Climate migration and the politics of causal attribution: a case study in Mongolia

Abstract

Migration is always multi-causal. Ascribing a specific cause to migration, such as through the concept of ‘climate migration’, participates consequently to a political exercise – a play of shade and light where attention is focused on the responsibilities of certain actors, rather than others. This is the case, this article argues, regarding internal migration in Mongolia, whereby, during the last two decades, nomadic or semi-nomadic herders as well as inhabitants from small urban centres come to settle in insalubrious suburbs of the capital, Ulaanbaatar. The Mongolian authorities are keen to highlight the changing environmental conditions that can be traced to climate change: a change in precipitation patterns and an increase in average temperatures contribute to cause large loss of livestock during harsh winters (dzud). Yet, a multitude of other factors concurrently influence the migratory behaviour of Mongolia’s nomads: unregulated and unsustainable pastoral practices, the insufficient provision of basic and support services in the countryside or, more generally, the lack of public support to the agricultural sector. Identifying the concurring causes of migration suggests alternative response measures, and this article argues that Mongolia should urgently rectify its development policies to provide a room for each of its citizens.

Keywords:

• climate change
• migration
• development
• Mongolia

Acknowledgements

The Hans & Tamar Oppenheimer Chair in Public International Law at McGill University provided financial support to the country visit carried out in March and April 2013. A logistic support was also provided by the local office of the International Organization for Migrations in Ulaanbaatar. The Library of the American Centre for Mongolian Studies in Ulaanbaatar permitted the use of precious documentary resources. Finally, about fifty interviewees kindly made themselves available.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1. War and Peace (1869, Louise and Aylmer Maude trans. 1952), book thirteen, chapter 1.

2. On the Notion of Cause. (1912) Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society, 13, 1–26, p. 1.

3. Interview of T. Chimidbaldir, officer in charge of meteorology, National Emergency Management Agency (10 April 2013).

4. Interviews with several migrants in a ger district of Ulaanbaatar (31 March 2013).

5. According to the demographic data by province of the National Statistical Office (2013). These data do not distinguish the impact of internal and international migration from the impact of demographic growth.

6. Constitution of Mongolia (13 January 1992), article 16(18).

7. Interview with T. Munkhbayar, President of the board of directors, United Movement of Mongolian Rivers and Lakes (27 March 2013).

8. ‘Maldives Cabinet makes a Splash’ BBC (17 October 2009).

9. Constitution of Mongolia (13 January 1992), article 6(3).

10. Statistics of the World Bank (2013).

11. Statistics of the World Bank (2013).

12. Interview with a senior officer in the local office of a multilateral development bank in Ulaanbaatar (9 April 2013).

13. Statistics of the National Statistical Office (2013).

14. Interview with D. Sukhgerel, Executive Director, Oyu Tolgoi Watch (8 April 2013).

15. Interview with C. Khashchuluun, former Chairman of National Development and Innovation Committee of Mongolia (15 April 2013).

16. L. Sumati, cited in D. Levin, ‘Wealth Rises in Mongolia, as Does Worry’ New York Times (15 July 2012).

Additional information

Funding

This research was funded by a grant of the Hans & Tamar Oppenheimer Chair in Public International Law at McGill University.