Climate and conservation challenges facing Marakele National Park and their implications for tourism

Abstract

Due to climate change’s effects, protected areas, particularly national parks, face conservation challenges, negatively impacting tourism. Sustainable tourism requires understanding the climate and conservation challenges in national parks and their implications for tourism. Marakele National Park in South Africa faces climatic and conservation challenges. A purposive and snowball sampling strategy was used to select study participants. An in-depth interview was conducted with the employees of South African National Parks, including top managers, scientists, field, section, honorary rangers, conservationists, and hospitality staff. A perception survey involving 871 tourists was conducted along with field observations, archival data, and an analysis of archival data. The study results indicate that rainfall levels in the national park vary greatly from season to season and are declining. A warm climate and high rainfall were also observed, and increased drought episodes. The observed climatic extremes led to several ecological challenges, including bush thickening and encroachment, intense soil erosion, wetland degradation and an increased frequency of wildfires. The environmental challenges impact the park’s aesthetic value, affect tourist comfort and perceptions, and cause employee discomfort. The paper recommends that the park develops anticipatory action plans for the identified climatic and tourist attraction risks.

Keywords:

• climate change
• conservation
• tourism
• soil erosion
• wildfires
• bush encroachment
• Marakele National Park

PUBLIC INTEREST STATEMENT

In the face of climate change’s profound effects, Marakele National Park is crucial for conservation and tourism. Our study, employing in-depth interviews, surveys, and observations, has unveiled a concerning reality: fluctuating rainfall, warming temperatures, and heightened droughts challenge our ecosystem. These shifts foster ecological dilemmas—thickening vegetation, soil erosion, wetland decline, and increased wildfires. As stewards of this natural treasure, we recognize the far-reaching impact on aesthetics, visitor experiences, and employee well-being. In response, we urge the formulation of anticipatory strategies—plans that harmonize with nature, tackle climatic perils, and protect our cherished tourist attractions. This commitment to proactive action will ensure a sustainable future where Marakele’s beauty and biodiversity endure for generations to come.

1. Introduction

Until COVID-19, tourism in protected areas was one of the industry’s fastest-growing segments. At the same time, protected areas worldwide face various challenges that require urgent attention to ensure sustainability (Chikodzi et al., 2022; Dube, 2022). The challenges above prevent conservation areas from conserving the natural resources and heritage they intend to preserve. Climate change and variability are significant challenges facing conservation areas (including national parks) in South Africa and worldwide (Michalak et al., 2022; Rutherford et al., 1999; van Wilgen et al., 2016). Climate change and global warming can potentially wipe out keystone species and biological diversity that are part of national park destinations (Kapuka & Hlásny, 2021; Kilungu et al., 2017; Kupika et al., 2017).

The widespread advent of COVID-19 in 2020 and the consequent economic meltdown worsened management and conservation challenges faced by national parks and other protected areas, particularly in Africa. On the African continent, most of the funding for conservation is mainly dependent on tourism revenue (Bhammar et al., 2021; Ndlovu et al., 2021). To this end, understanding the current and future threats to national parks is critical to many conservation and tourism stakeholders in light of the disruptive impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Protected areas play a pivotal role in upholding global biodiversity conservation efforts and aligning with Sustainable Development Goals (Mabibibi et al., 2021). However, the efficacy of these protected areas, such as Marakele National Park, is jeopardised by the escalating impacts of climate change and related conservation challenges (Dube et al., 2023; Hamblin, 2022; Minteer & Collins, 2010). The far-reaching consequences of climate change have emerged as a foremost driver of vulnerability in protected areas worldwide. The intricate web of interactions between shifting climatic patterns and fragile ecosystems underscores the need for comprehensive research to inform adaptive management strategies (Bates et al., 2019; Wilson et al., 2020). Despite a general understanding of the global climate and conservation issues confronting protected areas, there remains a profound scarcity of region-specific insights in the African context, including Marakele National Park. Kapuka and Hlásny (2021) highlighted that the significance of coordinated research efforts is underscored to address these critical data limitations.

Marakele National Park’s allure lies in its remarkable biodiversity, including charismatic megafauna, often called the “Big Five.” Nevertheless, the potential disruptions caused by climate change to these ecosystems could detrimentally affect the park’s ability to sustain tourism and safeguard biodiversity. Considering the intricate interplay between climate change, conservation challenges, and their implications for biodiversity preservation and SDG achievement, urgent attention must be directed toward Marakele National Park’s unique predicament. Coordinated research endeavours, strategic data collection initiatives, and community engagement efforts are integral to devising sustainable solutions that mitigate the impacts of climate change, ensuring the park’s ecological integrity, and supporting its role in advancing the broader SDGs agenda.

2. Literature review

Recent studies have shown that climate and conservation challenges are increasing in most protected areas (including national parks) worldwide and across Africa. According to Belote et al. (2018), a study in the USA’s parks revealed certain species’ sensitivity to climate change. One of the critical threats to species in some of the USA’s national parks has been wildfire. Wildfires have been observed to cause health problems, visibility concerns and increasing species vulnerability in some national parks (Ford et al., 2018). Fire occurrence in national parks has always been controversial, given its ecological role in some ecosystems and biomes. While some biomes, like Fynbos (Cowling & Hoffman, 2021) and the Savanna biomes (Bernardino et al., 2022; Corey et al., 2020; Scholtz et al., 2022), require fire for their optimum performance, the increased fire frequency and intensity are of concern to conservation practitioners. Increased fire frequency and intensity can trigger ecosystem disturbances in national parks and protected areas worldwide, which could equally affect the ecosystem services of some parks. The misapplication of fire has been responsible for increased woody species (Scholtz et al., 2022) in some African ecosystems.

The increased fire incidences in some protected areas have been attributed to global warming resulting in the changing climate and other related challenges. According to Sibitane et al. (2022), global warming is causing untold suffering for tourism employees and tourists and, in some cases, causing imbalances in ecosystems’ animal and bird populations. In China, global warming is likely to cause a shift in species distribution to higher altitudes of 90 m (Li et al., 2021). Zahoor et al. (2021) also reported that global warming was responsible for a change in animal distribution within national parks. An increase in sea surface temperature has also been raised concerning marine protected areas due to its adverse impact on corals and the associated marine tourism (Abe et al., 2021; Dube, 2022). Such developments have a negative bearing on tourist activities.

Extreme droughts have significantly contributed to the increase in species extinction in some national parks (Büchling & Maroun, 2021; Dube & Nhamo, 2020). One of the species tourists seek, the rhinoceros, is particularly susceptible to drought shocks (le Roex & Ferreira, 2021). This adds another layer of risks facing these species, already hard hit by the effects of poaching. Creeping events like droughts degrade the natural resource base, affecting nature-based tourism in national parks (Mpolokang et al., 2022). Coldrey et al. (2022) placed Marakele National Park at position 8 out of the 19 national parks managed by SANParks in their attempt to develop a model for protected areas’ vulnerability to climate change and maladaptation. This study seeks to explore some of the conservation and climate change vulnerabilities of the Marakele National Park to improve understanding of adaptation and resilience building.

Increased fire incidence is challenging as it causes and triggers soil erosion (Dube, 2022). A combination of fire that clears vegetation and leaves the earth bare and high rainfall intensity is a major driver of erosion in national parks (Chapungu et al., 2023) in and around South Africa. Apart from conservation challenges related to climate change (Dube et al., 2023), national parks also face several challenges that must be addressed to ensure sustainability. One of the biggest conservation challenges has been poaching, often triggered by the demand for ivory, rhino horns and other endangered species (Witter & Satterfield, 2019). Poaching threatens several species and biodiversity and can upset the state and proper functioning of the ecosystem (Kendon et al., 2022; Loveridge et al., 2020).

Humans often trigger human-wild conflict in wildlife sanctuaries and territories, a severe conservation challenge facing protected areas worldwide (Mekonen, 2020). Of course, there is no denying that climate change has worsened the human-wildlife conflict (Fisher et al., 2020; König et al., 2020), which has long been driven by the growth in human population, which has led to expansion that resulted in human encroachment into wildlife areas (Fisher et al., 2020). Therefore, considerable resource investment has been made to address some of these challenges to ensure sustainability.

Another challenge that parks had to deal with was the challenge of invasive species. Invasive species have caused serious headaches for aquatic and terrestrial ecology. Climate change has also worsened the challenge of alien species in protected areas (Karki et al., 2022; Yaqoob et al., 2022). Various ways of dealing with alien species have been adopted in different areas to protect biodiversity. For example, the public works project in South Africa has been widely adopted to deal with alien species (Sieben et al., 2022). In other setups, artificial and nature-based solutions have been adopted to deal with the problem of alien invasive species (Nijman et al., 2022).

3. Methodology

Marakele National Park is one of the 19 active national parks in South Africa that the South African National Parks (SANParks) manage. In total, South Africa has 19 active national parks. Marakele is one of three national parks located in Limpopo Province. It is in the watershed region and Waterberg Mountains and is at the centre of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)’s Waterberg Bioreserve. The area has numerous archaeological objects and species on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN’s) orange and red data list. Marakele National Park is 63 926 ha and has some unique wetlands and high-altitude areas, with the highest point being 2088.2 metres above sea level (South African National Parks, 2014). Before the park was declared, some lands were used for agricultural purposes. The national park also has several sensitive areas. Figure 1 shows the map of the national park under study.

Figure 1. Map of the study area: adapted from South African national parks.

Marakele National Park shares its borders with several private game reserves, assisting it in its quest for expansion. The national park, which lies in a UNESCO Biosphere, is located near the mining community of Thabazimbi. The area used to have a robust mining and manufacturing community. However, given that some mining and manufacturing activities were either closed or scaled down, there are high unemployment and poverty levels. Tourism from the national park and other private game reserves offers locals income and employment opportunities.

4. Primary data collection techniques

The study utilised multiple data sources to answer the research question: to what extent is the Marakele National Park of South Africa vulnerable to climate change and variability, and how can an improved understanding of the situation assist in enhancing tourism and adaptation and resilience building? Amongst others, the study used findings from 15 interviews with South African National Parks employees who have worked and are working at Marakele National Park, field observations, archival data and a perception survey with 871 tourists. SANParks employees who formed part of the study comprised scientists, field, section and honorary rangers, conservationists, hospitality employees and the park’s top management.

Purposive and snowball sampling techniques were adopted to identify interview respondents. The interviews took place at Marakele National Park’s main offices. The in-depth interviews took, on average, an hour and were conducted between 2020 and 2022. Participation was through voluntary informed consent. The interviews made use of an interview guide that had about 15 questions that were aimed at understanding the climate, tourism and conservation issues that affect Marakele National Park. Some questions were aimed at examining the climatic and weather trends in the park, how weather and climate shape tourism in the park, some of the challenges they have been experiencing with weather events from a tourism and management perspectives, efforts being taken to address some of the climate-related challenges emerging from the park due to observed and perceived impacts of climate change. The study only engaged with staff who had worked in Marakele for more than five years, as they were considered to have some knowledge of the park. So, respondents had worked in the park for a period ranging between 5 and 17 years in the park.

A general tourist survey was conducted for all 19 active national parks in the country of which Marakele is part. The researchers self-administered the online tool at strategic points in the park, where tourists were randomly approached and requested to complete the survey. The questionnaire comprised open and mainly closed questions that interrogated tourists’ observations concerning the perceived impact of climate change on the national park, the national park’s infrastructure, tourism experience, tourism activities, and how climate can potentially threaten tourism experience and potential mitigation and adaptation strategies that SANParks can employ to deal with climate change. The survey invited 1785 respondents. Of those, 1123 responded, 871 completed the survey, and 252 were dropouts. The respondents were mainly domestic tourists (51,31%), given that the survey was conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic-induced travel restrictions. Male respondents comprised 51%, and the remainder were females. Answering the questionnaire took between 10 and 15 minutes.

Field observations were conducted to get a detailed assessment and understanding of the park. It was also done to verify some of the assessments of tourists and park managers, such as observing evidence for soil erosion, degraded areas, encroached areas, and a view of wetlands and their state, amongst others.

5. Archival data material

Climate data were obtained from Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER). The POWER project uses National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) meteorological data. The data set from POWER comprises long-term averaged climatological data. The data set is based on satellite estimates, validated by White et al. (2011), and used by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The need for long-term data for the park necessitated POWER data. A single-point approach was used to gather climatological data obtained at Latitude −24.3082 and Longitude 27.5761. The location Elevation from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2): Average for 0.5 × 0.625-degree lat/lon region = 1111.3 meters were used to obtain data. The data was from 1981 to 2021, equating to 40 years of continuous climate data. The high resolution was downloaded in CSV files and processed using Microsoft Excel ToolPak, which was used to produce figures and conduct statistical analysis. Descriptive and quantitative statistics were used to analyse the findings. XLSTAT was used to conduct a significance test using the Mann-Kendall Trend Analysis function. This functionality was used to test the significance of a change in climatic variables. The usage of this tool in climate and hydrological studies is a long-established tradition (Hamed, 2009). This study used the Mann-Kendall Trend Test to determine whether a time series has a monotonic upward or downward trend.

Data from interviews and questionnaire surveys were analysed using various quantitative and qualitative analysis tools. Interview data were transcribed from audio using Otter application version 3.16.0.809. To deal with the errors associated with using AI-based equipment, the interviewer made corrections to ensure the accuracy of the transcriptions. Data cleaning followed, and coding followed themes developed using key research questions. The thematic analysis allowed the researcher to develop meanings from the research findings. Data from the questionnaire survey was analysed using inbuilt QuestionPro analytical functions, allowing instant analysis upon data entry. The presentation of data and discussion of the results will now be done in the next section.

6. Results and discussion

The study found that the average amount of rainfall received in Marakele National Park over 40 years between 1981 and 2021 is highly variable. The average rainfall over the study period was about 481 mm (Figure 1). In the 40 years, at least 19 of those years, rain failed to reach the average expected rainfall. This scenario can be loosely considered to have been years of drought. Most scholars agree that if rainfall persistently falls below the expected average rainfall, this is generally considered a drought phenomenon (Balint et al., 2013; Carroll et al., 2021; Panu & Sharma, 2002). The most severe drought was recorded in 2015, when rainfall decreased by more than 50% of the expected amount. The park received about 211 mm of rainfall that year against an average amount of about 481 mm. The second most severe drought was in 2018. The areas seem to have a drought period that persists for about three years before giving a break starting with 1983–1985, 1992–1994, and 2001–2004.

The wettest period in the park is largely before 2000. The highest amount of rainfall was received in 1996 (about 749 mm), 1986 (about 744 mm), and 1987 (about 680 mm). The negative trendline shows that the average rainfall amount has declined over the years, indicating the increased frequency and intensity of droughts in the area. The drought episodes often coincide with the El Niño events. However, not all El Niño events (dark and light red bars Figure 2) have been characterised by droughts, as some years above normal rainfall has been recorded during the El Niño episodes (dark red bars).

Figure 2. Annual average rainfall for Marakele National Park 1981–2021.

Rainfall events are critical in shaping the park’s vegetation in the Savanna biome and influencing the grass bush regime (Blaser et al., 2013; Pletcher et al., 2022; Smit et al., 2010). The study found that given the increasing episodes of drought in the park and the legacy of poor farming that occurred before the park was established, the park is experiencing some high levels of bush encroachment in certain sections. A response from one ranger who granted an interview reviewed that:

“Bush encroachment is a serious challenge in the park, and it affects animals, most of which are grazers and adversely impacts the game viewing experience by tourists. It is particularly challenging to see an animal that might not be very far away. Consequently, tourists cannot enjoy game drives as they would”.

This assertion by the park ranger confirms earlier findings by Coldrey (2018), who estimated that bush encroachment would have a negative impact on the tourism industry in Marakele National Park. The impact of bush encroachment on the grass stratum in the Marakele area has also been acknowledged by Smit and Pienaar (2020), who noted that some game farmers in the area were resorting to thinning as a measure of trying to control the challenge of bush encroachment and promote gross grass growth. The study showed that the park was equally invested through the public works project to try and alleviate bush encroachment through a thinning project. Regardless of the presence of large herbivores such as elephants, bush encroachment threatens the park’s sustainability and could reduce the grazing area of the park and result in increased grazing pressure in sections of the park. Van Staden et al. (2021) observed that bush encroachment in the area is a possibility for a reduction in species diversity which could threaten the ecosystem in Marakele. This confirms tourists’ fears over a possible decline in animal and bird populations due to climate change in the park (Figure 2).

Fieldwork revealed that increased grazing pressure has an adverse impact as the park has several sensitive areas, which are highly vulnerable to erosion and other land degradation processes. This was also confirmed by Chapungu et al. (2023), who found a considerable portion to have various levels of erosion hazard vulnerability. This is explained by the fact that the park lies at high altitudes and has some sections with rugged terrain, steep slopes, and shallow soils highly susceptible to erosion. Among other things, 10% of tourists (Figure 3) indicated that they were concerned about the rate of soil erosion and its likelihood of increasing due to climate change.

Figure 3. Tourists’ perceptions of the impact of climate change on Marakele National Park (n=175).

Field observations revealed that the area is battling erosion challenges, especially on high slopes along the roads and wetlands previously damaged by wildfires. The officials in the park indicated that often after the rains, the other parts of the park become impassable due to erosion that damages the road. This makes it challenging for tourists to navigate the park, particularly those with small vehicles that are considered environmentally friendly. Daily rainfall scrutiny reveals that the area is prone to intense and heavy rainfall episodes (Figure 4). According to Dyson (2009), very heavy rainfall is when a rainfall event surpasses 25 mm in a single event. There are several days where heavy to severe rainfall events were experienced in the park, as shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4. Daily rainfall 1981–2021.

Field observations show that extreme rainfall triggers heavy soil erosion processes. In Marakele, some portions of the park struggle with what can be considered gully erosion. Figure 5 shows the extent and severity of soil erosion in Marakele National Park, which usually is triggered by heavy rainfall and localised flooding in some parts of the park.

Figure 5. Soil erosion in central parts of Marakele National Park.

According to observation and interview findings with park officials, efforts to restore this park section have had little success. The park conservationist noted that several person-days had been spent to try and reclaim highly eroded sections of the park, which cost millions of Rand. However, this has not been fully successful, with success rates being rated to be between 50 and 70%, depending on whom you talk to. Evidence from interviews revealed that the soil reclamation project is quite expensive, with the costs ranging from US $88,000 per year to about US $ 120,000 per year in running costs alone. Erosion threatens this park’s scenic beauty, rangelands, road infrastructure and other critical infrastructure. This claim is also validated by findings by Chapungu et al. (2023). Based on interview data, Figure 6 summarises the triggers of soil erosion in Marakele National Park.

Figure 6. Causes of soil erosion in Marakele National Park.

Evidence provided by interviewees indicated that apart from heavy rainfall, persistent droughts threaten the health of wetland ecosystems in the park. The Matlabas wetlands are a crucial part of Marakele National Parks. Together with other water bodies and wetlands in the park, they support several bird and animal species. The wetland forms part of the Waterberg perennial river system, as acknowledged by Nthangeni (2021). In the study by Nthangeni (2021), there was a preliminary observation that the wetlands are draining (drying) due to droughts and the feedback loop they produce with wildfires and land degradation in the park. This could severely affect the river systems that have their source in the wetlands and threaten aquatic life and other animals’ capacity to find water nearby. Wetland vegetation changes have also been observed. Vegetation that normally does not grow on wetlands has been seen encroaching into the wetland as a sign of wetland stress.

Park management noted that the drying up of the wetlands also challenged the park’s management as fires were now encroaching into the wetlands. They also noted that given the amount of peatland that this wetland has been building up for years, the peatland wildfires are difficult to suppress and can potentially release locked-in carbon and methane, which can compound the impacts of climate change. Previous studies have already established the link between droughts fires and wetlands, which points to adverse impacts on wetlands (Thompson et al., 2019). Droughts have resulted in fuel load drying, facilitating wildfire occurrence (Abram et al., 2021). These fires are likely to be more intense and frequent in the park, which is highly vulnerable to natural fires caused by lightning in early summer due to the presence of iron-rich rock mountains (Thabazimbi) surrounding the park. Fires pose a further risk to flora and fauna in the park and other critical infrastructure. One respondent from the management noted that:

fires in the park were increasing in intensity with time, constantly raising the need for a standby fire fighting team.

The occurrence and vigour of wildfires are also likely to be encouraged by an observed trend of increasing temperatures in the park (Figures 7 and 8). The maximum average temperature in the park increased by about 1°C between 1981 and 2021. The average maximum temperature in Marakele currently stands at about 39.2°C. The field observations noted tree mortality in certain park sections dying from fire.

Figure 7. Annual average maximum temperature in Marakele National Park.

Figure 8. Temperature deviation from the mean in Marakele National Park.

Observed increases in temperature are of equal concern to the park employees and tourists alike. From a park management view, an increase in temperature is challenging from an operational perspective, particularly concerning outdoor workers who have to battle the intense heat during the summer months. Another respondent from the management noted that:

… it sometimes does become unbearably hot, which poses a challenge, particularly to field rangers who have to patrol the park on foot. These patrols must be done to protect the animals in the park as the park has rhinoceros that poachers demand…

Interviews also revealed that fieldworkers comprising expanded public work employees had challenges working in the heat. On the other hand, even those with offices complained of heat-related discomfort. The heat also directly impacted tourism from a game-viewing perspective. Game viewing is one of the key activities in Marakele National Park. One respondent from the tourism personnel working in the park noted that:

When it becomes very hot, animals cease to become active and hide underneath the trees. This makes it difficult to get good sightings and ultimately affects the game viewing experience for tourists.

Studies elsewhere in South Africa have pointed out the challenge of heat on employees and game-viewing experience (Sibitane et al., 2022). The increase in temperature is, therefore, a concern for tourism stakeholders. There is also a concern over the impact of increasing temperatures on birds and animals, which might not be able to cope with the rising temperatures due to global warming. Fears have been raised in Southern Africa over the impact of rising temperatures on bird mortality (McKechnie et al., 2021; O’Connor et al., 2017). This is a matter the park might need to pay serious attention to monitoring in the future. Tourists are already worried about the impacts of climate change and bird populations in the park, as seen earlier.

Evidence from the interviews revealed that increased temperature and complaints from tourists had forced the park to purchase air-conditioners for some accommodation units. This came at a cost, as the park has seen increased energy usage. The tourism manager noted that:

Due to extremely high temperatures during summer, some tourists have been terminating their stay prematurely to go and stay with our competitors with cooling facilities such as swimming pools. The park currently doesn’t have swimming facilities; consequently, we are losing money. As a remedy in the new park management, we have requested two swimming pools, one for day visitors and another for internal guests.

Due to high temperatures, camping is normally busier during the winter months, especially June and July, in the park, as visitors avoid camping during the summer months when temperatures peak. December is, however, an exception possible due to the combined effect of Christmas and school holidays.

Animal and bird populations in the park are already threatened by climate change-induced droughts. In Kruger National Park, also in the Savanna biome, a decline in birth rates and an increase in natural mortality were observed in recent droughts (Dube & Nhamo, 2020; Ferreira et al., 2019). The park manager for Marakele National Park indicated during the interview that heat, coupled with droughts, had resulted in the deaths of some animal species, such as zebras and impalas, in areas surrounding the water points. The manager also noted that aridity posed challenges for the gestation periods, which were now becoming longer due to the delays in the onset of the rain season, which was usually starting in early October but has now shifted to the end of November (Figure 9a). Despite the increase of rainfall in December and all the other summer months, the total rainfall amounts have been in decline (9b), including March, showing that there hasn’t been an extension of the summer period in the park. The changes to rainfall patterns were confirmed by climate data, which revealed that there is a decline in rainfall in October and November which could be an indicator of the shift in rainfall pattern, with an increase in rainfall in December marking the change in rainfall season to early December instead of October November as previously known.

Figure 9. Rainfall patterns for Marakele from October to March.

The park manager noted that rainfall normally triggers births in most animals, and when this is delayed, it means that animals have to carry young ones for longer. Some animals have died in the process of giving birth, calling for more research into the impact of delayed rainfall on gestation and birthrates for animals.

Droughts were also blamed for a decline in groundwater tables. During the height of the drought that ended in 2018, at least two boreholes ceased to provide water due to a declining water table. This triggered the park management to source water loggers to monitor the underground water tables and usage. Given that the park uses watering holes to feed animals, water security is a real threat to the park’s sustainability.

7. Conclusion and recommendations

The paper revealed that rainfall in the national park is highly variable and fluctuates from season to season, and there are hardly consecutive seasons of similar rain. However, there has been a bias towards declining seasonal totals over the past 40 years. The frequency of high-intensity rainfall has also been shown to be high in the park, with significant episodes of such rain observed each season. The declining trend in rainfall amounts has been observed to occur over time with the increased frequency of droughts in the park. The park is generally hot, which has also observed an increase in average maximum temperatures over the past 40 years.

The changing climatic patterns have led to ecological challenges in the park, including bush encroachment, which can also be attributed to previous land disturbances. Bush encroachment has led to grazing pressure in the park and further land degradation in areas that still have grasslands. The rainfall pattern and the park’s topography make some sections susceptible to high soil erosion. This has reduced the aesthetic value of the landscape and also diminishes the capacity of rangeland ecosystems to provide ecosystem services.

Damage to sensitive ecosystems like wetlands has also been recorded in the park due to droughts, wildfires and land degradation. Droughts have also led to a decline in average groundwater levels. This has led to the failure of key boreholes during the dry seasons and temporary water shortages in the park.

All the observed climate-induced ecological changes seriously impact tourism and visitor experiences in the park. These changes bring discomfort to park employees and contractors, visitors, animals in the park, and the optimum functionality of the rangeland ecosystem. Hence, it can be concluded that climate imposes conservation challenges in Marakele National Park. The chain of effects significantly impacts the park’s aesthetic appeal, likely impacting the number of tourists visiting the park.

In light of the findings, it is recommended that the park develops anticipatory action plans for the identified climatic risks rather than being reactive to the impacts of such. The park’s carrying capacity needs to be closely monitored to avoid further damage to some sections of the park that are already degraded. There is a need for cooling facilities in the parks, especially swimming pools, for both day and overnight visitors. This will provide relief to the tourists during peak temperatures. Degraded park wetlands must be rehabilitated, and effective fire prevention and suppression techniques must be adopted.

The study underscores the need for preemptive action plans proactively addressing climate-related risks and challenges. These strategies could encompass managing ecological shifts, enhancing visitor experiences, and safeguarding employee welfare.

The study provides a comprehensive panorama of the intricate ties between climate change, conservation dynamics, and tourism within Marakele National Park. The amalgamation of diverse research techniques provides a profound comprehension of the multifaceted impacts, culminating in actionable recommendations to preserve the park’s ecological equilibrium and tourism allure amid a changing landscape.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Supplementary data

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2023.2282705

Additional information

Funding

The work was supported by the Exxaro Chair Subvention Funds.

Notes on contributors

Kaitano Dube

Kaitano Dube is an Associate Professor of Tourism Geography and Tourism at Vaal University of Technology. He serves on several international journal editorial boards, including Tourism Geographies and Cogent Social Sciences, where he serves as an editorial board member and an Associate Editor, respectively. He boasts of 9 published books edited and co-authored. He is also a visiting Professor at Emirates Aviation University, Dubai, UAE. He has a strong publication record in Q1 and Q2. International peer-reviewed journal. Currently, a Masters in Business Leadership student Kaitano Dube is an Acting Faculty of Human Science Research and Innovation Professor. His research interest is in tourism climate change, aviation and sustainability

David Chikodzi

Prof David Chikodzi is a postdoctoral research fellow in the Exxaro Chair for Climate and Sustainability Transitions, Institute for Corporate Citizenship, UNISA.

Godwell Nhamo

Prof Godwell Nhamo is a Full Professor and Chief Researcher under the Exxaro Chair in Climate and Sustainability Transitions at the University of South Africa. He is a National Research Foundation C1-rated researcher undertaking research in the fields of Tourism, Climate Change and Sustainable Development.

Lazarus Chapungu

Dr. Lazarus Chapungu is a postdoctoral research fellow in the Exxaro Chair for Climate and Sustainability Transitions, Institute for Corporate Citizenship, UNISA. He served in the IPCC’s AR6 working group III as a contributing author, chapter scientist and expert reviewer.