The reluctant pretender: China's evolving presence in the Indian Ocean

Abstract

This paper takes stock of China's evolving presence in the Indian Ocean. It posits that despite various traditional and non-traditional threats, the Indian Ocean is not the foremost concern in China's quest for maritime security. As a result, China's efforts to make foray beyond the Strait of Malacca remain limited. Three patterns in its posturing can be distinguished. First, it seeks to deter India – its main counterweight in South Asia – where it is the weakest, that is along the continental border. Second, it explores ways to reduce its reliance on the long maritime lifelines in the Indian Ocean. Third, it is gradually and modestly increasing its presence in a way that can be described as diffuse pervasion. There is thus no reason to be overly alarmed. Yet, important uncertainties remain over China's future intentions and the degree to which problems with lesser powers can prompt it to use military means to defend its interests. Future Chinese naval assertiveness in the region will more likely be the outcome of contingency than strategic provision.

Keywords:

• Indian Ocean
• China
• maritime security
• deterrence
• sea lanes