An introduction to Prospective Multiple Attribute Decision Making (PMADM)

Abstract.

In recent years futures science has received a great deal of attention and has gained world-wide credibility in the science community as the science of tomorrows. The countless applications of futures studies in various fields have been a major breakthrough for mankind. Undoubtedly, decision making is one of the most significant aspects of shaping the future and an integral part of any credible future research. Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) in general and Multiple Attribute Decision Making in particular (MADM), are among the most remarkable subparts of the decision making process. The most recent model developed using the MADM method is the Dynamic MADM. The model does not specifically concentrate on the future actions and approaches and remains to be fully explored. This research presents a new concept and a new approach in the MADM field which is called the Prospective Multiple Attribute Decision Making (PMADM). The PMADM model can very well cover the DMADM concept but instead chooses to focus on future topics. The study also introduces two new approaches. The first research aims to elaborate the basis of this model and then evolves to deal with the future limiters as they potentially pop up and change the course of future actions. The new model based on future limiters is separated and categorized into two sections; one of which is looked upon without the probabilities rate and the other one with the probabilities rate. This approach is deemed priceless due to its major applicability in the ranking of the MADM methods such as: TOPSIS, VIKOR, COPRAS, ARAS, WASPAS and etc. Finally, a case study with the various applications of PMADM model in WASPAS methodology is put forth and illustrated.

Keywords:

• Prospective Multiple Attribute Decision Making (PMADM)
• decision making
• future
• MADM
• limiters

JEL Classification:

• C02
• C44
• C61

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Sarfaraz Hashemkhani Zolfani

Sarfaraz HASHEMKHANI ZOLFANI is PhD candidate of Technology Foresight in Amirkabir University of Technology (Tehran Polytechnic). He is in cooperating with Futures Studies Research Institute of Amirkabir University of Technology (Tehran Polytechnic) and Sustainability office of Amirkabir University of Technology (Tehran Polytechnic). He is part time research associate in council for futures studies, Iranian Academy of Sciences and adviser to the president, Iranian Society of Future Studies. He is Council member of International Association of Grey System and Uncertain Analysis (GSUA) and member of EURO Working Group OR in Sustainable Development and Civil Engineering. He is reviewer in journals like: Technological and Economic Development of Economy, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Evaluation and Program Planning, Journal of Business Economics and Management, International Journal of Strategic Property Management, and etc. He is author of more than 50 scientific papers that presented, published or reviewed at/for International Conferences and Journals (including ISI-cited publications). He has published in journals such as: Expert Systems with Applications, Energy Conversion and Management, Technological and Economic Development of Economy, Journal of Business Economics and Management, International Journal of Strategic Property Management, Archives of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, and etc. His research interests include: Performance Evaluation, Strategic Management, Decision-making Theory, Supply Chain Management, (Dynamic/Prospective) Multi Criteria Decision Making, Future Studies, Sustainable Development and Game Theory.

Reza Maknoon

Reza MAKNOON is faculty member of Civil and Environmental Engineering Department of Amirkabir University of Technology (Tehran Polytechnic) since 1977. He got PhD in Environmental Engineering from University of Washington in 1977. He is president of Iranian Water Resource Association and ex-president of Society for Science Development in Iran and also vice president of Iranian Society of Environmentalists. He is member and past president of Iranian National Committee on Hydrology (IHP) and also Iranian Committee on Large Dams. He is chairperson of Iranian National Committee for Sustainable Development (CSD) since 1995 in Iran. He is author of more than 70 research articles in sustainable tourism, water resource developments, environmental impact assessments, research policies and human development and higher education fields. He is editorial board of Environmental Studies (Quarterly Journal) of Iran.

Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas

Edmundas Kazimieras ZAVADSKAS. PhD, DSc, h.c.multi. Prof., the Head of the Department of Construction Technology and Management at Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Lithuania. Senior Research Fellow at the Research Institute of Smart Building Technologies. PhD in Building Structures (1973). DrSc in Building Technology and Management (1987). A member of Lithuanian and several foreign Academies of Sciences. Doctore Honoris Causa from Poznan, Saint Petersburg and Kiev universities. Honorary International Chair Professor of the National Taipei University of Technology. A member of international organizations; a member of steering and programme committees at many international conferences; a member of the editorial boards of several research journals; the author and co-author of more than 400 papers and a number of monographs in Lithuanian, English, German and Russian. The editor-in-chief of journals Technological and Economic Development of Economy and Journal of Civil Engineering and Management. Research interests: building technology and management, decision-making theory, automation in design and decision support systems.