Comprehensive risk management using fuzzy FMEA and MCDA techniques in highway construction projects

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive framework to manage the main risk events of highway construction projects within three stages: (1) identification of potential risks; (2) assessment and prioritisation of identified risks based on fuzzy FMEA; (3) identification of appropriate response. The main criteria analysed for prioritising potential risk events are cost, time and quality which are quantified and combined using fuzzy AHP. A new expert system is suggested for identifying an appropriate risk response strategy for a risk event based on risk factor, control number and risk allocation. The best response action for a risk event is then identified with respect to the same criteria using “scope expected deviation” (SED) index. The proposed methodology is demonstrated for management of risk events in a construction project of Bijar-Zanjan highway in Iran. For the risk event of “increase in tar price”, deviation from the target values of the criteria is analysed for business-as-usual state plus two risk response actions using SED index. The results show that the response action of “changing paving construction technology from asphalt pavement to RCC pavement” can successfully cope with the risk event of “increase in tar price” and have the minimum deviation.

Keywords:

• risk management
• response actions
• risk strategy
• fuzzy AHP
• fuzzy FMEA

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Mohsen Ahmadi

Mohsen AHMADI. Research Graduate at Amirkabir University of Technology, He received his Master’s degree in Construction Engineering and Management from Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran. His research focuses on the risk management and fuzzy theory and their applications in the project management domain.

Kourosh Behzadian

Kourosh BEHZADIAN. Senior Lecturer in Civil Engineering in the School of Computing and Engineering at the University of West London. Prior to joining London, he was working as a research fellow at the Centre for Water Systems in the University of Exeter, UK. And before that, an assistant professor at Environmental Research Centre in Amirkabir University of Technology, Iran. His research focuses on risk management and uncertainty analysis in civil and environmental engineering.

Abdollah Ardeshir

Abdollah ARDESHIR. Associate Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran. He is the head of the Environmental Research Centre at Amirkabir University of Technology. His research focuses on construction and safety management and applications of risk events.

Zoran Kapelan

Zoran KAPELAN. Professor of Water Systems Engineering and Academic Lead of the Water and Environment Group at the University of Exeter. He is an IWA Fellow with over 25 years’ experience and expertise covering a wide range of issues in civil engineering including risk management and decision support.