General hypergame analysis within the graph model for conflict resolution

ABSTRACT

To capture decision-makers' (DMs') various kinds of misperceptions in a conflict setting, a methodology is developed to improve hypergame analysis within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution. This technique models and analyses DMs' different levels of perception in a real-life situation. It also handles a DM's misperception about itself as well as misperception about its opponents. A hypergame in graph form is a framework that consists of subjective hypergames, each of which illustrates a given DM's viewpoint of the hypergame situation. The universal sets of options and states for the hypergame, which include all possible perceptual options and states for the conflict, are used to construct each DM's subjective hypergame. To gain worthy strategic insights from the hypergame analysis, the overall hypergame equilibria are classified based on the types of misperceptions and the awareness of DMs into eight classes of resolutions.

KEYWORDS:

• Equilbria
• hypergames
• misperceptions
• graph model for conflict resolution
• perception

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada [RGPIN-2013-4118, RGPIN-2017-04379] and Scholarship from the Government of Saudi Arabia.

Notes on contributors

Yasir M. Aljefri

Yasir M. Aljefri is an Assistant Professor of Industrial Engineering at the University of Jeddah, Dhahban, Saudi Arabia. He received his BSc degree in Industrial Engineering from King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, in 2007, MEng degree in Engineering Management from the University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, in 2012, and PhD degree in Systems Design Engineering from the University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, in October 2017. Dr. Aljefri's research interests include conflict analysis, multiple criteria decision analysis, group decision and negotiation, policy design, social and environmental systems analysis, risk management, project management, and financial analysis. In his doctoral research, Dr. Aljefri focuses on mathematical modeling and analysis of conflict situations having misperception among the engaging decision-makers. His various applications address strategic studies of oil and gas conflicts, climate change dilemma, water conflict, as well as geopolitical disputes.

Keith W. Hipel

Keith W. Hipel is Officer of the Order of Canada; University Professor of Systems Design Engineering at the University of Waterloo; Former President of the Academy of Science within the Royal Society of Canada (RSC); Senior Fellow of the Centre for International Governance Innovation; and Fellow of the Balsillie School of International Affairs. His major research interests are the development of conflict resolution, multiple criteria decision analysis, time series analysis and other decision-making methodologies for addressing complex interdisciplinary system of systems engineering problems lying at the confluence of society, technology and the environment, with applications in water resources management, hydrology, environmental engineering, energy, and sustainable development. Dr. Hipel is the recipient of the Foreign Member designation of the National Academy of Engineering of the United States of America; Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Eminent Scientist Award; Joseph G. Wohl Outstanding Career Award from the IEEE Systems, Man and Cybernetics (SMC) Society; IEEE SMC Norbert Wiener Award; three Honorary Doctorate degrees (France, Hungary, Canada); Miroslaw Romanowski Medal (RSC); Sir John William Dawson Medal (RSC); Ven Te Chow Award from the Environmental and Water Resources Institute, American Society of Civil Engineers; and Jiangsu Friendship Medal from China.

Liping Fang

Liping Fang is Professor of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering at Ryerson University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. He served as Chair of the Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering (2004 to 2012) and Associate Dean, Undergraduate Programs and Student Affairs, Faculty of Engineering and Architectural Science (2012–2017) at Ryerson. He received the BEng degree in Electrical Engineering from Tianjin University, Tianjin, China, in 1982, and the MASc and PhD degrees in Systems Design Engineering from the University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, in 1985 and 1989, respectively. He has actively carried out research and consulting activities in the areas of industrial engineering, engineering management, systems engineering, and decision-making, particularly in interactive decision-making, multiple-criteria decision-making, and decision support systems. He has published three books, two edited books, 71 refereed journal papers, four encyclopedia articles, two yearbook articles, ten articles in edited books, and 85 refereed conference papers. Dr. Fang is the recipient of a number of awards. He is Fellow of the Canadian Academy of Engineering (FCAE), Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (FIEEE), Engineering Institute of Canada (FEIC), and Canadian Society for Mechanical Engineering (FCSME) as well as a registered Professional Engineer in Ontario.