Rethinking Gentrification and Displacement: Modeling the Demographic Impact of Urban Regeneration

Abstract

The urban research community tends to view gentrification-based displacement as the primary demographic impact of urban regeneration. This study reopens the discussion by asking whether urban regeneration in Israel does indeed work to the detriment of local homeowners, or whether it expands their opportunities for social mobility. By employing a micro-simulation model based on data pertaining to the households and the existing and planned apartments in the city, the study finds that whereas low-income residents are expected to be displaced, most of the middle-income homeowners will survive the process and benefit from a new apartment.

Keywords:

• Urban regeneration
• gentrification
• displacement
• microsimulation
• homeownership
• Israel

Acknowledgements

Daphna Levine is grateful to the Azrieli Foundation for awarding her an Azrieli Fellowship and for the financial support of the Dr Etel Fridman Memorial Scholarship from the Center for Economic and Social Research at the Tel Aviv Municipality.

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Daphna Levine

Daphna Levine is a PhD candidate in the Faculty of Architecture and Town Planning at the Technion – Israel Institute of Technology. Daphna is engaged in the search of routes to integrate social issues into urban planning, by creating models of concrete areas for representing abstract social phenomena. Specifically, her research examines urban redevelopment as an opportunity for social mobility of the lower-middle-class. By combining cutting-edge technology (e.g. Spatial Microsimulation) and qualitative research, Daphna strives to encode and assess the demographic dynamics and social impacts of urban redevelopment processes. Her research was awarded the Azrieli Fellowship for outstanding academic merit and exceptional personal achievements.

Shai Sussman

Shai Sussman is a Civil Engineer in Geoinformation and enrolled master’s in Urban Planning at Technion – Israel Institute of Technology. As part of his thesis, currently, he is involved in joint research between Cornell-Tech and the Technion, where he is developing a spatial-microsimulation platform in the domain of urban planning. The simulation’s role is to simplify complexity questions and asset the social impact within time and space regarding urban re-developments and economic changes. Shai has been involved in various types of developments that involved mapping the environment, both in commercial and open-source environments.

Sharon Yavo Ayalon

Sharon Yavo Ayalon is a Postdoctoral Associate at Cornell Tech, developing visualizations and simulations to achieve social impact in planning. Currently, she has been focusing on mapping NYC social distancing stories and the demographic changes resulting from privatization processes. Her Ph.D. explored the linkage between urbanism and art and the manner in which local identity, spatial (in)justice, and social (ex-in)clusion are forged or deconstructed by artistic activity in cities. This research was awarded the President of Israel’s Grant for Scientific Excellence and Innovation.

Meirav Aharon-Gutman

Meirav Aharon-Gutman is a faculty member at the department of Architecture and Town Planning Technion, the academic Head of the Social Hub, Technion and Acting member at the National Council for Planning and Building, Israel. Meirav is Fulbright (twice) and Marie Curie award scholar. Her main research project is to translate social issues (mainly spatial inequality) to form, line and color in order to literally put them on the policy makers table: by doing so she shape new medium for Social Impact Assessment, she develop Data driven Policy simulation, and built Smart social theatre.