378
Views
11
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

A mean-variance approach to forecasting with the consumer confidence index

&

References

  • Al-Eyd, A., Barrell, R. and Davis, E. P. (2009) Consumer confidence indices and short-term forecasting of consumption*, The Manchester School, 77, 96–111. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9957.2008.02089.x
  • Bram, J. and Ludvigson, S. (1998) Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? A sentiment index horse race, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 4, 59–78.
  • Bruno, G. (2014) Consumer confidence and consumption forecast: a non-parametric approach, Empirica, 41, 37–52. doi:10.1007/s10663-013-9228-9
  • Campbell, J. Y. and Mankiw, N. G. (1989) Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
  • Carroll, C. and Dunn, W. (1997) Unemployment expectations, jumping (s,s) triggers, and household balance sheets: comment, in NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol. 12, Bernanke, B. S. and Rotemberg, J. J. (Eds), MIT Press, Cambridge, pp. 165–230.
  • Carroll, C. D., Fuhrer, J. C. and Wilcox, D. W. (1994) Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending? If so, why?, American Economic Review, 84, 1397–408.
  • Ҫelik, S. and Özerkek, Y. (2009) Panel cointegration analysis of consumer confidence and personal consumption in the European Union, Journal of Business Economics and Management, 10, 161–68. doi:10.3846/1611-1699.2009.10.161-168
  • Chen, S.-S. (2011) Lack of consumer confidence and stock returns, Journal of Empirical Finance, 18, 225–36. doi:10.1016/j.jempfin.2010.12.004
  • Cotsomitis, J. A. and Kwan, A. C. C. (2006) Can consumer confidence forecast household spending? Evidence from the European commission business and consumer surveys, Southern Economic Journal, 72, 597–610. doi:10.2307/20111835
  • Croushore, D. (2005) Do consumer-confidence indexes help forecast consumer spending in real time?, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 16, 435–50. doi:10.1016/j.najef.2005.05.002
  • Curtin, R., Presser, S. and Singer, E. (2000) The effects of response rate changes on the index of consumer sentiment, The Public Opinion Quarterly, 64, 413–28. doi:10.1086/318638
  • Curtin, R. T., 2005. Surveys of Consumers. Available at http://press.sca.isr.umich.edu/ (accessed 20 January 2015).
  • Dees, S. and Brinca, P. S. (2011) Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending: evidence for the United States and the euro area, European Central Bank, Working Paper Series 1349, p. 31.
  • Dominitz, J. and Manski, C. F. (2004) How should we measure consumer confidence?, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18, 51–66. doi:10.1257/0895330041371303
  • Dreger, C. and Kholodilin, K. A. (2013) Forecasting private consumption by consumer surveys, Journal of Forecasting, 32, 10–18. doi:10.1002/for.1245
  • Fornell, C., Rust, R. T. and Dekimpe, M. G. (2010) The effect of customer satisfaction on consumer spending growth, Journal of Marketing Research (JMR), 47, 28–35. doi:10.1509/jmkr.47.1.28
  • Fuhrer, J. C. (1993) What role does consumer sentiment play in the U.S. macroeconomy?, New England Economic Review, 32–44.
  • Gelper, S., Lemmens, A. and Croux, C. (2007) Consumer sentiment and consumer spending: decomposing the granger causal relationship in the time domain, Applied Economics, 39, 1–11. doi:10.1080/00036840500427791
  • Howrey, E. P. (2001) The predictive power of the index of consumer sentiment, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2001, 175–216. doi:10.1353/eca.2001.0010
  • Leeper, E. M. (1992) Consumer attitudes: king for a day, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, 77, 1–15.
  • Lovell, M. C. (2001) The predictive power of the index of consumer sentiment: comment and discussion, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2001, 208–14. doi:10.1353/eca.2001.0008
  • Ludvigson, S. C. (2004) Consumer confidence and consumer spending, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18, 29–50. doi:10.1257/0895330041371222
  • Mankiw, N. G. (1982) Hall’s consumption hypothesis and durable goods, Journal of Monetary Economics, 10, 417–25. doi:10.1016/0304-3932(82)90036-8
  • Møller, S. V., Nørholm, H. and Rangvid, J. (2014) Consumer confidence or the business cycle: what matters more for European expected returns?, Journal of Empirical Finance, 28, 230–48. doi:10.1016/j.jempfin.2014.07.004
  • Starr, M. A. (2012) Consumption, sentiment, and economic news, Economic Inquiry, 50, 1097–111. doi:10.1111/j.1465-7295.2010.00346.x
  • Van Oest, R. and Franses, P. H. (2008) Measuring changes in consumer confidence, Journal of Economic Psychology, 29, 255–75. doi:10.1016/j.joep.2007.10.001
  • Vosen, S. and Schmidt, T. (2011) Forecasting private consumption: survey-based indicators vs. google trends, Journal of Forecasting, 30, 565–78. doi:10.1002/for.1213

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.