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ABSTRACT
This paper addresses the drivers of migration intentions amongst francophone West African university students. We use an original dataset collected from more than 4000 students in Côte d’Ivoire, Niger, and Senegal. Multivariate methods allow us to link the intention to migrate with the characteristics of students, with their opinion regarding mobility as well as with the perceived situation of their country of origin. We analyze intervening factors such as ethnicity, financial resources, past migration history, and social networks, and put the results into perspective with migration theory. Our results show that migration intentions are complex processes: the national context plays a role, but family support and networks are important. Generally, only a minority of students wish to leave and then only temporarily, to improve their human capital upon return.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Notes
1. In the case of Senegal, due to administrative issues, the questionnaire was distributed in the students’ apartments. Those who agreed to answer received a pen as well as a writing pad. The questionnaire was self-administered but students had the opportunity to get help.
2. These differences can be explained by the setting of the distribution and the size of the universities. In Côte d’Ivoire, because of the large size of the campus (54,000 students), the questionnaire was handed out to students entering the campus and they were asked to give it back immediately. In Senegal (5,000 students) the questionnaire was handed out and collected directly in students’ apartments. In Niger (10,000 students) the questionnaire was handed out at entry points to the campus with the opportunity to give it back later.
3. ‘If you had this opportunity, would you like to live abroad in a more or less near future?’ (Si vous en aviez la possibilité, souhaiteriez-vous résider dans un avenir plus ou moins proche à l’étranger ?).
4. ‘Do you have a precise plan to live abroad?’ (Avez-vous un projet précis pour aller vivre à l’étranger?).
5. ‘Did you already take actions in order to move?’ (Avez-vous déjà fait des démarches pour partir?).
6. In order to test the robustness of our results, similar analyses were conducted with other dependent variables: other binary variables or ranked multivariate indicators. Gains in quality of prediction were marginal and the list of significant independent variables remained fairly stable. This supported our choice to simplify the analysis by considering a binary variable.
7. The full specifications of the variables as well as the original formulation of the questions can be found in the research report: https://libra.unine.ch/export/DL/42038.pdf. We did not add or suppress variables with low levels of contribution (stepwise modeling). The justification is that we do not attempt to build a prediction model but to test the role of each variables on migration intentions.
8. Two separate models for men and women were also computed. The results of these models can be accessed here: https://libra.unine.ch/export/DL/42038.pdf. Technically, this allows taking into account possible interaction effects between country characteristics and other variables.
9. An issue of collinearity was detected concerning the material situation of the students, originally rated using three different indicators. We chose to keep one indicator only: satisfaction regarding financial resources.
10. http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/(consulted on June 6th, 2020).
11. Principal component factor analysis with varimax rotation. Factor 1 explains 30% and factor 2 explains 13% of the variance.
12. Two additional models – not presented in the tables – were computed to check the robustness of the results. One does not use factor scores to describe confidence in the future and quality of life but uses original variables, the other does not include the six variables describing the individual attitudes toward studying abroad, as these might interact with other characteristics. The results of these two models did not differ substantially from the main models.
13. We use ‘tendentially’ to point to results that are significant with a p-value between 0.05 and 0.1.
14. For details of these migration theories, see Massey et al. (Citation1993) and Piguet (Citation2018).
Additional information
Funding
Notes on contributors
Etienne Piguet
Etienne Piguet (Phd.) is Professor of Geography at the University of Neuchâtel (Switzerland). He conducts research on migration, refugees and the interplay between environmental change and mobility.
Désiré Nassa
Désiré Nassa (Phd.) is Professor of Geography at the Institute of Tropical Geography of the Félix Houphouët-Boigny University of Cocody-Abidjan (Côte-d’Ivoire). He conducts research on borders, globalization, migration and innovation.
El Hadji Mamadou Ndiaye
Amadou Oumarou (Phd.) is Senior Lecturer in socio-anthropology of development at the Abdou Moumouni University of Niamey (Niger). He conducts research on gender and migration, farmers adaptation to climate change and insecurity in the Sahel region.
Amadou Oumarou
El Hadji Mamadou Ndiaye (Phd.) is Lecturer in geography at University Gaston Berger in Saint-Louis (Senegal). He conducts research on urban issues, mobility and sustainable urban development.
Cheikh Samba Wade
Cheikh Samba Wade (Phd.) is Professor of geography at University Gaston Berger in Saint-Louis (Senegal). He conducts research on urban geography, public space and transportations systems.