Annual and spatial variation in adult and brood abundance in a sub-Arctic wader

References

• Alves, J.A., Dias, M.P., Méndez, V., Katrínardóttir, B. & Gunnarsson, T.G. 2016. Very rapid long-distance sea crossing by a migratory bird. Sci. Rep. 6: 38154. doi:10.1038/srep38154.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Alves, J.A., Gunnarsson, T.G., Sutherland, W.J., Potts, P.M. & Gill, J.A. 2019. Linking warming effects on phenology, demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population. Ecol. Evol. 9: 2365–2375.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Baines, D., Fletcher, K., Hesford, N., Newborn, D. & Richardson, M. 2022. Lethal predator control on UK moorland is associated with high breeding success of Curlew, a globally near-threatened wader. Eur. J. of Wildlife Res. 69. doi:10.1007/s10344-022-01631-5.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ballantyne, K. & Nol, E. 2011. Nesting habitat selection and hatching success of Whimbrels near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. Waterbirds 34: 151–159.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bates, D., Maechler, M., Bolker, B. & Walker, S. 2017. Package ‘lme4’ linear mixed-effects models using “Eigen” and S4. 111.
   Google Scholar
• Battin, J. 2004. When good animals love bad habitats: ecological traps and the conservation of animal populations. Conserv. Biol. 18: 1482–1491.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Beale, C.M., Dodd, S. & Pearce-Higgins, J.W. 2006. Wader recruitment indices suggest nesting success is temperature-dependent in Dunlin Calidris alpina. Ibis 148: 405–410.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Benton, T.G., Vickery, J.A. & Wilson, J.D. 2003. Farmland biodiversity: is habitat heterogeneity the key? Trends Ecol. Evol. 18: 182–188.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Berg, Å. 1997. Diversity and abundance of birds in relation to forest fragmentation, habitat quality and heterogeneity. Bird Study 44: 355–366.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Blomqvist, S., Holmgren, N., Åkesson, S., Hedenström, A. & Pettersson, J. 2002. Indirect effects of lemming cycles on sandpiper dynamics: 50 years of counts from southern Sweden. Oecologia 133: 146–158.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bock, C.E. & Jones, Z.F. 2012. Avian habitat evaluation: should counting birds count? Front Ecol. Evol. 2: 403–410.
   Google Scholar
• Bolton, M., Bamford, R., Blackburn, C., Cromarty, J., Eglington, S., Ratcliffe, N., Sharpe, F., Stanbury, A. & Smart, J. 2012. Assessment of simple survey methods to determine breeding population size and productivity of a plover, the Northern Lapwing Vanellus vanellus. Wader Study Group Bulletin 118: 141–152.
   Google Scholar
• Bowen, K.M., Dodd, S.G., Lindley, P., Burton, N.H.K. & Taylor, R.C. 2022. Curves for Curlew: identifying Curlew breeding status from GPS tracking data. Ecol. Evol. 12: e9509. doi:10.1002/ece3.9509.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brook, B.W. & Bradshaw, C.J.A. 2006. Strength of evidence for density dependence in abundance time series of 1198 species. Ecology 87: 1445–1451.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brown, A.F. & Shepherd, K.B. 1993. A method for censusing upland breeding waders. Bird Study 40: 189–195.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Calenge, C. 2011. Exploratory analysis of the habitat selection by the wildlife in R: the adehabitatHS Package. R CRAN Project: 1–60.
   Google Scholar
• Carneiro, C., Gunnarsson, T.G. & Alves, J.A. 2019. Faster migration in autumn than in spring: seasonal migration patterns and non-breeding distribution of Icelandic whimbrels Numenius phaeopus islandicus. J. Avian Biol. 50: e01938. doi:10.1111/jav.01938.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Collins, M., Knutti, R., Arblaster, J., Dufresne, J.-L., Fichefet, T., Friedlingstein, P., Gao, X., Gutowski, W.J., Johns, T., Krinner, G., Shongwe, M., Tebaldi, C., Weaver, A.J., Wehner, M.F., Allen, M.R., Andrews, T., Beyerle, U., Bitz, C.M., Bony, S. & Booth, B.B.B. 2013. Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility. In Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M.M.B., Allen, S.K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V. & Midgley, P.M. (ed) Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1029–1136. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, New York NY USA.
   Google Scholar
• Cuddington, K. 2011. Legacy effects: the persistent impact of ecological interactions. Biol. Theory. 6: 203–210.
   Google Scholar
• Davidar, P., Yoganand, K. & Ganesh, T. 2001. Distribution of forest birds in the Andaman islands: importance of key habitats. J. Biogeogr. 28: 663–671.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Delany, S., Scott, D., Helmink, A.T.F., Dodman, T., Flink, S., Stroud, D. & Haanstra, L. (Eds). 2009. An Atlas of Wader Populations in Africa and Western Eurasia. Wetlands International, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
   Google Scholar
• Dixon, P. 2003. VEGAN, a package of R functions for community ecology. J. Veg. Sci. 14: 927–930.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Douglas, D.J.T., Tománková, I., Gullett, P., Dodd, S.G., Brown, D., Clift, M., Russell, N., Warnock, N., Smart, J. & Sanders, S. 2023. Varying response of breeding waders to experimental manipulation of their habitat and predators. J. Nat. Conserv. 72: 126353.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Durant, D., Tichit, M. & Kernéïs, E. 2008. Management of agricultural wet grasslands for breeding waders: integrating ecological and livestock system perspectives – a review. Biodivers. Conserv. 17: 2275–2295.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Elliott, L.H., Igl, L.D. & Johnson, D.H. 2019. The relative importance of wetland area versus habitat heterogeneity for promoting species richness and abundance of wetland birds in the Prairie Pothole Region, USA. Condor 122: 1–21.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Feniuk, C., Balmford, A. & Green, R.E. 2019. Land sparing to make space for species dependent on natural habitats and high nature value farmland. Proc. R. Soc. B 286: 20191483.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Frauendorf, M., Allen, A.M., Jongejans, E., Ens, B.J., Teunissen, W., Kampichler, C., van Turnhout, C.A.M.M., Bailey, L.D., de Kroon, H., Cremer, J., Kleyheeg, E., Nienhuis, J. & van de Pol, M. 2022. Love thy neighbour? Spatial variation in density dependence of nest survival in relation to predator community. Divers. Distrib. 28: 624–635.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ganter, B. & Boyd, H. 2000. A tropical volcano, high predation pressure, and breeding biology of Arctic waterbirds: a circumpolar review of breeding failure in the summer of 1992. Arctic 53: 289–305.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gilroy, J.J. & Sutherland, W.J. 2007. Beyond ecological traps: perceptual errors and undervalued resources. Trends Ecol. Evol. 22: 351–356.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Grant, M.C. 1989. The breeding ecology of the Whimbrel (Numenius phaeopus) in Shetland: with particular reference to the effects of agricultural improvements of heathland nesting habitats. PhD thesis. Durham University.
   Google Scholar
• Grant, M.C., Lodge, C., Moore, N., Easton, J., Orsman, C. & Smith, M. 2000. Estimating the abundance and hatching success of breeding Curlew Numenius arquata using survey data. Bird Study 47: 41–51.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Green, R., Cornell, S., Scharlemann, J. & Balmford, A. 2005. Farming and the fate of wild nature. Science 307: 550–555.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gunnarsson, T.G. 2010. Contrasting the flexibility of schedules in related species with different migration strategies: Black-Tailed Godwits and Whimbrels breeding in Iceland. Wader Study Group Bul. 117: 46–50.
   Google Scholar
• Gunnarsson, T.G. 2020. Losing space for breeding waders. Wader Study Group Bull. 127: 178–182.
   Google Scholar
• Gunnarsson, T.G., Gill, J.A., Appleton, G.F., Gíslason, H., Gardarsson, A., Watkinson, A.R. & Sutherland, W.J. 2006. Large-scale habitat associations of birds in lowland Iceland: implications for conservation. Biol. Conserv. 128: 265–275.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gunnarsson, T.G., Gill, J.A., Petersen, A., Appleton, G.F. & Sutherland, W.J. 2005. A double buffer effect in a migratory shorebird population. J. Animal Ecol. 74: 965–971.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gunnarsson, T.G., Jóhannesdóttir, L., Alves, J.A., Þórisson, B. & Gill, J.A. 2017. Effects of spring temperature and volcanic eruptions on wader productivity. Ibis 159: 467–471.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hancock, M.H., Grant, M.C. & Wilson, J.D. 2009. Associations between distance to forest and spatial and temporal variation in abundance of key peatland breeding bird species. Bird Study 56: 53–64.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Harðardóttir, M. 2019. Ársskýrsla 2019. In Ársskýrsla Náttúrufræðistofnunar Íslands (Icelandic Institute of Natural History Annual report). Garðabæ, Náttúrufræðistofnunar Íslands.
   Google Scholar
• Hartig, F. & Lohse, L. 2022. Package DHARMa” residual diagnostics for hierarchical (multi-level/mixed) regression models. R Package Version 1: 1–65.
   Google Scholar
• Hijmans, R. & van Etten, J. 2014. Raster: raster: geographic data analysis and modeling. R Package Version 517: 2–12.
   Google Scholar
• Hof, A.R., Rodríguez-Castañeda, G., Allen, A.M., Jansson, R. & Nilsson, C. 2017. Vulnerability of Subarctic and Arctic breeding birds. Ecolo. Appl. 27: 219–234.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• The Icelandic Road and Coastal Administration (IRCA). 2022. Retrieved from https://www.vegagerdin.is/upplysingar-og-utgafa/umferdin/umfthjodvegum/.
   Google Scholar
• International Wader Study Group. 2003. Waders are declining worldwide. Conclusions from the 2003 International Wader Study Group Conference, Cádiz, Spain. Wader Study Group Bull. 101/102: 8–12.
   Google Scholar
• IUCN. 2022. The IUCN red list of threatened species. Version 2022-2. https://www.iucnredlist.org. Accessed on 2023.
   Google Scholar
• Jarrett, D., Lehikoinen, A. & Willis, S. 2023. Monitoring wader breeding productivity. Ibis. doi:10.1111/ibi.13298.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Johnson, M.D. 2007. Measuring habitat quality: a review. Condor 109: 489–504.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jonsson, M., Englund, G. & Wardle, D.A. 2011. Direct and indirect effects of area, energy and habitat heterogeneity on breeding bird communities. J. Biogeogr. 38: 1186–1196.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jóhannesdóttir, L., Alves, J.A., Gill, J.A. & Gunnarsson, T.G. 2017. Reconciling biodiversity conservation and agricultural expansion in the subarctic environment of Iceland. Ecol. Soc. 22: Art. 16. doi:10.5751/ES-08956-220116.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jóhannesdóttir, L., Alves, J.A., Gill, J.A. & Gunnarsson, T.G. 2018. Use of agricultural land by breeding waders in low-intensity farming landscapes. Anim. Conserv. 21: 291–301.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jóhannesdóttir, L., Arnalds, Ó, Brink, S. & Gunnarsson, T.G. 2014. Identifying important bird habitats in a sub-Arctic area undergoing rapid land-use change. Bird Study 61: 544–552.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jóhannesdóttir, L., Gill, J.A., Alves, J.A., Brink, S.H., Arnalds, Ó, Méndez, V. & Gunnarsson, T.G. 2019. Interacting effects of agriculture and landscape on breeding wader populations. Agr. Ecosyst. Environ. 272: 246–253.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jónsson, J.E. & Gunnarsson, T.G. 2010. Predator chases by breeding waders: interspecific comparison of three species nesting in Iceland. Wader Study Group Bull. 117: 145–149.
   Google Scholar
• Julliard, R., Jiguet, F. & Couvet, D. 2004. Evidence for the impact of global warming on the long-term population dynamics of common birds. P. Roy. Soc. B-Biol. Sci. 271: S490–S492.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Katrínardóttir, B., Alves, J.A., Sigurjónsdóttir, H., Hersteinsson, P. & Gunnarsson, T.G. 2015. The effects of habitat type and volcanic eruptions on the breeding demography of Icelandic Whimbrels Numenius phaeopus. PLoS One 10: 1–15.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Klima, J., Ballantyne, K., Perz, J., Johnson, A.S., Jackson, J.A., Lamarre, J.F. & McKinnon, L. 2013. North American longevity records for American Golden Plover Pluvialis Dominica and Whimbrel Numenius phaeopus from Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. Wader Study Group Bull. 120: 134–135.
   Google Scholar
• Kneib, T., Knauer, F. & Küchenhoff, H. 2011. A general approach to the analysis of habitat selection. Environ. Ecol. Stat. 18: 1–25.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kolbeinsson, Y., Einarsson, Á, Garðarsson, A., Örn, A. & Lindberg, Þ. 2020. Ástand fuglastofna í Þingeyjasýslum 2019–2020 (Status of bird populations in Þingeyjasýslur counties, NE-Iceland 2019-–2020). Report for the ministry of Environment from the Northeast Iceland Nature Research Centre in collaboration with the Lake Mývatn Research Centre (in Icelandic).
   Google Scholar
• Kwon, E., English, W.B., Weiser, E.L., Franks, S.E., Hodkinson, D.J., Lank, D.B. & Sandercock, B.K. 2018. Delayed egg-laying and shortened incubation duration of Arctic-breeding shorebirds coincide with climate cooling. Ecol. Evol. 8: 1339–1351.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Laidlaw, R.A., Gunnarsson, T.G., Méndez, V., Carneiro, C., Þórisson, B., Wentworth, A., Gill, J.A. & Alves, J.A. 2020. Vegetation structure influences predation rates of early nests in subarctic breeding waders. Ibis 162: 1225–1236.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lamarre, J.F., Legagneux, P., Gauthier, G., Reed, E.T. & Bêty, J. 2017. Predator-mediated negative effects of overabundant snow geese on Arctic-nesting shorebirds. Ecosphere. 8: e01788.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lappo, E.G. Tomkovick, P. & Syroechkovsky, E.E. 2012. Numenius phaeopus – Whimbrel. In Atlas of breeding waders in the Russian arctic. UF Ofsetnaya Pechat, Moscow, Russia (English summary).
   Google Scholar
• Larsen, T., Sordahl, T.A. & Byrkjedal, I. 1996. Factors related to aggressive nest protection behaviour: a comparative study of Holarctic waders. Biol. J. Lin. Soc. 58: 409–439.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lárusdóttir, Á, Guðmundsdóttir, E., Jóhannsdótir, E.E., Óskarsdóttir, G., Stefánsson, H.W., Helgason, H.H., Ármannsson, H., Ágústsdóttir, K., Þórarinsdóttir, R. & Þórisson, S. 2019. East Iceland Nature Research Centre annual report (in Icelandic).
   Google Scholar
• Leclère, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S.H., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F.A., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M.B., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G.M., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R.E., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlík, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A.J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D.C., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B., van Vuuren, D.P., Ware, C., Watson, J.E., Wu, W. & Young, L.E. 2020. Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy. Nature 585: 551–556.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lindström, Å, Green, M., Husby, M., Kålås, J.A. & Lehikoinen, A. 2015. Large-scale monitoring of waders on their boreal and Arctic breeding grounds in Northern Europe. Ardea 103: 3–15.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lindström, Å, Green, M., Husby, M., Kålås, J.A., Lehikoinen, A. & Stjernman, M. 2019. Population trends of waders on their boreal and Arctic breeding grounds in Northern Europe. Wader Study Group Bull. 126 (3): 200–216.
   Google Scholar
• Lorenzón, R.E., Beltzer, A.H., Olguin, P.F. & Ronchi-Virgolini, A.L. 2016. Habitat heterogeneity drives bird species richness, nestedness and habitat selection by individual species in fluvial wetlands of the Paraná River, Argentina. Austral Ecol. 41: 829–841.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Machín, P., Fernández-Elipe, J., Hungar, J., Angerbjörn, A., Klaassen, R.H.G. & Aguirre, J.I. 2019. The role of ecological and environmental conditions on the nesting success of waders in sub-Arctic Sweden. Polar Biol. 42: 1571–1579.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mallory, E.P. 1982. Territoriality of Whimbrels Numenius phaeopus hudsonicus wintering in Panama. Wader Study Group Bull. 34: 37–39.
   Google Scholar
• Manly, B., McDonald, L., Thomas, D., MacDonald, T. & Erickson, W. 2002. Resource selection by animals. In Statistical Design and Analysis for Field Studies, 14–31. Kluwer Academic Publisher, Boston.
   Google Scholar
• McKinnon, L., Picotin, M., Bolduc, E., Juillet, C. & Bêty, J. 2012. Timing of breeding, peak food availability, and effects of mismatch on chick growth in birds nesting in the High Arctic. Can. J. Zool. 90: 961–971.
   Google Scholar
• Meltofte, H., Durinck, J., Jakobsen, B., Nordstrøm, C. & Rigét, F.F. 2019. Trends in the autumn passage numbers of Arctic and Boreal waders in W. Denmark 1964–2017 as a contribution to East Atlantic flyway population trends. Ardea 107: 197–201.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Meltofte, H., Piersma, T., Boyd, H., McCaffery, B., Ganter, B., Golovnyuk, V.V., Graham, K., Gratto-Trevor, C.L., Morrison, R.I.G., Nol, E., Rösner, H.-U., Schamel, D., Schekkerman, H., Soloviev, M.Y., Tomkovich, P.S., Tracy, D.M., Tulp, I. & Wennerberg, L. 2007. Effects of Climate Variation on the Breeding Ecology of Arctic Shorebirds. Meddelelser om Grønland Bioscience 59. Danish Polar Center, Copenhagen.
   Google Scholar
• Méndez, V., Alves, J.A., Gill, J.A. & Gunnarsson, T.G. 2018a. Patterns and processes in shorebird survival rates: a global review. Ibis 160: 723–741.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Méndez, V., Gill, J.A., Alves, J.A., Burton, N.H.K. & Davies, R.G. 2018b. Consequences of population change for local abundance and site occupancy of wintering waterbirds. Diver. Distrib. 24: 24–35.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ministry for the Environment and Natural Resources. 2018. Aðgerðaáætlun í loftslagsmálum 2018–2030 [Climate action plan 2018–2030]. Ministry for the Environment and Natural Resources (in Icelandic).
   Google Scholar
• Møller, A.P., Thorup, O. & Laursen, K. 2018. Predation and nutrients drive population declines in breeding waders. Ecol. Appl. 28: 1292–1301.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Muff, S., Nilsen, E.B., O'Hara, R.B. & Nater, C.R. 2022. Rewriting results sections in the language of evidence. Trends Ecol. Evol. 37: 203–210.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Murray, N.J., Marra, P.P., Fuller, R.A., Clemens, R.S., Dhanjal-Adams, K.L., Gosbell, K., Hassell, C.J., Iwamura, T., Melville, D.S., Minton, C.D., Riegen, A.C., Rogers, D.I., Woehler, E.J. & Studds, C.E. 2018. The large-scale drivers of population declines in a long-distance migratory shorebird. Ecography 41: 867–876.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Newbold, T., Hudson, L.N., Hill, S.L., Contu, S., Lysenko, I.V., Senior, R.A., Börger, L., Bennett, D.J., Choimes, A., Collen, B., Day, J.L., Palma, A.D., Díaz, S., Echeverría-Londoño, S., Edgar, M.J., Feldman, A., Garon, M., Harrison, M.L., Alhusseini, T.I., Ingram, D.J., Itescu, Y., Kattge, J., Kemp, V.A., Kirkpatrick, L., Kleyer, M., Correia, D.L., Martin, C.D., Meiri, S., Novosolov, M., Pan, Y., Phillips, H.R., Purves, D., Robinson, A.N., Simpson, J.E., Tuck, S.L., Weiher, E., White, H.J., Ewers, R.M., Mace, G.M., Scharlemann, J.P. & Purvis, A. 2015. Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity. Nature 520: 45–50.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ottósson, J.G., Sveinsdóttir, A. & Harðardóttir, M. 2016. Vistgerðir á Íslandi nr. 54. 299 (Ecotypes in Iceland). Fjölrit Náttúrufræðistofnunar (in Icelandic), Garðabæ.
   Google Scholar
• Page, G.W., Stenzel, L.E., Winkler, D.W. & Swarth, C.W. 1983. Spacing out at Mono Lake: breeding success, nest density, and predation in the Snowy Plover. Auk 100: 13–24.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pálsdóttir, A.E. 2022. Effects of land conversion in sub-arctic landscapes on densities of ground-nesting birds. PhD thesis in Biology. University of Iceland.
   Google Scholar
• Pálsdóttir, A.E., Gill, J.A., Alves, J.A., Pálsson, S., Méndez, V., Ewing, H. & Gunnarsson, T.G. 2022a. Subarctic afforestation: effects of forest plantations on ground-nesting birds in lowland Iceland. J. Appl. Ecol. 59: 2456–2467.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pálsdóttir, A.E., Gill, J.A., Pálsson, S., Alves, J.A., Méndez, V., Þórisson, B. & Gunnarsson, T.G. 2022b. Effects of overhead power-lines on the density of ground-nesting birds in open sub-Arctic habitats. Ibis 164: 1257–1264.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pearce-Higgins, J.W., Brown, D.J., Douglas, D.J., Alves, J.A., Bellio, M., Bocher, P., Buchanan, G.M., Clay, R.P., Conklin, J.R., Crockford, N.J., Dann, P., Elts, J., Friis, C., Fuller, R.A., Gill, J.A., Gosbell, K., Johnson, J.A., Márquez-Ferrando, R., Masero, J.A., Melville, D.S., Millington, S., Minton, C.D., Mundkur, T., Nol, E., Pehlak, H., Piersma, T., Robin, F., Rogers, D.I., Ruthrauff, D.R., Senner, N.R., Shah, J.N., Sheldon, R.D., Soloviev, S.A., Tomkovich, P.S. & Verkuil, Y.I. 2017. A global threats overview for Numeniini populations: synthesising expert knowledge for a group of declining migratory birds. Bird Conserv. Int. 27: 6–34.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• R Core Team. 2021. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Viena, Austria.
   Google Scholar
• Rodenhouse, N.L., Scott Sillett, T., Doran, P.J. & Holmes, R.T. 2003. Multiple density–dependence mechanisms regulate a migratory bird population during the breeding season, 203–216. P. Roy. Soc. B-Biol. Sci. 270: 2105–2110.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rosenberg, K.V., Dokter, A.M., Blancher, P.J., Sauer, J.R., Smith, A.C., Smith, P.A., Stanton, J.C., Panjabi, A., Helft, L., Parr, M. & Marra, P.P. 2019. Decline of the North American avifauna. Science 366: 120–124.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Saalfeld, S.T., Hill, B.L., Hunter, C.M., Frost, C.J. & Lanctot, R.B. 2021. Warming Arctic summers unlikely to increase productivity of shorebirds through renesting. Sci. Rep. 11: 1–13.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Saha, S.K., Rinke, A. & Dethloff, K. 2006. Future winter extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Arctic. Geophy. Res. Lett. 33: 1–4.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Skarphéðinsson, K.H., Katrínardóttir, B., Guðmundsson, G.A. & Auhage, S.N.V. 2016. Mikilvæg fuglavæði á Íslandi (Important Birds in Iceland). Fjolrit Náttúrufrædistofnunar (in Icelandic), Garðabæ.
   Google Scholar
• Skeel, M.A. 1983. Nesting success, density, philopatry, and nest-site selection of the Whimbrel (Numenius phaoepus) in different habitats (Churchill, Manitoba). Can. J. Zoo. 61: 218–225.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Smith, P.A., Mckinnon, L., Meltofte, H., Lanctot, R.B., Fox, A.D., Leafloor, J.O., Soloviev, M., Franke, A., Falk, K., Golovatin, M., Sokolov, V., Sokolov, A. & Smith, A.C. 2020. Status and trends of tundra birds across the circumpolar Arctic. Ambio 49: 732–748.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stroud, D., Reed, T.M. & Harding, N.J. 1990. Do moorland breeding waders avoid plantation edges? Bird Study 37: 177–186.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Valkama, J., Currie, D., Korpimäki, E., Valkama, J., Currie, D., Korpimäki, E. & Ecology, S. 1999. Differences in the intensity of nest predation in the Curlew Numenius arquata: a consequence of land use and predator densities? Écoscience 6: 497–504.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Van Horne, B. 1983. Density as a misleading indicator of habitat quality. J. Wildlife Manage. 47: 893–901.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Watts, B.D., Smith, F.M., Hamilton, D.J., Keyes, T., Paquet, J., Pirie-Dominix, L., Rausch, J., Truitt, B., Winn, B. & Woodard, P.F. 2019. Seasonal variation in mortality rates for Whimbrels (Numenius phaeopus) using the Western Atlantic Flyway. Condor 121: 1–13.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wauchope, H.S., Shaw, J.D., Varpe, Ø, Lappo, E.G. Boertmann, D., Lanctot, R.B. & Fuller, R.A. 2017. Rapid climate-driven loss of breeding habitat for Arctic migratory birds. Glob. Change Biol. 23: 1085–1094.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• White, E.R. 2019. Minimum time required to detect population trends: the need for long-term monitoring programs. BioScience 69: 40–46.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wilson, J.D., Anderson, R., Bailey, S., Chetcuti, J., Cowie, N.R., Hancock, M.H., Quine, C.P., Russell, N., Stephen, L., Thompson, D.B.A. & Elphick, C. 2014. Modelling edge effects of mature forest plantations on peatland waders informs landscape-scale conservation. J. Appl. Ecol. 51: 204–213.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• WWF. 2022. Living Planet Report 2022 – Building a nature positive society. In Almond, R.E.A., Grooten, M., Juffe Bignoli, D. & Petersen, T. (eds). WWF, Gland, Switzerland.
   Google Scholar
• Zöckler, C. 2012. Status, threat, and protection of Arctic waterbirds. In Huettmann, F. (ed) Protection of the Three Poles, 203–216. Springer, Tokyo.
   Google Scholar
• Zöckler, C., Delany, S. & Hagemeijer, W. 2003. Wader populations are declining – how will we elucidate the reasons? Wader Study Group Bull 100: 202–211.
   Google Scholar
• Zöckler, C. & Lysenko, I. 2000. Water Birds on the Edge: First Circumpolar Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Arctic Breeding Water Birds. WCMC Biodiversity Series No. 11. World Conservation Press, Cambridge.
   Google Scholar