In the Shadow of Trump: The 2022 Midterm Elections

Abstract

In the months leading up to the 2022 midterms, Republicans believed a variety of factors were working in their favor including inflation and overall state of the economy, redistricting, and Biden’s low levels of public approval. After the electoral dust settled, Republicans won a narrow majority in the House, but actually lost a seat in the Senate. Why did Republicans fail to fully capitalize on the specific midterm conditions that historically have favored the out-party? This paper examines the results of the 2022 primary and general elections, identifies electoral trends and themes, and considers the implications of the results in terms of prior congressional election research. Based on aggregate election data and survey-based evidence, it appears that former President Trump’s enduring shadow over the midterms and the Supreme Court’s decision in the Dobbs case hindered the Republicans’ ability to win a larger share of seats in Congress.

Keywords:

• congressional elections
• midterm elections
• primaries
• nationalization
• Congress
• Trump

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/national-results/house/.

2 Since we do not have access to a specific question in the 2022 CES asking respondents about their perceptions of the Dobbs decision, this is the closest alternative that is currently available for us to use.

3 For related discussion of the 2022 midterms based upon analysis and evidence from the 2022 CES, see Carson and Jacobson (2024).

4 We also observe differential patterns of voting among respondents in the 2022 CES based upon their primary source of news. For those reporting they regularly watch Fox News, for instance, an overwhelming majority were more likely to vote in person on Election Day.