Uncertainty in travel demand forecasting models: literature review and research agenda

Abstract

Reasoning why uncertainty analysis will become important in years to come, this paper reviews prior work on uncertainty analysis in travel demand forecasting. Different sources of uncertainty are discussed. Studies examining these various sources of uncertainty are summarized differentiating between four step models, discrete choice models and activity-based models of travel demand. Next, gaps in the literature and avenues of future research are systematically discussed with a special focus on complex activity-based models. The paper is completed with some concluding comments.

Keywords:

• Uncertainty analysis
• travel demand forecasting