Much Ado About Facebook? Evidence from 80 Congressional Campaigns in Chile

ABSTRACT

How do political candidates combine social media campaign tools with on-the-ground political campaigns to pursue segmented electoral strategies? We argue that online campaigns can reproduce and reinforce segmented electoral appeals. Furthermore, our study suggests that electoral segmentation remains a broader phenomenon that includes social media as but one of many instruments by which to appeal to voters. To test our argument, we analyze the case of the 2017 legislative elections in Chile. We combine an analysis of Facebook and online electoral campaign data from 80 congressional campaigns that competed in three districts with ethnographic sources (i.e., campaigns observed on the ground and in-depth interviews with candidates). The results of this novel study suggest that intensive online campaigning mirrors offline segmentation.

KEYWORDS:

• Congressional campaigns
• Facebook
• electoral segmentation
• mobilization
• Chile; computational methods

Notes

1. The online appendix features several other examples of each type of post. We relied on at least two independent coders for each post, and checked the reliability of their categorization, re-running the analysis for each post that had a discrepant interpretation, by adding a third codification. All coders were previously trained research assistants, and most of them also took part in participant observation of campaigns during 2017.

2. Each variable was standardized, as reflected in our online appendix, before being included in the k-means cluster procedure. Thus, we assigned equivalent weight to each of the variables entered into the analysis. We explored different partition scenarios, using 2–6 groups, and found the k = 3 solution to be optimal for maximizing between- groups differences, while retaining internally consistent and sufficiently large groups.

3. An interactive map can be found at https://github.com/politicamente/fb_ssrc_chile/blob/master/output/04b_capture_map_clusters.png. In the figure, dots outside district limits indicate candidates joining campaign activities of candidates from their party or coalition in adjacent districts.

4. The partisan distribution of candidates across clusters is uneven, but each cluster included candidates from most parties (the only exception is the absence of Chile Vamos – the center-right coalition – candidates in Cluster 2, and the near absence of Frente Amplio – the leftist coalition – candidates in Cluster 1 and of Christian Democrat candidates in Cluster 3). The online appendix also includes information on candidates’ party and coalition membership, which do not systematically map onto the three types of Facebook campaign we identified.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo of Chile [ANID-Millennium Science Initiative Program-ICN17_002; ANID-Fondecyt-1190072]; Social Science Research Council [SMDR-010-073,SMDR-010-089].

Notes on contributors

Juan Pablo Luna

Juan Pablo Luna (PhD, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) is Professor at the Institute of Political Science and the School of Government at Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, and Associate Researcher with the Millennium Institute for Foundational Research on Data.

Cristian Pérez

Cristian Pérez (PhD, University of Washington at St. Louis) is Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Florida, USA.

Sergio Toro

Sergio Toro (PhD, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile) is Associate Professor in the Department of Public Administration and Political Science at Universidad de Concepción, Chile, and Adjunct Researcher with the Millennium Institute for Foundational Research on Data.

Fernando Rosenblatt

Fernando Rosenblatt (PhD, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile) is Associate Professor of Political Science at Universidad Diego Portales, Chile, and Young Researcher with the Millennium Institute for Foundational Research on Data.

Bárbara Poblete

Bárbara Poblete (PhD, Universitat Pompeu Fabra) is Associate Professor in the Department of Computer Science at Universidad de Chile, and Associate Researcher with the Millennium Institute for Foundational Research on Data.

Sebastián Valenzuela

Sebastián Valenzuela (PhD, University of Texas at Austin) is Associate Professor in the School of Communications at Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, and Associate Researcher with the Millennium Institute for Foundational Research on Data.

Andrés Cruz

Andrés Cruz (MA, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile) is Instructor of Political Science at Universidad Diego Portales, Chile.

Naim Bro

Naim Bro (PhD, University of Cambridge) is Postdoctoral Fellow at the Millennium Institute for Foundational Research on Data.

Daniel Alcatruz

Daniel Alcatruz (BA, Universidad de Concepción) is Research Assistant at the Millennium Institute for Foundational Research on Data.

Andrea Escobar

Andrea Escobar (BA, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile) is a Data Analyst and Researcher in at Servicio Nacional del Adulto Mayor (SENAMA) and Research Assistant at the Millennium Institute for Foundational Research Data.