Economic recovery and growth plan, economic sustainability plan and national development plan (2021-2025): The Nigerian experience under President Muhammadu Buhari

Abstract

Economic policies are drivers of development. The President Muhammadu Buhari-led administration in Nigeria (2015–2023) recognized that the economy is likely to remain on a path of steady and steep decline if nothing is done to change the trajectory of declining economic growth. This concern led to the initiation of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan. The objective of the paper is to examine the experience of the Nigerian economy with the plan. This is desk research. Data are obtained from secondary sources and analyzed through content analysis. It leverages extant literature and the publication of the National Bureau of Statistics (2017), Budget Office of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (2020), and Nigeria Economic and Sustainability Plan (2020) to discuss the framework and implementation of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), Economic Sustainability Plan and the National Development Plan, in Nigeria. The results of the content analysis show that certain affect the effective implementation of the economic plan. The challenges include a lack of policy continuity, weak institutions and corporate governance, and inadequate funding of policy goals, among other things. By implication, the contributions of the policies to national development have not been significant. The paper advocates the need for the present administration to support the goals of the National Development Plan, by funding the policy goals and strengthening the administrative framework of the bureaucracy for effective performance and sustainability.

Keywords:

• economic Recovery and Growth Plan
• economic Sustainability Plan
• National Development Plan

Public interest statement

This study examines the President Muhammadu Buhari-led administration in Nigeria (2015-2023) economic policies, which were designed to revive, develop, and sustain the Nigerian economy. The policies examined are the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), the Economic Sustainability Plan, and the National Development Plan, in Nigeria. The result of the study has shown that several factors may affect the effective implementation of the policies. The are lack of policy continuity, weak institutions and corporate governance, and inadequate funding of policy goals, among other things. The paper attempts to advise the government on the need to support the goals of the National Development Plan, by funding the policy goals and strengthening the administrative framework of the bureaucracy for effective performance and sustainability. Discussions in the study provide enlightenment to the public-on-public policy process in Nigeria.

1. Introduction

Economic policies are strategic components of national development. Over the years, Nigeria has been faced with several development challenges (Anyanwu, 2009). The most recent is economic recession, accession by a “significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in a real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), real income, employment, industrial products, and wholesale-retail sales”. The current administration recognizes that the economy is likely to remain on a path of steady and steep decline if nothing is done to change the trajectory; therefore, the need for sustained inclusive growth. It became necessary to develop enabling policies to address the challenges and to drive structural economic transformation with an emphasis on improving both public and private sectors’ efficiency. This concern gave rise to the emergence of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), thereafter, Economic Sustainability Plan (ESP), and later the National Development Plan (NDP).

The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), a Medium-Term Plan for 2017–2020, builds on the Social Investment Programme (SIP) and has been developed to restore economic growth while leveraging the ingenuity and resilience of the Nigerian people, the nation’s most priceless assets. Consistent with the aspirations of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the ERGP initiatives address three dimensions of economic, social, and environmental sustainability issues. It is the structural changes and economic hardship occasioned by the economic recession that informed ERGP in Nigeria. Recession refers to a slowdown in the economic growth of a country (Ministry of Budget and National Planning, 2017). Zoaka (2018) explained that the economic recession being witnessed by Nigeria in recent times stems from the turmoil in global commodity markets, witnessed in the second half of 2014 which brought their full weight to bear on the Nigerian economy in 2015. Oil prices fell 66.8% from $114/barrel recorded in June 2014 to $38.0 by December 2015. Prices fell even further in 2016, to $32.6 as of 3 February 2016. Beyond commodity markets, recent developments in the global economy created a trifecta of headwinds that the nation must contend with (National Bureau of Statistics, 2017). Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (2017) went further to amplify the cause of this trend by affirming that the return of Iran to the global economy implies substantially larger crude oil supplies are to hit the global market in the near term, and thus the current consensus that oil prices are likely to remain “lower of longer”. The issue of lower commodity prices has been further compounded by the United States Federal Reserve (FED) raising key interest rates, after several years of a very accommodative monetary policy because of the global recession which began circa 2008 (Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning, 2021).

In December 2015, the FED raised the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter-point. Furthermore, the economy of the Euro Area, a key importer of Nigerian exports is still on the mend. According to recent statistics from the European Commission the Euro Area is expected to grow by 2.0% in 2016, up from 1.9% in 2015. Accordingly, the government used the 2016 budget as an opportunity to reset and redirect the macroeconomic dynamics of the country. The attempt to consolidate expenditure using the Treasury Single Account to plug leakages (even if this is only at the federal level) is a welcome first step. It was expected that the proposed 1.6 trillion which was invested in capital projects and other initiatives in Power, Works, and Housing was likely to bode well for the economy (National Bureau of Statistics, 2017). In addition, the establishment of the Efficiency Unit to identify and surgically eliminate inefficiencies without hampering productivity is also another development (Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning, 2021).

Due to the health and economic emergencies caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Economic Sustainability Committee was established on 30 March 2020. The outcome of the Committee’s report led to the establishment of the Economic Sustainability Plan (ESP). ESP seeks to foster new ways of working, producing, learning, and managing public health and safety in the years to come. This includes building resilience across critical sectors, including aviation, education, healthcare, internal security, mining, water, and sanitation (Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic and Sustainability Plan, 2020). The Budget Office of the Federal Republic of Nigeria disclosed that Nigeria’s Economic Sustainability Plan includes a commitment from the federal government to deliver and maintain 5 million new solar connections under a “solar power strategy”. The plan also includes a cut of USD in annual fuel subsidies. Expects admits that the plan has made significant contributions to national economic development (Anam & Antai, 2018; Zoaka, 2018). However, they further admit that much is still desired.

To build a successive plan, for economic sustainability, the Federal Government established the National Development Plan (NDP) (2021–2025). NDP is a deliberate economic plan designed for inclusiveness, participation, and citizen engagement to ensure no one is left behind. The Plan is a successor to the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), 2017–2020, which elapsed in December 2020. The vision of the NDP, 2021–2025 is consistent with the pursuit of socio-economic transformation of our country as envisioned in the long-term aspiration of Nigeria, encapsulated in the Nigeria Agenda 2050. The Plan also builds on the achievements and lessons learned during the implementation of the ERGP (Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning, 2021). It is important to examine the outlook and implementation of these policies, to develop a sustainable framework for the future.

There are looming concerns about the prospects of the success of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), a Medium-Term Plan, and the future of the National Development Plan. This concern is based on the experiences of poor policy implementations in Nigeria. Nigeria has had good policies targeted at economic development. The problem has essentially been effective execution and continuity. Agbazuere (2020) disclosed that “successive governments abandon inherited public policies and initiate theirs that their successors equally abandon, thus leaving a trail of abandoned policies and their relevant projects”. He added that “there is a big disconnect between the policymakers and those for whom the policies are made, resulting in lack of ownership and acceptance of the policies by the people. The result is a near directionless growth” (Agbazuere, 2020).

Nike (2016) stated that “most government policies/reforms in Nigeria have failed to achieve the desired objectives because of either lopsided implementation or total failure to give effect to the motive of the policy or reform”. He took inference to public service monetization reforms in the country and maintained that “Monetization seems to be heading the same way as up till now there is nothing serious to show that monetization is working as expected. Despite the policy, the costs of maintaining the public service continued to escalate while the avenue for corruption, through under appropriation of benefits, gained ascendancy”. On the state of public policies and poverty reduction in Nigeria, Aminu and Onimisi (2014) decried the failing state of policy implementation in the country since independence. They argued that despite policies and programmes by successive governments, poverty is on the increase. They blamed this on the failure of governance, which results in weak and corrupt institutions as well as ineffective policy implementation.

In addition, Agbazuere (2020) surveyed to examine other factors that negatively affect the public policy process in Nigeria. He identified that “political rascality, ethnicity, lack of need assessments, corruption, too many points of agenda, inability to properly identify problems, lack of continuity, lack of political will, inadequate resources, white elephant or unrealistic policy goals, among many others”, are some of the factors militating against effective policy making and execution in Nigeria. There is extant literature on the challenges of public policy implementation in Nigeria as captured above. Most of the literature focuses on post-reviews and evaluations of policy outcomes. This gap in literature motivates us to examine the outcome of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, which was a short-term plan (2017–2020), leveraging the shortcomings to examine the framework for the National Development Plan (2021–2025), which is ongoing. The study aims to examine the challenges and prospects for effective policy implementation and actualization of the goals of the National Development Plan (2021–2025) in Nigeria. The significance of the study is strengthened by its contributions to the development agenda of the present administration in Nigeria. For the present administration, the National Development Plan is a continuity agenda that started before its inauguration. If supported with institutional structures, the policy is likely to attain its development agenda.

The paper aims to examine the suitability and prospects of the economic policies of President Muhammadu Buhari. Specifically, it examines the structural outlook and implementation strategies of,

1. Economic Recovery and Growth Plan

2. Economic Sustainability Plan

3. National Development Plan (2021-2025).

4. Challenges and prospects of the above policies for the development of the Nigerian economy.

2. Literature

2.1. Theoretical literature

The paper leverages the Progressive Utilization Theory by Rajan (1962). The theory states that the aim of “public policy and its implementation is meant to solve a perceived problem for both the present and future benefit to the citizens, and this can be achieved not only by how lofty and beautiful such policy is but by the determination of the implementation bureaucracy in tailoring such policy to give the desired goals and objectives through strategies and collaboration of the beneficiaries” (Elem, 2016). The thesis of the theory justifies the objective of economic and development policies, as viable strategies for addressing the challenges of development in Nigeria. In addition, Maheshvarananda (2003) stated that the theory “optimizes the use of socio-economic, industrial and human resources based on cooperative coordination and a wide basis ranging from local communities to large regions and nations and between the people of diverse geographical areas”. He states that the “theory seeks the welfare and happiness of all, stressing that it is not concerned only with economic but encompasses the whole of individual and collective existence, educational, social, political, and mental well-being of the citizens. It analyzes the political forces that shaped the development of the economy which was described as inhumanity” (Maheshvarananda, 2003).

The Progressive Utilization Theory captures the essence of this study, as it stresses the significance of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), a Medium-Term Plan, and the National Development Plan, a long-term plan, as viable strategies for achieving the goals of economic development in Nigeria. The study sees the policies as strategies for economic coordination, which will provide necessary infrastructures and improve the socio-economic well-being of Nigerians through access to basic social and infrastructural facilities.

2.2. Empirical literature

Economic recovery and sustainability policies aim to address public problems. However, in a survey conducted by Obodoechi (2009) to examine the effects of economic policies on poverty reduction and community development in Enugu State, Nigeria, the findings of the empirical survey showed that “economic policies are brilliantly formulated but their implementation turn out to be ineffective, thereby leading to the failure of such public policies to achieve their aims and objectives for which they were designed”. Ozor (2004) on his part, assert that the “ineffective implementation of economic policies in Nigeria has continued to create a large gap between formulated policy goals and the actual achievement of those goals”. Basically, an empirical study he conducted among 24 rural communities of Nigerian Eastern and Southern States showed that “there is usually wide gaps between formulated policy goals and the achievement of those goals as a result of ineffective implementation in almost all facets of public administration in Nigeria” as noted by (Makinde, 2005; Ozor, 2004).

Aigbedion et al. (2016) conducted a study to examine human capital development and per capita income in Nigeria, using the error correction model. The result of their study shows that the problem of the Nigerian state is attributed to the lack of continuity of economic policies by successive governments. They added that poor economic performance is also due to a weak institutional framework. Anam and Antai (2018); and Zoaka (2018), leverage the findings of Aigbedion et al. (2016) and state that weak institutions, especially the civil service have led to “health crisis, capital flow reversals, increasing unemployment rate, increased poverty, lack of economic opportunities, urban crisis, insecurity, poor infrastructures, among others”. Also, “there is also a glut in the global gas market, on account of which Nigeria is unable to sell its stock of Liquefied Natural Gas, potentially wiping out much of the dividends expected from NLNG” (Anam & Antai, 2018; Zoaka, 2018). Abah (2010) argued that “the framework and level of economic policies and national development plans are pervasive and influential, especially in third world countries such as Nigeria where the private sector is very weak, as such policies determine the activities of government in the provision of services designed to solve problems” (Abah, 2010).

Ezeani (2006) conducted a study on the performance of successive economic policies in Nigeria. He discovered that there is often disharmony in policy formulation and implementation strategies. He noted that, between the legislature which formulates the laws, and the executive which implements them, there is no coherence and continuity in the policy process, due to the non-participation of the latter party in the formulation stage. This leads to poor implementation by public bureaucracies. The administrative capacity of the bureaucracies, especially of relevant institutions that will implement the economic policies is not taken into consideration. The policies, though well formulated suffer from poor implementation, therefore leaving the country with a cycle of continuous policy design and failed implementations.

The empirical studies from Ezeani (2006), Abah (2010), and Aigbedion et al. (2016), among others, have established the concerns of achieving the goals of the Nigerian Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, as well as the succeeding National Development Plan, in the long run. Looking ahead, Anam and Antai (2018) argued, on the “need to address social and economic problems in the country through a sustainable economic plan. While commending President Muhammadu Buhari’s policy initiatives in addressing Nigeria’s development challenges by establishing the Economic Sustainability Committee (ESC), they stressed that the design and implementation framework of ESC must have an economic sustainability plan. It must have an appropriate stimulus package to revive the already sinking economy, devise measures to create more jobs while keeping safe the existing ones; and identify fiscal and monetary measures to enhance oil and non-oil government revenues, to fund the plan. Herein lies the essence of this study in examining the structure of the policies and advance policy recommendations that he provides as a departure from previously failed policies in Nigeria.

3. Methodology

This is desk research. The design of the study is qualitative. Data are obtained from secondary sources and analyzed through content analysis. It leverages extant literature and the publication of the National Bureau of Statistics (2017), the Budget Office of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (2020), and the Nigeria Economic and Sustainability Plan (2020). To discuss the framework and implementation of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), Economic Sustainability Plan, and the National Development Plan, in Nigeria.

4. Results and Discussion

The paper adopts a thematic style in the presentation of issues as shown below,

4.1. Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (2017–2020): Structural outlook, challenges, and prospects

The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) is not the first economic policy in Nigeria. There’ve been several such policies to revamp the economy. Before ERGP, the last phase of the Vision 2020 period was characterized by serious macroeconomic challenges and recession. In response, the Federal Government introduced ERGP (Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning (2021). The ERGP aimed at restoring economic growth and driving sustainable, accelerated development. It focused on promoting national prosperity. The ERGP was an emergency recovery plan primarily formulated to pull Nigeria out of recession. It targeted a growth rate of 7 percent by the end of the year 2020, with an annual average real GDP growth rate of 4.62 percent between 2017 and 2020. This was to be mainly driven by the non-oil sectors. It emphasized bringing the inflation rate down to a single digit of 9 percent by the end of 2020 from the double digits of 18.6 percent in 2016 (Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning, 2021).

By 2020, Nigeria made significant progress toward achieving structural economic change. It became necessary to build a more diversified and inclusive economy. According to Anyanwu, ERGP was designed to deliver the following key outcomes:

1. Stable Macroeconomic Environment: The inflation rate is projected to trend downwards from the current level of almost 19 percent to single digits by 2020. It was also projected that the exchange rate will stabilize as the monetary, fiscal, and trade policies will fully align. To achieve this outcome, there will be a need to seek to remove uncertainty in the exchange rate and restore investors’ confidence in the market.

2. Restoration of Growth: Real GDP is projected to grow by 4.6 percent on average over the Plan period, from an estimated contraction of 1.51 percent recorded in 2016. Real GDP growth is projected to improve significantly to 2.19 percent in 2017, reaching 7 percent at the end of the Plan period in 2020. The strong recovery and expansion of crude oil and natural gas production will result as challenges in the oil-producing areas are overcome and investment in the sector increases. Crude oil output is forecast to rise from about 1.8 mbpd in 2016 to 2.2 mbpd in 2017 and 2.5 mbpd by 2020. A relentless focus on electricity and gas will also drive growth and expansion in all other sectors.

3. Agricultural transformation and food security: Agriculture will continue to be a stable driver of GDP growth, with an average growth rate of 6.9 percent over the Plan period. The Agricultural sector will boost growth by expanding crop production and the fisheries, livestock, and forestry sub-sectors as well as developing the value chain. Investment in agriculture will drive food security by achieving self-sufficiency in tomato paste (in 2017), rice (in 2018), and wheat (in 2020). Thus, by 2020, Nigeria is projected to become a net exporter of key agricultural products, such as rice, cashew nuts, groundnuts, cassava, and vegetable oil.

4. Power and petroleum products sufficiency: The ERGP aims to achieve 10 Gigawatt (GW) of operational capacity by 2020 and to improve the energy mix, including through greater use of renewable energy. The country is projected to become a net exporter of refined petroleum products by 2020.

5. Improved stock of transportation infrastructure: By placing transportation infrastructure as one of its key execution priorities, effective implementation of this Plan is projected to significantly improve the transportation network (road, rail, and port) in Nigeria by 2020. Given the scale of investment required to deliver this outcome, a strong partnership with the private sector is expected to result in the completion of strategic rail networks connecting major economic centers across the country, as well as improved federal road networks, inland waterways, and airports.

6. Industrialized economy: Strong recovery and growth in the manufacturing, SMEs, and services sectors are also anticipated, particularly in agro-processing, and food and beverage manufacturing. Ongoing strategies to improve the ease of doing business will boost all manufacturing sector activities. Overall, the ERGP estimates an average annual growth of 8.5 percent in manufacturing, rising from −5.8 percent in 2016 to 10.6 percent by 2020.

   1. Job creation and youth empowerment: The implementation of the Plan is projected to reduce unemployment from 13.9 percent as of Q3 2016 to 11.23 percent by 2020. This translates to the creation of over 15 million jobs during the Plan horizon or an average of 3.7 million jobs per annum. The focus of the job creation efforts will be youth employment and ensuring that the youths are the priority beneficiaries.

   2. Improved foreign exchange inflows: The reduction in the importation of petroleum products resulting from improvement in local refining capacity following the implementation of the ERGP is projected to reduce demand for foreign exchange. The economic diversification focus of the Plan is also projected to translate into enhanced inflows of foreign exchange from the non-oil sector.

With ERGP Nigeria is expected to witness stability in the exchange rate, a stable macroeconomic environment, and a major improvement in economic performance which should result in the following, amongst others:

1. Reduction in importation of food items and refined petroleum products,

2. Improved power supply,

3. Higher quality transport infrastructure,

4. Expansion in the level of industrial production,

5. Improved competitiveness,

6. Greater availability of foreign exchange,

7. Job creation, reduction in poverty and

8. Greater inclusiveness in the spread of the benefits of economic growth.

Unlike previous government policies and plans, the ERGP outlines a proposed delivery strategy which, amongst other things, establishes clear accountability, sets targets, allocates resources to established priority areas, creates enabling policy and regulatory environments, monitors and drives progress, and ensures effective communication. Whilst Nigerians continue to wait on the implementation of the Plan, it remains to be seen if the ERGP can deliver on its promise given its relatively ambitious timeline and the many other challenges to overcome. What appears to be clear however is that the ERGP, if successfully implemented, would have a tremendous effect in almost every sector of the Nigerian economy while leveraging science, technology, and innovation. Although the timeline for achieving most of its priority objectives appears ambitious, the Plan undoubtedly presents significant trade and investment opportunities for both local and international investors and businesses at a time when this is sorely needed (Anam & Antai, 2018).

These challenges according to Sanusi (2010) have remained largely unresolved owing to the myriad of problems:

1. Macroeconomic challenges: The Nigerian macro economy is still characterized by structural rigidities, dualism, and the false paradigm model. Generally, the sectors of the economy are in silos to the extent that the primary sector does not relate meaningfully with the secondary sector, and the same for the secondary and tertiary sectors. Agricultural produce ends up as final consumer goods as only a small quantity is processed or used as raw materials for local manufacturing industries. Also, the products of the extractive industries are exported in their raw forms without local value addition. Given the higher incomes in the oil and gas sub-sector of the extractive industry, attention is concentrated there to the almost total neglect of the mainstream economy. Consequently, the economy is broken into the very rich (relying on the oil and gas industry) and the very poor (relying on the mainstream economy) with almost a complete vacuum in between these two. The false paradigm model also plays out in the economy in the sense that while the few very wealthy groups clamor for relevance in the context of “expert” advice, the very poor suffer from ignorance, disease, and malnutrition. Thus, there is no structural change, and, hence, the attitudinal changes expected of economic transformation are absent.

2. Infrastructural challenges: One of the main challenges facing the economy is poor economic and social infrastructure: bad roads, erratic power supply, limited access to potable water and basic healthcare, and much more. Building a vibrant economy or restoring growth to a sluggish economy takes resources. To ensure long-term growth and prosperity, Nigeria must use its resources wisely, invest in advanced technology, and rebuild the infrastructure without which the economy will not gain from the “power of productivity”. A nation enjoys higher standards of living if the workers can produce large quantities of goods and services for local consumption and extra for export. The deficiencies in the economy lead to low productivity, poor quality products, and non-competitiveness in the global marketplace.

3. Poor institutions and corporate governance: Another important challenge to sustainable economic growth in Nigeria is the lack of effective institutions and good governance. These factors have been hindering various efforts and reforms of the government to stimulate economic growth for sustainable development in Nigeria. The prevalence of weak institutions and poor corporate governance as well as poor ethical standards in most public and private organizations, hinder the attainment of the goals of economic policies in the country. Poor corporate governance has adversely affected the quality of institutions to the extent that public and private institutions are used for selfish interests, thereby, making regulation and law enforcement ineffective.

4. Institutional corruption challenges: Although corruption is a global scourge, Nigeria appears to suffer particularly from it. Everyone appears to believe that the nation has a “culture of corruption”. Over the years, Nigeria has earned huge sums of money from crude oil, which appears to have largely gone down the sinkhole created by corruption. In an article, “Oil giant that runs on the grease of politics,” Nigeria was described as a rich nation floating on oil wealth “but almost none of it flows to the people” (San Francisco Chronicle, March 11, 2007). Corruption has denied Nigerians the value of the petro-dollar that has accrued to the country over the years. The failure of infrastructure, political and ethical standards as well as moral and educational standards can easily be traced to corruption.

5. Low quality of education: Education is an important factor in economic growth and development. However, the nation’s educational system has been facing a myriad of challenges, which prevent the country from achieving its economic objectives. The problems include inadequate funding planning and management, inadequate infrastructure, irrelevance of curricula to industrial needs, and inadequate commitment on the part of students and teachers, among others. All these have combined to hinder the production of a high-quality workforce to propel the economy (UNESS for Nigeria: 2006-2015).

6. The Dutch disease: Since the oil price boom of the early 1970s, the country abandoned the agricultural and industrial sectors of the economy to the old and weak. Both the public and private sectors of the economy concentrate their efforts on the oil and gas industry to the extent that the mainstream economy is denied funding, requisite investment, and even managerial capabilities. Thus, the mainstream economy has become uncompetitive globally while the country has turned into a trading outpost for foreign companies. This has hindered the much-needed transformation of the economy in the last four decades.

7. Poor investment climate: The consequence of all that has been said above is the poor investment climate in the economy that has rendered the economy uncompetitive. In the absence of adequate infrastructure (power, roads, water, etc.) the cost of doing business in the country remains high, forcing neighboring countries even companies that had existed in Nigeria for upwards of four decades.

4.1.1. The degree of implementation and success of the ERGP Plans

Assessing the degree of the implementation of the plan by February 2023, extant literature and official reports show that much has been achieved. The overall performance of the economy during the ERGP years was commendable, particularly as the trends were mildly positive for the greater part of the period. The ERGP left several development opportunities for Nigeria. Diversifying and strengthening the Nigerian economy is the first and most considered option in achieving the objectives of the growth plan. There were potentials in the oil and gas sectors, agriculture and manufacturing, telecommunications, and tourism, among others. The reversal of the trends in 2020 is attributable to the adverse effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the crude oil market, government finances, and foreign exchange earnings. In particular, the containment measures for the pandemic negatively impacted the domestic production and availability of goods and services, prices, and aggregate demand. The promptness and efficacy of the government’s fiscal and monetary policy responses to the pandemic led to the early exit from the recession, thus showing the economy’s resilience (Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning, 2021).

Going forward and leveraging on this resilience, the economy should improve in terms of job creation and fast-tracking infrastructural development. Unemployment and poverty have been on the increase as the economic growth rate has been lower than the population growth rate during the plan period. Also, the increasing cost of servicing debt continues to weigh negatively on the government’s revenue. In support of the position of Anyanwu (2017), the growth prospects and economic recovery can be achieved and sustained if:

1. The economy is diversified from the primary products and away from crude oil and natural gas; to other sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, solid minerals, services, tourism, and trade. The downstream petroleum sub-sector is deregulated and encourages the setting up of private refineries.

2. Efforts are sustained to maintain peace in Niger Delta to boost crude oil and gas output

3. Electricity supply will be increased to 15,000 -25,000 MWh between now and 2020, to boost manufacturing capacity utilization and activities in other critical sectors

4. Other key economic and social infrastructures are improved to facilitate the performances of other sectors.

5. Agricultural output is increased barring adverse weather conditions, with continued implementation of various government programmes, especially preserving, processing, and marketing activities; to add value to agricultural output.

6. The banking sector reforms and efforts to resolve liquidity challenges are sustained to channel credit massively to the real sector of the economy.

7. The growth in the services sector is sustained, by increasing the local contents of the industry and by expanding the teledensity of the country.

8. The balance of trade is persistently positive, as it has been in the last five years.

9. External reserves can be substantially built up to boost the creditworthiness of the economy and attract foreign investment.

10. The government sustains the current reforms in the various sectors of the economy to achieve rapid growth and development.

11. The existing democratic governance is sustained, and the rule of law, justice, fairness and equity, and inclusive growth are given the priorities they deserve in Nigeria.

12. Strengthen law enforcement institutions and sustain the fight against corruption.

13. Put in place definite effort to reduce the cost of governance and restructure government expenditure patterns in favour of capital expenditure.

14. Motivate the SMEs and enhance good governance.

4.2. Economic Sustainability Plan: structural outlook, challenges, and prospects

The Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan (NESP) aims to develop and respond robustly to the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic by creating a financial stimulus to ramp up the Nigerian economy. The plan focuses on supporting SMEs, creating jobs, and protecting poor and vulnerable people. The main interventions proposed to lie in solar, the agricultural field, construction, and repair of roads and housing programmes. In June 2020 USD 5.9 billion (NGN 2.3 trillion) to stimulate and diversify the economy, retain and create jobs, and extend more protections to the poor. As a major objective, the Economic Sustainability Plan seeks to foster new ways of working, producing, learning, and managing public health and safety in the years to come. This includes building resilience across critical sectors, including aviation, education, healthcare, internal security, mining, water, and sanitation (Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic and Sustainability Plan, 2020). The Budget Office of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (2020) disclosed that Nigeria’s Economic Sustainability Plan includes a commitment from the federal government to deliver and maintain 5 million new solar connections under a “solar power strategy”. The plan also includes a cut of USD2bn in annual fuel subsidies.

4.2.1. Objectives of the plan

1. To stimulate the economy by preventing business collapse and ensuring liquidity;

2. Retain or create jobs using labour intensive methods in key areas like agriculture, facility maintenance, housing, and direct labour interventions;

3. Undertake growth-enhancing and job-creating infrastructural investments in roads, bridges, solar power, and communications technologies;

4. Promote manufacturing and local production at all levels and advocate the use of Made in Nigeria goods and services, as a way of creating job opportunities, achieving self-sufficiency in critical sectors of our economy, and curbing unnecessary demand for foreign exchange which might put pressure on the exchange rate; and

5. Extend protection to the very poor and other vulnerable groups, including women and persons living with disabilities, through pro-poor spending (Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic and Sustainability Plan, 2020).

According to the framework published by the Nigeria Economic and Sustainability Plan (2020), the plan was based on three pillars:

1. The first pillar consists of “Real Sector Measures”, and comprises a mix of project and policy approaches, which focus on the creation of jobs across the fields of agriculture and agro-processing, food security, housing construction, renewable energy, infrastructure, manufacturing, and the digital economy. The aim is to safeguard existing micro, small, and medium-scale businesses while ramping up local productive capacity by encouraging opportunities for innovation in the various sectors.

2. The second, “Fiscal and Monetary Measures”, outlines steps that will be taken to maximize government revenue, optimise expenditure and enshrine a regime of prudence with an emphasis on achieving value for money. The overriding objective is to keep the economy active through carefully calibrated regulatory interventions designed to de-risk the environment for local production and enterprise, galvanise external sources of funding, rationalise existing debt obligations, and boost investments in strategic sectors affected by the COVID-19 pandemic while supporting the financial viability of State Governments.

3. The “third pillar is Implementation”. This is the key to the success of the plan. Each Minister will be responsible for supervising the implementation of plans situated in their Ministry through a ministerial implementation Committee chaired by the Minister. The Ministerial Committee will be responsible for ensuring synergy between stakeholders, especially the public and private sectors.

The Committees shall also drive the execution of specific projects, coordinate the entire sectorial value chain, and ensure the resolution of bottlenecks impeding implementation. The Economic Sustainability Committee, which is an inter-ministerial Committee, will be responsible for general oversight of implementation and will report to the President. Expenditure will be monitored through the National M & E Framework and the Budget Office of the Federation. The committee carried out key projects through relevant Ministries to sustain economic activity, boost production, create the maximum number of jobs possible, and save foreign exchange.

4.2.2. Evaluating the degree of implementation and success of NDP

The implementation of the Economic Sustainability Plan (ESP) has gained traction and unarguably is achieving the desired impact on the Nigerian economy (Nan, 2021). For the benefit of hindsight, the COVID-19 pandemic which was first reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019 triggered a strangulating global economic downturn. In its second wave, the pandemic has continued to decimate the world’s population amidst the vaccine race. On 30 March 2020, President Muhammadu Buhari, set up the Economic Sustainability Committee (ESC), chaired by Vice President Yemi Osinbajo to develop an economic sustainability plan to last until 2023 (Nan, 2021).

The ESC was mandated inter alia: To develop a stimulus package and come up with measures to cushion the impact of the pandemic on the economy. The committee hit the ground running and after a series of meetings, drafted and presented the Economic Sustainability Plan (ESP), which was approved by President Buhari. On Jan. 5, Osinbajo updated Buhari on the progress recorded so far in the implementation of the ESP. The Vice President said that three months into the implementation of different components of the plan, namely: the MSMEs Survival Fund; Social Housing Scheme, and Solar Home System, among others, Nigerians across different sectors had been impacted. He said that under the Payroll Support Track of the Survival Fund, 277,628 beneficiaries drawn from 56,575 businesses had been paid. “This total number includes the batch of 20,614 beneficiaries that were recently paid for October and 257,014 beneficiaries that were paid for November and December (Nan, 2021).

“A breakdown of the 257,014 beneficiaries shows that N30,000 was paid to each of the 222,466 beneficiaries as of November and December payments, while N50,000 each was paid to 34,548 beneficiaries as of November and December salaries. “Out of the total number, three percent are beneficiaries with special needs, while 43 percent are female employees/beneficiaries.’’ The Vice president said that the enumeration of prospective beneficiaries for the Transport Support Track, which was launched in December 2020, was still ongoing. According to him, the payment of N30,000 one-time grants to 333,000 artisans across the country is in progress, with payments already made to verified beneficiaries in states under streams 1, 2, and 3. He listed the states as Lagos, Ondo, Kaduna, Borno, Kano, Bauchi, Anambra, Abia, Plateau, Delta, and FCT-under stream (Nan, 2021).

He said that the process of installation of N140 billion Solar Home Systems that would cover up to five million households had started. “The project which will serve about 25 million individuals in rural areas and urban communities began with the enlistment of solar assembling companies and components’ manufacturers as well as solar servicing firms. “Under the scheme, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will make available funds to private companies involved in the manufacture, installation, and servicing of the solar systems, at rates ranging between five to 10 percent. “An important aspect of the scheme is the option of outright ownership by beneficiaries at a cost ranging from N1,500 per week to N4,000 monthly, depending on the capacities, for three years.’’ Osinbajo also highlighted the progress made so far in social housing; noting that prototype units had been inaugurated in the FCT, while construction was set to commence in 12 states. He said that the plan by the Federal Government to support 1.5 million Nigerians to acquire low-cost houses under the Social Housing Programme of the ESP was on course, as the portal for application by prospective beneficiaries was launched in December 2020, alongside the prototype 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom units (Nan, 2021).

“The plan is to have a Rent to Own Option as part of Federal Government’s resolve to impact the common man in the social housing scheme expected to also generate 1.8 million jobs and deliver houses to about 1.5 million Nigerian families. “Sites for early start projects have been identified in all the six geo-political zones in addition to the FCT. “The sites include those in Ekiti and Ogun in the South-West, Enugu, and Abia in the South-East, Delta, and Edo in the South-South, Yobe and Bauchi in the North-East, Kaduna and Katsina in the North-West and Nasarawa and Plateau in the North-Central (Nan, 2021).

Again, on Jan. 19, while inaugurating the ESP’s Cash Transfer Scheme to be facilitated through a wholly technology-based approach, called the Rapid Response Register (RRR), Osinbajo was upbeat about ESP’s ability to address poverty in the country. Osinbajo said that the Federal Government’s vision of reducing extreme poverty by lifting at least 20 million Nigerians out of poverty in the next two years was within reach. It is how urban poor and vulnerable populations can be speedily identified, using geographic satellite technology and other related means to deliver cash to households affected by the fallouts of the COVID-19 pandemic (NAN Features) (Nan, 2021).

4.3. National Development Plan (2021–2025): Structural outlook, challenges, and prospects

The vision of NDP is to make Nigeria a country that has unlocked its potential in all sectors of the economy for sustainable, holistic, and inclusive national development. To effectively guide the implementation of programmes and policies that promote rapid multi-sectoral growth and development of Nigeria’s economy. The associated broad objectives of the Plan are to:

1. Establish a strong foundation for a diversified economy, with robust MSME growth, and a more resilient business environment

2. Invest in critical physical, financial, digital, and innovation infrastructure

3. Build a solid framework and enhance capacities to strengthen security and ensure good governance

4. Enable a vibrant, educated, and healthy population

5. Investing in the social infrastructure and services required to alleviate poverty, and

6. Promoting development opportunities across States to minimize regional economic and social disparities.

The National Development Plan has emerged as a policy and economic framework to address the challenges of economic recovery and sustainability in Nigeria. The policy structure states that this Plan was formulated against the backdrop of several subsisting development challenges in the country and the need to tackle them within the framework of medium- and long-term plans. These challenges include low and fragile economic growth, insecurity, weak institutions, insufficient public service delivery, notable infrastructure deficits, climate change, and weak social indicators. Hence, the Plan seeks to invest massively in infrastructure, ensure macroeconomic stability, enhance the investment environment, improve social indicators and living conditions, and implement climate change mitigation, adaptation, and resilience strategies, amongst others.

Specifically, the framework disclosed that the Plan aims to generate 21 million full-time jobs and lift 35 million people out of poverty by 2025. Thus, setting the stage for achieving the government’s commitment of lifting 100 million Nigerians out of poverty in 10 years. The country can achieve these targets through high-quality economic growth and a more inclusive economy, leveraging its young workforce, and enhancing implementation capacity at national and subnational levels. With effective implementation, Nigeria will progress significantly on the path of unlocking its potential in all sectors of the economy for a sustainable, holistic, and inclusive national development.

In a foreword by President Muhammadu Buhari, he disclosed that Nigeria’s National Development Plan (NDP), 2021 – 2015 is a medium-term blueprint designed to unlock the country’s potential in all sectors of the economy for a sustainable, holistic, and inclusive national development, developed by the different facet of the Private Sector, Sub-national Government, Civil Society Organization (CSO) and facilitated by the Federal Government of Nigeria. This was deliberately done for inclusiveness, participation, and citizen engagement to ensure no one is left behind. The Plan is a successor to the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), 2017–2020, which elapsed in December 2020. The vision of the NDP, 2021–2025 is consistent with the pursuit of socio-economic transformation of our country as envisioned in the long-term aspiration of Nigeria, encapsulated in the Nigeria Agenda 2050. The Plan also builds on the achievements and lessons learned during the implementation of the ERGP (Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning, 2021).

The NDP 2021–2025, adopted an integrated and multi-sectoral development approach. The approach recognises the multi-faceted and interlinked nature of sustainable development, which calls for interventions to be tackled simultaneously through a coordinated approach to implementing development programmes. To achieve this, the Plan is guided by four strategic objectives, namely, establishing a strong foundation for a concentric diversified economy; investment in critical physical, financial, science, and innovation infrastructure; building a solid framework and enhancing capacities to strengthen security and ensure good governance; and enabling a vibrant, educated, and healthy populace. During the Plan period, the government will focus on sectors with great potential to generate jobs for our people and with multiplier effects on other sectors. He added that, “We will continue to invest in critical infrastructure such as Power and alternative energy, Rail, Roads, and Housing and ensure macroeconomic stability, enhance business and investment environment, and improve the living conditions of Nigerians” (Nan, 2021).

By 2025, the effective implementation of the Plan is expected to achieve an average economic growth of 4.6 percent. Cumulatively it would have lifted 35 million people out of poverty and created 21 million full-time jobs. It would have also raised the revenue-to-GDP ratio to 15 percent as well as improved the health and education of the population. To attain the objectives of the Plan, a total of N348.1 trillion investment commitment is required. The Government (Federal, state, and LGAs) investment is expected to be N49.7 trillion, while the balance of N298.3 trillion will be funded by the private sector. A strong partnership between the public and private sectors is, therefore, imperative for the successful delivery of the Plan outcomes (Nan, 2021). The government will also put in place a robust implementation framework that promotes performance and accountability. In this regard, the development Plan Implementation Unit and the National Monitoring and Evaluation system will be strengthened for the assessment and tracking of government policies and programmes. The programme aimed to deliver on laudable initiatives contained in the Plan, concerted efforts and commitment of all stakeholders are required.

The macroeconomic outlook, as captured in the National Development Plan, 2021–2025, aims at accelerated, sustained inclusive, and private sector-led growth. Critical macro-structural issues in the areas of concentric economic diversification, fiscal space to support higher economic and social expenditures, and a stable macroeconomic environment remain. The robust macroeconomic framework developed for the plan enabled the projections in the areas of real sector, fiscal, monetary, and external sectors. The macroeconomic framework recognized that sectors have differing potentials for growth and thus identified and leveraged those sectors with the highest potential for stimulating the growth of the Nigerian economy (Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget, and National Planning, 2021). It is difficult to evaluate the implementation of the policy, as the framework is ongoing. However, from the outlook, it is believed that, with strong institutions, the objectives of NDP will be fully actualized and sustain the Nigerian economy.

5. Conclusion

The study aimed to examine the suitability and prospects of the economic policies of President Muhammadu Buhari, concerning the medium-term Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, Economic Sustainability Plan, and the long-term National Development Plan (2021–2025). The scope was to assess the policy outlooks and implementation frameworks. Extant literature shows that the economic policies are well-defined and can address the daunting challenges facing the Nigerian economy. However, results from empirical reviews have shown that the challenges of lack of policy continuity, weak administrative framework, and inadequate funding of policy objectives, which affected economic policies in the past, may affect the actualization of the National Development Plan by 2025. This calls for timely interventions through effective governance, demonstrated in the strong political will to promote and fund the instruments of economic policy and administrative restructuring.

5.1. Policy suggestions

Based on the findings of the study and the implications of the public policy stated above, the paper advocates that,

1. The present administration must accept the goals of the National Development Plan (2021-2025) and provide an effective implementation framework, that will strengthen administration institutions responsible for its implementation.

2. In achieving the policy goals, the government must work with relevant stakeholders within and outside the country for the structural transformation of the economy to guarantee continuous improvement in the welfare and standard of living of all citizens.

3. Evaluating the outcome of the National Development Plans, must include the impact of the policy on the wellbeing of citizens in Nigeria. There is a need to reduce poverty and create more jobs using labour intensive methods in key areas like agriculture, housing, digital business services, and direct labour interventions.

4. The government must invest in infrastructures like roads, bridges, education, health, electricity, and communication technologies. This will complement the objectives of the National Development Plan, which seeks to enable a vibrant, educated, and healthy population, invest in the social infrastructure and services required to alleviate poverty and promote development opportunities across States to minimize regional economic and social disparities, among other things.

5.2. Limitations and suggestions for further research

There were several economic policies carried out by President Muhammadu Buhari, but this study focused on only three, the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, the Economic Sustainability Plan, and the National Development Plan. This scope limits a total assessment of the economic situation of Nigeria under his administration. Other researchers need to research other economic and social policies of the administration and even the current administration. More research will support findings and provide the direction for good governance and economic development in Nigeria.

Highlight of the corrections

The following corrections as highlighted in the main text are affected in the study,

1. The abstract is rewritten to capture the motivation, objective, data and method, results, and implications.

2. The Introduction is improved with contemporary literature. The literature shows the gap, which justifies the study.

3. The content of the manuscript is enhanced with empirical literature.

4. The paper is reorganized in the suggested format: (1) Introduction (2) Literature Review (3) Methodology (4) Results and Discussion (5) Conclusion and Policy Implication

5. The study is enhanced with Theoretical and Empirical Literature

6. The significance of the study is captured in the introduction of the study.

7. The conclusion of the paper reiterates the results of the study.

8. The limitations and suggestions for further study are captured as suggested.

9. The paper is well edited, to ensure grammatical accuracy.

10. A statement on public interest is also included in the study.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Bassey Ekpenyong Anam

Bassey Ekpenyong Anam The corresponding author, is a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Public Policy and Administration, University of Calabar. His research areas are Public and Social Policy, Development Administration, and Research Methodology. He is a policy analyst, management training consultant, and seasoned researcher with outstanding results in research funding/grants. He offers research and technical support to governments, Universities, and international development organizations. In addition to authoring, editing, and co-editing more than 40 academic Books, Policy, Economic, and Strategic plans for international development, Dr. Anam has published more than 50 academic papers in international journals.