Fiscal shocks and budget balance persistence in the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe

References

• Afonso , A , Nickel , C and Rother , Ph . 2006 . Fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries . Review of World Economics , 142 : 402 – 21 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Afonso , A and Rault , C . 2008 . 3-step analysis of public finances sustainability: the case of the European Union Working Paper Series No. 908, European Central Bank
   Google Scholar
• Annett , A . 2006 . Enforcement and the stability and growth pact: how fiscal policy did and did not change under Europe's fiscal framework IMF Working Paper No. 06/116, International Monetary Fund
   Google Scholar
• Aslund , A and Dombrovskis , V . 2011 . How Latvia Came Through the Financial Crisis , Washington , DC : Peterson Institute for International Economics .
   Google Scholar
• Balassone , F and Franco , D . 2010 . Fiscal sustainability: a review of the issues and new developments mimeo, Bank of Italy; paper presented at The XXII Villa Mondragone International Economic Seminar, 22–23 June 2010, Rome, Italy
   Google Scholar
• Barsky , RB and Miron , JA . 1989 . The seasonal cycle and the business cycle . Journal of Political Economy , 97 : 503 – 34 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Becker , T , Daianu , D , Darvas , Z , Gligorov , V , Landesmann , M , Petrovic , P , Pisani-Ferry , J , Rosati , D , Sapir , A and Weder di Mauro , B . 2010 . Whither Growth in Central and Eastern Europe?, Bruegel Blueprint Series , Vol. XI , Brussels : Bruegel .
   Google Scholar
• Berger , H , Kopits , G and Szekely , I . 2007 . Fiscal indulgence in Central Europe: loss of the external anchor? . Scottish Journal of Political Economy , 54 : 116 – 35 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bhargava , A . 1986 . On the theory of testing for unit roots in observed time series . Review of Economics Studies , 53 : 369 – 84 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bohn , H . 2007 . Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint? . Journal of Monetary Economics , 54 : 1837 – 47 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Braun , RA and Evans , CL . 1995 . Seasonality and equilibrium business cycle theories . Journal of Economics, Dynamics and Control , 19 : 503 – 31 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Budina , N and van Wijnbergen , S . 2007 . Quantitative approaches to fiscal sustainability analysis: a new World Bank tool applied to Turkey World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4169
   Google Scholar
• Caporale , GM . 1995 . Bubble finance and debt sustainability: a test of the government's intertemporal budget constraint . Applied Economics , 27 : 1135 – 43 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Collignon , S . 2006 . The sustainability of public finances and Europe's fiscal rules mimeo, London School of Economics and Harvard University. Available at http://www.stefancollignon.de/PDF/Sustainability%20Paper%2016.pdf (accessed 17 June 2012)
   Google Scholar
• Cunado , J , Gil-Alana , LA and Perez de Gracia , F . 2004 . Is the US fiscal deficit sustainable? A fractionally integrated approach . Journal of Economics and Business , 56 : 501 – 26 .
   Google Scholar
• Demetrescu , M and Hassler , U . 2007 . Effect of neglected deterministic seasonality on unit root tests . Statistical Papers , 48 : 385 – 402 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• EC (2010) Public finances in EMU – 2010, European Economy, No. 4/2010, European Commission
   Google Scholar
• Elliott , G , Rothenberg , TJ and Stock , JH . 1996 . Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root . Econometrica , 64 : 813 – 36 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fabrizio , S and Mody , A . 2010 . Breaking the impediments to budgetary reforms: evidence from Europe . Economics and Politics , 22 : 362 – 91 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Friedman , BM . 2006 . “ Deficits and debt in the short and long run ” . In The Macroeconomics of Fiscal Policy , Edited by: Kopcke , RW , Tootell , GMB and Triest , RK . 207 – 36 . Cambridge : MIT Press .
   Google Scholar
• Ghysels , E . 1988 . A study towards a dynamic theory of seasonality for economic time series . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 83 : 168 – 72 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Greiner , A and Semmler , W . 1999 . An inquiry into the sustainability of German fiscal policy: some time-series tests . Public Finance Review , 27 : 220 – 36 .
   Google Scholar
• Hamilton , JD and Flavin , MA . 1986 . On the limitations of government borrowing: a framework for empirical testing . American Economic Review , 76 : 808 – 19 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Haug , A . 1995 . Has federal budget deficit policy changed in recent years . Economic Inquiry , 33 : 104 – 18 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Holmes , M , Otero , J and Panagiotidis , T . 2010 . Are EU budget deficits stationary? . Empirical Economics , 38 : 767 – 78 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kapetanios , G , Shin , Y and Snell , A(KSS) . 2003 . Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework . Journal of Econometrics , 112 : 359 – 79 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lau , E and Baharumshah , AZ . 2009 . Assessing the mean reversion behaviour of fiscal policy: the perspective of Asian countries . Applied Economics , 41 : 1939 – 49 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lee , J and Strazicich , MC(LS) . 2003 . Minimum LM unit root test with two structural breaks . Review of Economics and Statistics , 85 : 1082 – 9 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Leijonhufvud , A . 2011 . Nature of an economy CEPR Policy Insight, No. 53, Centre for Economic Policy Research
   Google Scholar
• Lewis , J . 2007 . Fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe: what happened in the run-up to EU accession . International Economics and Economic Policy , 4 : 15 – 31 .
   Google Scholar
• Ng , S and Perron , P . 2001 . Lag selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power . Econometrica , 69 : 1519 – 54 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Perron , P . 1989 . The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis . Econometrica , 57 : 1361 – 401 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Phillips , PCB . 1987 . Time series regression with a unit root . Econometrica , 55 : 311 – 40 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Phillips , PCB and Perron , P . 1988 . Testing for a unit root in time series regression . Biometrica , 75 : 335 – 46 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Prohl , S and Schneider , F . 2006 . Sustainability of public debt and budget deficit: panel cointegration analysis for the European Union member countries Working Paper No. 0610, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University of Linz
   Google Scholar
• Sollis , R . 2009 . A simple unit root test against asymmetric STAR nonlinearity with an application to real exchange rate in Nordic countries . Economic Modelling , 26 : 118 – 25 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Staehr , K . 2008 . Fiscal policies and business cycles in an enlarged euro area . Economic Systems , 32 : 46 – 69 .
   Google Scholar
• Staehr , K . 2010 . The global financial crisis and public finances in the new EU countries in Central and Eastern Europe: developments and challenges . Public Finance and Management , 10 : 671 – 712 .
   Google Scholar
• Trehan , B and Walsh , CE . 1988 . Common trends, the government budget constraint and revenue smoothing . Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control , 12 : 425 – 44 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Trehan , B and Walsh , CE . 1991 . Testing intertemporal budget constraints: theory and applications to US federal budget and current account deficits . Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking , 23 : 206 – 23 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vanhorebeek , F and Rompuy , Pv . 1995 . Solvency and sustainability of fiscal policies in the EU . De Economist , 143 : 457 – 73 .
   Google Scholar
• Wilcox , DW . 1989 . The sustainability of government deficits: implications of the present value borrowing constraint . Journal of Money, Credit and Banking , 21 : 291 – 306 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar