Terrorism as an interactive process: a tool for the assessment of terrorist affiliation degree

ABSTRACT

The present paper proposes an instrument to measure the risk of terrorist conflicts through the concept of affiliation to a terrorist organization. The proposed instrument is called the Tool for the Assessment of Terrorist Affiliation Degree (TATAD) and measures how close the respondents are to a complete affiliation, on a scale of four degrees. Based on the Methodology for the Analysis of Computerised Textual Data, each degree is characterized by specific interactive modalities that differ in the ways they contribute to conflict or to community cohesion. Based on the degree of affiliation, it is possible to anticipate acts of conflict that are coherent with the modality of interaction measured by TATAD. By considering the interactive modalities, and not only the contents linked to terrorism, the process of affiliation is the same independently of the type of terrorist society and its beliefs (ideological, religious, etc.). Therefore, TATAD can be used independently of the specific context and motives of terrorism. By detecting critical modalities of interaction, TATAD can be used to support decision making and plan interventions to promote community cohesion in prisons and migration services, and to evaluate the efficiency of counter-terrorism strategies, policies and projects aimed at promoting social cohesion.

KEYWORDS:

• Radicalization
• terrorist affiliation
• evaluation tool
• language
• M.A.D.I.T
• conflict

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

Data sharing is not applicable to this article as no new data were created or analyzed in this study.

Notes

1 7 January 2015, Paris (France): attack on the editorial desk of the French satirical weekly ’Charlie Hebdo’; 22 March 2016, Brussels (Belgium): explosion of two bombs at Zaventem airport and one at Maelbeek underground station; 19 December 2016, Berlin (Germany): attack on the Christmas market in the district of Charlottenburg; 22 March 2017, London (UK): attack in front of the UK's Westminster Parliament; 12 December 2018, Strasbourg (France): attack on the Christmas market in Strasbourg; 29 November 2019, London (UK): unsuccessful attack near London Bridge.

2 Lloyd, M., & Dean, C. (2015). The development of structured guidelines for assessing risk in extremist offenders. Journal of Threat Assessment and Management, 2(1), 40–52. https://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000035

3 Elaine Pressman, D., & Flockton, J. (2012). Calibrating risk for violent political extremists and terrorists: The VERA 2 structured assessment. The British Journal of Forensic Practice, 14(4), 237–251. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636641211283057

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Gian Piero Turchi

Gian Piero Turchi is Professor of Clinical Psychology and Psychology of Cultural Differences and Deviance Clinic at the F.I.S.P.P.A. Department of the University of Padua; he is also Director of the Master Course Emergency Management in Health and Community field. Expert in research and intervention within the field of Health promotion and emergency management using M.A.D.I.T. methodology: he has worked as a counsellor, psychologist and psychotherapist for individuals and groups, and as a supervisor for public service workers and private psychotherapists.

Alessia Palermo

Alessia Palermo is a psychologist graduated from the School of Social, Work and Communication Psychology at the University of Padua. Since 2016, her academic path has focused on the study of Islamic terrorism, analyzing its origins and development process. These studies have led her to participate in, write and implement European-founded projects on various topics, including terrorism, migration, violence and discrimination. Currently, she is a Project Manager at an Italian NGO working in the area of social innovation, with a specific focus on management of project and realization of services and products in the field of welfare and social cohesion (Anziani e non solo – ANS).

Mathilda Tassinari Rogalin

Mathilda Tassinari Rogalin is a psychologist and is currently a PhD student in Education at the University of Uppsala, Sweden. She has carried out studies regarding the situation of pupils considered in need of special scholastic support and her main interest is directed at health promotion. She is further interested in questions of epistemology and the development of innovative theoretical and methodological approaches.

Guido Pasquale

Guido Pasquale is a psychologist and mediator. In the fields of criminal justice and restorative justice, he provides consultancy and training for public and private organizations, and designs and delivers mediation and restorative interventions with offenders. For the Veneto region he works within the inOltre Service in the field of social emergency management and suicide prevention risk. He is an expert in the application of the MADIT methodology for natural language analysis in the above-mentioned areas of intervention.

Marta Silvia Dalla Riva

Marta Silvia Dalla Riva is a psychologist, a commercial and civil mediator, and a researcher at the University of Padua. She works on the development of the M.A.D.I.T. methodology in the fields of health promotion, textual analysis and litigation management. She has been the leader of a team of mediator in an Italian annual project of promotion of mediation as a tool for increasing efficiency in the administration of justice. She co-led training courses for healthcare workers, focused on users’ interactive management strategies and teamwork.

Luisa Orrù

Luisa Orrù is a psychologist, and PhD student in Social Sciences at the F.I.S.P.P.A. (Philosophy, Sociology, Education and Applied Psychology) Department of the University of Padua. She has specific competencies in development of the methodologies, discourse theory with a focus on Dialogic Science in the fields of health promotion, social sustainability, and communication, with Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning. She is professor of research design, and lecturer of the Master Course “Mediation and Restorative Justice. Methodology and tools for the application in the familiar, penal, community, organizational and commercial fields” at University of Padua. She is also a fellow in the subjects of “Clinical Psychology” and “Psychology of Cultural Differences and Deviance Clinic”. She works as Judiciary-appointend and Party-appointed Technical/Psychological Consultant in legal trials.