Rethinking OODA: Toward a Modern Cognitive Framework of Command Decision Making

Abstract

The Observe–Orient–Decide–Act (OODA) Loop, a common framework in which military decision making is discussed, is no longer current with modern theories of human cognition. A new framework, based on theoretical advances in the cognitive sciences since the 1950s, is proposed in this paper. The Critique–Explore–Compare–Adapt (CECA) Loop is explicitly based on the premise that goal-oriented mental models are central to human decision making as the means to represent and make sense of the world. The framework assumes that operational planning establishes the initial conceptual model, which is a mental model of the plan. A situation model is created to represent the state of the battlespace at any given point in time. The 4 phases of the CECA Loop broadly correspond to the identification of information needs (critique), active and passive data collection and situation updating (explore), comparison of the current situation to the conceptual model (compare), and adaptation to aspects of the battlespace that invalidate the conceptual model or block the path to goal completion (adapt). The CECA Loop is intended to serve as a practical but widely applicable framework in which to think about decision making in the context of command and control.

Notes

1 Although the OODA Loop seems to view perception in simple bottom-up terms, John Boyd (1987) probably did not intend his model to exclude top-down processes. Colonel Boyd created his model in the context of jet air warfare, where there were relatively few entities involved at any given time and the pilots performed highly structured tasks. This context allowed the model-driven, top-down nature of perception and decision making to be hidden by implied assumptions.

2 The concept of implicit intent is similar in respects to the concept of tacit knowledge studied by Sternberg and colleagues (Hedlund, Sternberg, & Psotka, 2000; Horvath et al., 1994; Sternberg et al., 2000). Tacit knowledge comprises practical knowledge acquired through experience and is believed to underlie many aspects of task performance and problem solving.

3 In using the conceptual model to define the kinds of information one will seek, one risks excluding key but unanticipated factors that will bear on the operation, leading to surprise, which is at least as equally undesirable an outcome as information overload. The role of the CECA Loop model is not to advocate the highest conceptual orientation to decision making. Instead, by describing how people naturally tend to think, it provides a framework for exploring the balance of risk of information overload and surprise.