Decision-theoretic behavioral analytics: risk management and terrorist intensity

ABSTRACT

The focus of terrorist events on urban centers and mass gathering sites and the intensity in which they have occurred in recent times has greatly enhanced the need to ensure that terrorism risk is managed effectively. Recent attacks have resulted in significant societal harm, particularly in the context of loss of life and injury, economic losses, property damage and the breaking down of societal relations. In light of the terrorist threat, significant challenges exist for counter terrorism practitioners and policy makers with many of these attacks occurring spontaneously, without warning, and with limited intelligence [McIlhatton et al., 2018a. Protecting crowded places from terrorism: An analysis of the current considerations and barriers inhibiting the adoption of counter terrorism protective security measures. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism. doi:10.1080/1057610X.2018.1507311; McIlhatton et al., 2018b. Current considerations of counter terrorism in the risk management profession. Journal of Applied Security Research]. As a consequence, those tasked with managing terrorism risk require innovative and effective tools that can work towards a reduction in impact of these events, as well as a better understanding of terrorist decision objectives, behavioral characteristics, and potential loss exposures under uncertainty. This paper proposes a highly innovative methodological approach to understanding the potential impacts of terrorist actions, thus allowing practitioners and policymakers to manage terrorism risk more effectively and efficiently.

KEYWORDS:

• Terrorism
• risk management
• behavioral analytics
• decision theoretic

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes on contributors

Dr Terry V. Grissom holds a visiting position at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. Dr Grissom has 47 years of professional and academic work. His professional experience has been as a VP of Investment Research for Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, National Research Director for Price Waterhouse, proprietor of Grissom Group, Partner in Real Estate Market Analysts (REMA), an analyst and appraiser for International Appraisal and Research Group Inc. and an Appraiser II for the Georgia Department of Transportation (GDOT). Example of projects include, but are not limited to, damage estimates and recovery forecast periods of properties around the World Trade Center post 9-11, the Macy Bankruptcy, Super fund toxic sites, developer malfeasance and developer life value, and infrastructure funding for developers and cities. Dr Grissom has published over 100 referred articles, co-authored 4 books and chapters in 3 and done numerous technical reports as an associate research economist at the Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University. Dr Grissom received his PhD with distinction in Urban Land Economics, Risk Management and Finance and Civil and Environmental Engineering from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he also received a MS in Investment Analysis. He holds an MBA in Real Estate and Finance from Georgia State University and a BS in Business and Economics from the University of Kentucky, where he also received an assistantship to work on an MS in Agriculture and Land Economics.

Dr David McIlhatton is Head of Urban and Maritime Security Research and Director in the Centre for Trust, Peace and Social Relations at Coventry University, UK.

Dr James R. DeLisle is Associate Professor of Real Estate, and Academic Director of the Lewis White Real Estate Center at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, US.

Professor Mike Hardy is Executive Director of the Centre of Trust, Peace and Social Relations at Coventry University, UK.

Notes

1 The asymptotic pattern produced with Equation 3 was suggested in practice by Mikey Day, a British military and intelligence veteran and current news correspondent, who in discussing interrogation and the use of torture, inferred that the signal value of information declines asymptotically with time. The most relevant data is gained in the short term as opposed to information gained other time as personal relations are developed.