complex solution analyzes the actual situations and disregards any logical remainder. The simplified solution includes all logical remainders but does not evaluate their rationality. The intermediate solution lies between the two mentioned above. It only considers the logical remainders relevant to the expectation of theoretical direction and empirical evidence (Rihoux and Ragin 2009; Ragin 2014). It can explain the reality and play a role in theoretical prediction (Ingrams 2018; Cepiku et al. 2020). In this study, we chose intermediate solutions to interpret the causality of environmental PAS. The consistency value is 0.8684 and its coverage is 0.7674. This indicates that these solutions may be used to explain the causality of 76.74 per cent of the cases.

Table 5. Conditional configurations of PAS

	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5	S6	S7
IND	●			●	●	●	⊗
FET	●	●	●	●	⊗	●	●
FDB		●	●	●	●		●
ATN			●	⊗	⊗	●	⊗
PEP	●	●	●	●	●	●	⊗
PEN	●	●	●	●	●	●	●
OPF	●	●	●		●	⊗	●
GPF	⊗	⊗		⊗		●	●
Raw coverage	0.4767	0.4884	0.5814	0.4070	0.3372	0.4302	0.1395
Unique coverage	0.0116	0.0116	0.0349	0.0000	0.0233	0.1163	0.0116
Consistency	0.8723	0.8936	0.9434	0.9211	0.9355	1.0000	1.0000
Solution coverage	0.7674
Solution consistency	0.8684

Notes: frequency cutoff = 1, consistency cutoff = 0.909; ● condition exists; ⊗ condition does not exist; blank represents whether the condition exists or does not exist.

As per Table 5, all eight causal conditions simultaneously exist in at least two solutions. The necessary condition, PEN, appears in all seven solutions. PEP have a key role in promoting convergence of the three sources and establishing the policy agenda. It does not appear in S7. This shows that under the uncertain social situation in China, the pro-environmental policy agenda sometimes does not require the full involvement of PEP. This is caused by the self-conflict in their identity (Lin and Wang 2021). PEP are not only promoters of the policy plans but also the targets of policy regulation. When the ATN are not conducive to them, their motivation to promote PAS will decline. During this period, OPF and government attention would become the key roles in offsetting resistance and promoting the pro-environmental PAS. This directly coincides with China’s political uniqueness under the CPC (Chen and Lin 2021).

Each path may explain specific cases (Table 6); however, about 24 per cent of the facts cannot be explained by them. In uncertain environmental events, the causal conditions of PAS should be diverse (Baka et al. 2018), but only eight conditions are included, according to the MSF. This may reduce the paths’ explanatory power. The case information and calibration are derived from media reports, field investigations, and expert interviews. These sources are highly subjective and may influence the interpretability (Rihoux and Ragin 2009).

Table 6. Cases conforming to the causal solutions and modes of PAS

Mode	Solution	Configuration		Case
		Common conditions	Unique conditions
M1	S1	FET*PEP*PEN*~GPF	IND*OPF	1,4,5,8,9,18,19,20,23
	S2		FDB*OPF	1,4,5,8,15,17,19,20,24
	S4		IND*FDB*~ATN	3,8
M2	S3	FDB*PEP*PEN*OPF	FET*ATN	1,2,4,5,11,17,19,20,24
	S5		IND*~FET*~ATN	6,25
M3	S6	FET*PEN*GPF	IND*ATN*PEP*~OPF	7,10,12,13,14,16,21
	S7		~IND*FDB*~ATN*~PEP*OPF	22

The case distribution in different solutions also shows these configurations’ unique interpretation; however, they have some commonalities. We integrated the seven paths into three successful patterns according to their commonalities and differences (Table 6). The first is the focusing-events-driven mode (S1, S2, and S4). In addition to the necessary conditions, the model’s main characteristics are the existence of focus events and the government’s inattention. Although GPF may impact PAS (Dai et al. 2021), despite ineffective government responses, the environmental policy agenda can be successfully set under the combination of large-scale public participation, effective FDB, and strong interest groups. The premise is that citizens’ environmental actions should receive adequate awareness. The second is the public-opinion-driven mode (S3 and S5). It includes two conditions: FDB channels and organized political power. On the premise of meeting PEP and PEN, regardless of GPF, the combination of high attention to the event, effective FDB channels, reasonable ATN, and organized interest groups may promote PAS. If attention to the event and policy solutions are lacking, and the scale of citizen action participation is large enough, the policy agenda can also be successfully established. The final mode is government-attentiveness-driven (S6 and S7). The biggest difference between this mode and the former two lies in the condition of the authorities’ attention. The public opinion FDB channels and strong political forces may promote PAS under the cooperation of strong social attention, positive government response, and the two necessary conditions. Environmental issues must be returned to the policy subsystem and the OPF before they are evaluated by government authorities. These include those interest groups with resources to change the environment and influential elites in pro-environmental nonprofit organizations (Béland 2016; Rozbicka and Spohr 2016).

4.3. Inferences from China’s Pro-Environmental PAS

Two inferences are obtained from the analysis above. The diversity of conditional combinations is a response to environmental events in a volatile society (Bennett and Lemoine 2014). Under China’s prevailing uncertainty, when an FET appears, the PEN will be formulated. The policy agenda will be set (or not) in different combinations of variables, like the participation scale, FDB channels, ATN, political forces, and GPF under the influence of PEP. Each combination optimally works to resolve environmental problems in a specific context. Policy stakeholders and entrepreneurs should make comprehensive observations and focus on the development period for pro-environmental policies. This increases safety and enables the accessibility of explicit details under the current uncertainties (Weible 2007; Best et al. 2019).

Conversely, the interpretability of Kingdon’s MSF needs to be redefined in studying China’s pro-environmental issues. Although MSF is widely applied in analyzing policy agenda triggering mechanisms (Rozbicka and Spohr 2016; Cairney 2020), we need to reexamine its explanatory power when encountering complex and ambiguous social issues. Although each path contains one or more conditions from each stream, none contains all eight conditions. Therefore, in our study, a complete coupling of all three streams is unnecessary in PAS. PEP and PEN are the necessary conditions to trigger China’s PAS (Zhu 2008; Teets 2018; Zhang et al. 2021). In combination with other conditions, they have formed several successful paths. However, among all seven configurations, ATN and GPF appear the least frequently. Thus, they are less important in PAS. Therefore, in China, especially regarding pro-environmental issues, the public participates in policy activities without solutions, and policymakers first set the policy agenda. Thereafter, they determinedly seek action plans from all parties ranging from the government to the nonprofit organizations and the social community (Clark 2021). In China’s political system, the CPC is the only ruling party and the core leader in all fields. Its ruling concept and ideology are consistently people-centered. Regardless of the administrative organs’ behavior preference, they should seek effective solutions to the mass challenges under the rulers’ guidance (Teets 2018). Therefore, MSF should be used in conjunction with: (a) other theoretical frameworks to adapt to the society’s current uncertainty and complexity; and (b) local culture and regimes to preserve its openness and inclusiveness (Cairney and Jones 2016; Zahariadis 2016).

5. Conclusion and Limitations

This study aimed to demonstrate the necessary conditions and their combinations required for triggering agenda setting for pro-environmental issues and alleviating environmental social conflicts in an uncertain social context. In accordance with MSF, eight factors (IND, FET, FDB, ATN, PEP, PEN, OPF, and GPF), were selected as the causal conditions. This was considering China’s unique political system, policy activity features, and national characteristics. We used PAS as the outcome variable. Based on the fsQCA analysis of China’s 25 public pro-environmental action cases, we determined PEP and PEN as the two prerequisites for transforming a pro-environmental issue into a government agenda. Seven conditional configurations of successful PAS were obtained. These may be recombined into three patterns, driven by focusing events, public opinion, and government attentiveness.

As indicated by this study, China’s pro-environmental PAS does not require the convergence of all three streams. This is not supported by prior research (Knaggard 2015; Baka et al. 2018). MSF’s unsuitability in China’s social context may also demonstrate the adaptive adjustment made by the actions of PAS under uncertain social situations. We drew two inferences. First, conditional configuration is a response to social uncertainty, and each combination is optimal to solve environmental challenges under a specific context. Second, the interpretability of Kingdon’s MSF needs to be redefined when studying China’s pro-environmental issues as complete coupling of the three streams is unnecessary in the PAS process. This implies that the MSF appears slightly limited in explaining uncertain social issues. This could be attributed to the differences within the political system, traditional culture, and policy cognition (Cairney and Jones 2016). These can be explored in subsequent studies.

Although this study provides an overview and introduction for future research, it has some limitations: First, we replaced the ruling party’s variable ideology in MSF with the variable GPF. However, whether this can consistently be applied to other studies is undetermined. Second, whether the configuration of conditions to trigger pro-environmental PAS can be extended to other public issues is not established. Finally, this study does not thoroughly explain the significance of the missing conditions in each path. We will continue to improve the dialogues between MSF and other theories to intensify its academic organization, uniformity, and testability. We will also advance our understanding of different paths. Therefore, practitioners will know the optimum timings to submit social challenges for policy review. These policies may be beneficial to the public.

Acknowledgements

The authors appreciate the valuable comments of the lead editor Professor Dr. Zhu Xufeng and the anonymous reviewers. The authors would especially like to thank the interviewees for their kind support in the surveys.

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Correction Statement

This article has been republished with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the National Social Science Fund of China [16BZZ056, 14BZZ021] and the Social Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province[19ZZC002].

Notes on contributors

Jie Wang

Jie Wang is an assistant professor at the Research Center for Government Governance and Public Policy at Yangzhou University, China. His research is focused on public policy implementation and evaluation.

Yating Wang

Yating Wang is an assistant professor at the Research Center for Government Governance and Public Policy at Yangzhou University, China. Her research is focused on public cultural services and public policy implementation.

Weizhong Liu

Weizhong Liu is a full professor at the Research Center for Government Governance and Public Policy at Yangzhou University, China. His research is focused on synergistic governance theory, public policy and public service.

Yunyu Fan

Yunyu Fan is a PHD candidate at the School of Politics and Public Administration at Soochow University, China. Her research is focused on local government and social governance and public service.

Yu Zhang

Yu Zhang is the director and a full professor at the Research Center for Government Governance and Public Policy at Yangzhou University, China. Her research is focused on environmental policy, citizen participation, and public policy agenda.

Appendix A

Table A1 shows the calibration results and the assignment basis of the causal conditions and outcomes of the 25 sample cases in this study.

Table A1. Calibration results and the assignment basis of the involved cases

No.	IND	FET	FDB	ATN	PEP	PEN	OPF	GPF	PAS
1	1	0.8	0.8	0.6	1	0.8	0.8	0.2	0.8
	Thousands of people joined the campaign	CCTV, Beijing News, infzm.com, etc.	Supervision, investigation, demonstration, bureaucratic experience	Policy community, feasible technology, expectation of future constraints	Municipal government, State Environmental Protection Administration, scholars, media, residents	Apply for administrative reconsideration, complain to the government	Insisted that the project is a key infrastructure project	Not very positive, quite tough	Forced to abandon
	https://news.sina.com.cn/c/2007-07-12/162813433010.shtml; http://news.cntv.cn/map/20110209/100220.shtml; Field interviews.
2	1	0.8	0.8	0.6	1	0.8	0.8	0.6	0.8
	More than 5,000 citizens took a collective “walk”	Xinhuanet.com, People’s Daily, Guangming Daily, etc.	Assessment, investigation, demonstration, bureaucratic experience	Technically feasible, expectation of future constraints, effective scheme	Xiamen municipal government, State Administration, experts and scholars, residents, NGOs	Group walk; disclose information through media and network	Claimed that the project is legal, environmentally friendly, and non-carcinogenic	Positive handling but attitude not firm	Project shutdown
	https://china.huanqiu.com/article/9CaKrnJJCI7; http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-BYXD200714019.htm; Field interviews.
3	1	0.6	0.6	0.4	0.8	0.6	0.4	0.4	0.4
	Tens of thousands of people marched	Sina.com, inewsweek.cn, etc.	Investigation, demonstration, bureaucratic experience	Technical feasibility, expectation of future constraints	Municipal government, residents, experts, social organizations	The crowd took a walk in the square in protest	Communicated with the public	Not positive, vague attitude	The project had not been stopped
	http://www.jodeibel.com/article-19-43304-0.html; https://news.sina.com.cn/c/sd/2009-02-26/092817292982.shtml; Field interviews.
4	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.6	0.8	1	1	0.4	0.4
	Thousands of people gathered and protested	CCTV, Guangzhou TV, Guangzhou Daily, etc.	Supervision, evaluation, investigation and demonstration	Policy community, acceptable value, expectation of future constraints	Guangdong Provincial Information Center, experts and scholars, public opinion representatives, media	Assembly and protest; Joint objection	The municipal government firmly promoted waste incineration	Not timely and the effect is not very good	Delayed the decision, but finally stopped
	http://news.163.com/special/00013VUU/panyuroll.html; https://news.sina.com.cn/c/p/20091216/15228219.shtml; Field interviews.
5	0.6	1	0.8	0.6	0.8	1	0.8	0.4	0.4
	People in northern Beijing and owners near Asuwei	chinanews.com, People’s Daily, huanqiu.com, etc.	Supervision, evaluation, demonstration, bureaucratic experience	Technically feasible, expectation of future constraints, effective scheme	Government, academia, enterprises, residents	Demonstrations and protests; post online in protest	Failed to initiate plant relocation in accordance with established commitments	Not timely, not very active in handling	The project was suspended and restarted after some years
	https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2014/12-26/6913387.shtml; https://china.huanqiu.com/article/9CaKrnJKjNe; Field interviews.
6	0.6	0.2	0.8	0.4	0.6	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.4
	Hundreds of citizens took a “walk” in protest	Tianya.cn, etc.	Supervision, evaluation, investigation and demonstration	Technical feasibility, expectation of future constraints	Stakeholders, public opinion representatives, media	Post online; parade offline	Failed to pay attention to the issues raised by the hearing representatives	Quite positive	Project suspended
	http://bbs.tianya.cn/post-157-525058-1.shtml ; Field interviews.
7	1	0.8	0.8	0.6	0.8	0.8	0.2	0.8	0.8
	The parade crowd has reached nearly 10,000	Xinhuanet.com, solidwaste.com, etc.	Supervision, evaluation, investigation and demonstration	Policy community, acceptable value, expectation of future constraints	Administrative agencies, public opinion representatives, social media, stakeholders	Protested and boycotted the factory ignition; jammed the highway	Actively listened to the demands of the masses	Timely and effective	Project suspended
	https://www.solidwaste.com.cn/news/177098.html; https://www.solidwaste.com.cn/news/176987.html; Field interviews.
8	0.8	0.8	0.6	0.4	1	0.6	0.8	0.4	0.4
	More than 1,500 villagers and 37 village committees	China Weekly, international environmental protection online, etc.	Supervision, evaluation and investigation	Acceptable value, expectation of future constraints	Department of environmental protection; NGOs, experts, lawyers; residents	Signed joint protest	Claimed that the project is pollution-free; forged the public participation questionnaires	Powerful, unwilling to stop work, forced to stop work	Long-term game, and finally the project was stopped
	https://news.sina.com.cn/c/sd/2013-03-27/104226656237.shtml; https://www.huanbao-world.com/; Field interviews.
9	1	0.8	0.4	0.6	0.6	1	0.8	0.2	0.8
	Tens of thousands of villagers	Xinhuanet.com, Guangzhou Daily, etc.	Investigation and demonstration	Feasible technology, acceptable value, effective scheme	Public opinion representatives, media, stakeholders	Crashed into government buildings, damaged office equipment	The project was ordered to stop construction and go through the EIA but failed	Playing games with the public, delaying work stoppage	Project shutdown
	http://www.aqzyzx.com/system/2012/01/16/005316913.shtml; Field interviews.
10	0.8	0.6	0.6	0.8	0.8	0.6	0.4	0.8	0.8
	Thousands of people participate in the “walking” parade	Caixin Weekly, caixin.com, SOHU.com, etc.	Supervision, parade, bureaucratic experience	Policy community, feasible technology, acceptable value, future constraints	Political leaders, public opinion representatives, social media, stakeholders	March and protest	Complied with public opinion, stopped work and reconducted the EIA	Actively cooperated	Stopped the project and conducted EIA again
	http://news.sohu.com/20120828/n351748023.shtml; https://magazine.caixin.com/2012-08-03/100419188.html; https://companies.caixin.com/2012-04-24/100383265.html; Field interviews.
11	0.4	0.8	0.6	0.6	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8
	Thousands of people participate in “walking”	People’s Daily, cpcnews.cn, etc.	Assessment, investigation, parade	Feasible technology, acceptable value, effective scheme	Public opinion representatives, experts, social media, stakeholders	Citizens gathered, broke, and damaged government facilities	Issued a notice prohibiting illegal assembly	Positively responded and cooperated with public opinion	The project was stopped urgently
	http://www.ctia.com.cn/Article/2012/103931.html; http://finance.people.com.cn/n/2012/0704/c70846-18442727.html; Field interviews.
12	1	0.6	1	0.6	1	1	0.2	1	1
	Nearly 100,000 people	SOHU.com, etc.	Supervision, evaluation, investigation, demonstration, bureaucratic experience	Expectation of policy community, technical feasibility, future constraints	Administrative agencies, opinion representatives, social media, experts, stakeholders	March and protest, block the streets and occupy government buildings	No mandatory measures were taken; expressed its understanding of public behavior	Positive and considered public opinion	Project cancellation
	http://news.sohu.com/20130129/n364897723.shtml; https://www.tanmizhi.com/html/22773.html; Field interviews.
13	0.6	0.6	0.8	0.6	1	0.8	0.4	0.8	1
	Nearly 1,000 people gathered and protested	Caijing, SOHU.com, etc.	Supervision, evaluation, investigation and demonstration	Expectation of policy community, technical feasibility, future constraints	NPC deputies, CPPCC members, officials, media, stakeholders	Gathered at the gate of the city government to protest	Held lectures, explained and publicized	Actively solicited public opinion	Project cancellation
	http://news.sohu.com/20130728/n382762965.shtml; https://www.163.com/news/article/93LG6EQD0001124J.html; Field interviews.
14	0.8	0.8	0.4	1	0.8	1	0.4	1	1
	Thousands of people	SOHU.com, Zhongxin, Fenghuang, etc.	Assessment, parade	Policy community, feasible technology, acceptable value, expectation of future constraints, effective scheme	Public opinion representatives, social organizations, administrative organs, experts and scholars	Blocking highways, smashing and damaging vehicles, beating police	Negotiated with the masses, proposed benefit subsidy schemes	Actively resolved the conflicts	Conflicts were resolved and the project was restarted in an orderly way
	http://www.mnw.cn/news/shehui/1642596.html; https://www.guancha.cn/economy/2017_03_24_400251.shtml; Field interviews.
15	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.4	0.8	1	1	0.2	0.8
	About 300 people	Beijing Times, Hainan Daily, etc.	Assessment, investigation, parade	Feasible technology, acceptable value	Expert lawyers, public opinion representatives, local officials	Damaged buildings; clashed with officials; overturned vehicles	Verbal conflicts, physical conflicts, police fired teargas and beat the protesters	Negative response	Project shutdown
	http://www.mnw.cn/news/china/824068.html; http://www.mnw.cn/news/china/822341.html; https://www.fabao365.com/news/mingxing/1002805.html; Field interviews.
16	0.8	1	0.6	0.6	1	1	0.4	0.8	1
	More than 1,000 people	People.com, Sina.com, Beijing Times, Hong Kong Oriental Daily News, etc.	Assessment, parade, bureaucratic experience	Policy community, acceptable value, expectation of future constraints	Political leaders, administrative agencies, public opinion representatives, social media, stakeholders	Gather and walk in front of the government; smashed shops and set fire to police cars	Public opinion would be widely heard before making decisions	Complied with public opinion and considered reasonable demands	Suspended the project and listened to public opinion
	http://news.sohu.com/20140404/n397734208.shtml; http://www.dalisn.gov.cn/xwzx/bdyw/29275.htm; Field interviews.
17	0.4	0.8	0.6	0.8	1	0.6	1	0	0.4
	Unknown	People’s Daily, CCTV, thepaper.cn, etc.	Supervision, evaluation and investigation	Expectation of policy community, feasible technology, acceptable value, future constraints	NPC deputies, experts and scholars, media, environmental NGOs, internet users	Arguing on the internet; environmental NGOs and NPC deputies opposed	The hydropower sector was powerful, criticized and exerted pressure on the experts	Passively responding and delayed the problem-handling process	The project was stopped after 10 more years
	https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_1320053; https://www.jfdaily.com/news/detail?id=4523; Field interviews.
18	0.8	0.8	0.4	0.2	1	1	0.6	0.2	0.2
	Thousands of residents	thepaper.cn, Nanfang Daily, etc.	Investigation and demonstration	Expectation of future constraints	Stakeholders, internet users, media, judiciary, government officials	Display banners and rallies in front of Shenzhen Citizen Center	The rally was forcibly dispersed by a large number of police, and many people were arrested	Negative response	No clear response from local government
	http://www.wyzxwk.com/Article/shehui/2015/01/336058.html; https://www.sohu.com/a/108411406_260616; Field interviews.
19	0.6	0.6	1	0.6	1	0.8	0.8	0.4	0.8
	Hundreds of people in the neighborhood	Surging news, SOHU.com, etc.	Supervision, evaluation, investigation, demonstration, bureaucratic experience	Policy community, acceptable value, expectation of future constraints	Experts and scholars, media, stakeholders, environmental protection departments, political leaders	Residents jointly boycotted and held protest banners to express their demands	“Construction before approval” and forged the questionnaires	Not very responsive, poor effect	The project was suspended and carried out EIA again
	https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_1534913; https://www.sohu.com/a/115089172_116062; Field interviews.
20	1	1	1	0.6	0.6	0.8	1	0.2	0.8
	Tens of thousands of citizens marched on the streets	SOHU.com, Lianhe Zaobao, etc.	Social media such as Weibo, wechat and tieba, demonstrations	Technical feasibility, acceptable value, expectation of future constraints	Network media, citizens, public opinion representatives	Many demonstrations and protests have led to riots and fermentation of public opinion on the internet	Banned the assemblies, threatened the masses; criticized the anti-nuclear sentiment of the masses	Ignored public opinion, negative response	Project site selection was suspended
	https://www.sohu.com/a/109481242_131990?_trans_=000014_bdss_dkygcbz; Field interviews.
21	1	0.6	0.8	0.8	0.8	1	0.2	0.6	0.8
	Hundreds of thousands of people	Beijing Times, huanqiu.com, Sina.com, etc.	Demonstrations, investigations, Weibo, wechat	Community of policies, acceptable values, expectation of future constraints, effective scheme	Network media, citizens, political leaders, media	March and protest, post online to protest and become a hot search topic	The mayor went to the streets to visit the protesting residents and answered public’s questions through microblog	Poor timeliness of response	Project stopped
	https://m.huanqiu.com/article/9CaKrnJXejM; http://news.sina.com.cn/c/nd/2016-06-26/doc-ifxtmweh2549528.shtml; Field interviews.
22	0.4	0.8	0.6	0.4	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.8	0.8
	Surrounding citizens	CCTV, chinanews.com, thepaper.cn, SOHU.com, Beijing News, etc.	Posting and evaluation on mass demonstrations, evaluation, posting on online platforms such as Xici Hutong	Technical feasibility, expectation of future constraints	Citizens, public opinion representatives	Post online and parade offline	Would listen to public opinion, but the enterprise said that the project was legal and compliant	Quite positive	Project suspension and relocation
	https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_1508736; http://news.cctv.com/2016/08/02/ARTIwjoZIzXov8IREGuK7mX1160802.shtml; Field interviews.
23	0.8	0.6	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.8	0.8	0.2	0.4
	Surrounding citizens	Beijing News, thepaper.cn, etc.	Demonstrations, letters and visits	Policy community, feasible technology, acceptable value	Citizens, media, public opinion representatives	Post online and protest offline	Stated that the project procedures were legal and the project would not pollute the environment	Not positive enough, negative response	Suspended the project and listened to public opinion
	https://www.guancha.cn/economy/2017_02_14_394176_s.shtml; Field interviews.
24	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.4	1
	400 people	SOHU.com, etc.	Petition, parade and evaluation	Policy community, acceptable value, expectation of future constraints	Political bureaucrats, citizens, public opinion representatives	Post online and protest offline	Government maintained communication with the site residents, the police arrested the troublemakers	Not very responsive	Project suspension
	https://finance.gucheng.com/201705/3268869.shtml; https://wenku.baidu.com/view/df87e9293a3567ec102de2bd960590c69fc3d813.html; Field interviews.
25	1	0.2	0.6	0.2	0.6	0.6	1	0	0.4
	More than 5,000 people	We media, etc.	Petition, parade, bureaucratic experience	Expectation of future constraints	Public opinion representatives, stakeholders, enterprises	Offline protest, conflicts between police and the people	The websites were blocked; police beat the protesters; some elderly people, children and pregnant women were beaten	Negative response, tough attitude and means	The project restarted after two years
	https://weibo.com/ttarticle/p/show?id=2309634314261064162929; Field interviews.

Table A2 shows the case list that includes the information on actions taken by local governments in response to environmental protection events.

Table A2. Official actions in each case

No.	Case titles	Location	Year	Official actions
1	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Liulitun, Beijing	2007	Held residents’ symposium, and the project was stopped and rediscussed
2	PX Project Incident	Xiamen	2007	Popularized pro-environmental knowledge and discussed the project’s relocation
3	Anti-construction of Maglev Train Incident	Shanghai	2008	Coordinated, persuaded, and solicited public opinions
4	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Panyu, Guangdong	2009	Held a press conference to convey the government’s intention, and then carried out a coordination meeting to consider the relocation of the project
5	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Asuwei, Beijing	2009	The project was stopped
6	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Jiangqiao, Shanghai	2009	Held a symposium and conducted public opinion polls, then held a hearing, and finally the project was shelved
7	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Wujiang, Jiangsu	2009	A press conference was held and the project was stopped
8	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Qinhuangdao, Hebei	2010	Carried out environmental protection evaluation and verification and shut down the project
9	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Haimen, Guangdong	2011	Negotiated with the people and stopped the construction of power plants
10	PC Project Incident	Tianjin	2012	Stopped construction and reevaluated the environmental impact
11	Anti-construction Molybdenum Copper Project Incident	Shifang, Sichuan	2012	Persuaded and explained; politicians made commitments, issued the environmental impact assessment report and stopped the project
12	Prince Paper Mill Incident	Qidong, Jiangsu	2012	Closed the road, shielded the network and canceled the project
13	Anti-construction of Nuclear Fuel Project Incident	Heshan, Guangdong	2013	Extended the publicity period of the project at first, then decided to cancel the project
14	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Zhongtai, Hangzhou	2014	Held a press conference to explain and fully listened to the opinions of the masses
15	Anti-construction of Kangle Garden Incident	Sanjiang, Haikou	2014	Stopped construction, increased the publicity on the science, and strived to reach a consensus with the public
16	PX Project Incident	Maoming, Guangdong	2014	Issued notices, invited netizens to attend the press conference and listened to public opinions
17	Anti-construction of Xiaonanhai Hydropower Station Incident	Chongqing	2015	The Ministry of Environmental Protection stopped construction
18	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Shenzhen	2015	The project was stopped by the government
19	Anti-construction of Youjia Program Incident	Yangzhou, Jiangsu	2015	Issued a statement of stopping the project
20	Anti-construction of Nuclear Waste Plant Incident	Lianyungang, Jiangsu	2016	Appealed to the masses not to believe the rumors, and then issued a statement to stop the site selection of the project
21	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Xiantao, Hubei	2016	The mayor went to the streets to talk with residents, and then issued a statement of suspension of the project
22	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Luhe, Nanjing	2016	Suspended project, carried out environmental assessment, and paid attention to the opinions of the masses
23	Anti-construction of Zhongwang Aluminum Project Incident	Daqing,Heilongjiang	2017	Suspended the project and strived to reach a consensus with the public
24	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Qingyuan, Guangdong	2017	Held a press conference and announced the suspension of the project
25	Anti-construction of Waste Incineration Power Plant Incident	Anshan, Liaoning	2018	No clear statement, the project was progressing normally

Table A3 lists the interviewees.

Table A3. List of the interviewees

No.	Title	Gender	Age	Occupation	Affiliation	Location	Interviews, time	Interviews, frequency	Interviews, method
1	Mr. Liang	male	41	teacher	university	Yangzhou, Jiangsu	April–May 2021	4	offline
2	Miss Wei	female	34	teacher	university	Yangzhou, Jiangsu	April–May 2021	3	offline
3	Mrs. Sun	female	53	social worker	community sector	Wuxi, Jiangsu	April 2021	2	offline
4	Miss Chen	female	32	official	township government	Yanchen, Jiangsu	April 2021	1	online
5	Mr. Zhao	male	39	researcher	university	Yangzhou, Jiangsu	April 2021	4	offline
6	Mr. Wang	male	37	house agent	real estate agency	Shanghai	April 2021	3	online
7	Miss Li	female	30	official	district government	Jiaxing, Zhejiang	April–May 2021	3	online
8	Mr. Su	male	51	doctor	hospital	Yangzhou, Jiangsu	May 2021	2	online
9	Mr. Zhang	male	36	house agent	real estate agency	Shanghai	May 2021	1	online
10	Miss Shen	female	44	teacher	college	Nanjing, Jiangsu	May 2021	3	online
11	Mr. Zhao	male	54	teacher	high school	Yangzhou, Jiangsu	May–June 2021	2	online
12	Mr. Chen	male	52	shopkeeper	pharmacy	Nanjing, Jiangsu	May 2021	2	online
13	Mr. Li	male	38	motor mechanic	motor repair shop	Yangzhou, Jiangsu	May 2021	1	online
14	Miss Liu	female	29	pharmacist	pharmacy	Xiantao, Hubei	June 2021	1	online
15	Mr. Chen	male	43	official	municipal government	Haikou, Hainan	June 2021	2	online
16	Miss Bao	female	34	teacher	university	Nanjing, Jiangsu	June 2021	3	online
17	Miss Cai	female	30	teacher	university	Beijing	June–July 2021	3	online
18	unknown	female	35	shopkeeper	food store	Yangzhou, Jiangsu	June 2021	1	online
19	Mr. Kong	male	47	teacher	university	Yangzhou, Jiangsu	June 2021	4	offline
20	Miss Zhu	female	28	salesman	supermarket	Lianyungang	June 2021	1	online
21	Miss Gao	female	36	teacher	college	Xiamen, Fujian	July–Aug. 2021	3	online
22	Miss Qian	female	31	official	district government	Hangzhou, Zhejiang	July 2021	2	online
23	Mr. Zhu	male	39	shopkeeper	grocery store	Nantong, Jiangsu	July 2021	1	online
24	Mrs. Pan	female	55	resident	unemployed	Yanchen, Jiangsu	July 2021	3	online
25	unknown	female	31	cashier	grocery store	Tianjin	July 2021	1	online
26	Miss Li	female	36	researcher	university	Suzhou, Jiangsu	July 2021	2	online
27	Mr. Chen	male	54	official	municipal government	Guangzhou	July 2021	2	online
28	Mr. Li	male	64	retiree	retired	Xiamen, Fujian	July 2021	1	online
29	Mr. Zhou	male	39	teacher	university	Beijing	July 2021	2	online
30	Mr. Wu	male	40	researcher	research institution	Nanjing, Jiangsu	July–Aug. 2021	3	online
31	Miss Wang	female	27	salesman	grocery store	Chongqing	July 2021	1	online
32	Mr. Wang	male	42	official	county government	Nantong, Jiangsu	July 2021	4	online
33	Mr. Xu	male	40	researcher	research institution	Yangzhou, Jiangsu	Aug. 2021	3	offline
34	Mr. Chen	female	32	salesman	fruit shop	Wuxi, Jiangsu	Aug. 2021	1	online
35	Mrs. Zhou	female	58	resident	unemployed	Suzhou, Jiangsu	Aug. 2021	1	online

Appendix B

Interview outline

1. Could you please recall the development process of X pro-environmental event?

2. What economic losses and casualties did this incident cause?

3. What do you think of the influence and popularity of this event at that time?

4. How did the public react to the incident at that time?

5. Do you think the demands and voices of the public at that time could be effectively transmitted to the local authorities?

6. What measures did the local government take after the incident?

7. Do you think the local government has clear and effective solutions to the environmental problems?

8. Do you think local government and interest groups can fully control the development trend of this environmental incident?

9. Who do you think (politicians, the public, the media, experts, social organizations, etc.) played a key role in solving the environmental problems?

10. Do you think the performance of local governments in dealing with environmental incidents is satisfactory?

11. Do you think this incident made the local authorities put relevant environmental issues on their agenda?